Yas Marina: Ferrari SF-24 in third sector with 16°C more on the rear | Abu Dhabi GP quali analysis. The determining factor for pole position in Abu Dhabi was the third sector.

Today, Ferrari wasted a potential pole position in the qualifying session for the Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Besides this somewhat aggressive statement, let’s calmly explain the reasons. After yesterday’s session, we had defined the Ferrari as a car with good balance but still with some margin to extract. The car had a certain degree of understeer, especially in the first sector, while in the third sector, it showed some problems in the 9th corner. In addition to this, there was also intensive work from the drivers in understanding how to best exploit the SF-24 throughout the lap.

The Maranello team made some adjustments to the setup of the SF24 single-seater in order to address certain critical areas related to the track. They did this by managing the understeer issues in Turn 1, although they were not able to completely eliminate this behavior. In Turn 5, both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz could have been tighter on entry, reaching the apex and applying power earlier. Some work was done here to advance the mechanical balance, improving the lateral load transfer on entry. Turn 5 is a very technical and complex corner for everyone.

There was fine-tuning in Turn 9, where it seems they worked on the vertical stiffness of the car. Specifically, Ferrari worked on the so-called bump-stop, reducing the suspension travel. This limited the vertical movement of the car. In fact, we had pointed out that in Turn 9, during the peak lateral load, there was a bit of porpoising from the floor, which was barely noticeable today. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz made better use of the car in this section, entering and navigating much more tightly.

On exit, however, they continued to cover more distance than the McLaren, which remained the car to beat in this aspect. In the third sector, the Ferrari cars arrived with slightly overheated tires. As a result, work was done on the tire warm-up strategy. After evaluating between yesterday and today, the chosen tactic was to start the lap with 3°C less on the rear tires. The front right tire was perfectly at temperature, namely no delta, while the left was 2°C lower.

The right front tire was at the correct temperature for a clear reason: to provide the tires with the ability to limit understeer in the first corner of the track. However, at the finish line, both Ferrari cars arrived with too much heat on the rear. The rear was 16°C above the target, while the front right was nearly 20°C above. A situation that, as we can imagine, severely limited Ferrari’s performance, as they did not have the necessary grip to maintain optimal performance.

McLaren did what it had to, but it wasn’t faster. This is also evident from the mistakes made by the drivers during qualifying and even during the lap that ultimately put them on the front row. Lando Norris made a small mistake in Turn 9 and, in the section under the hotel, made small corrections on the steering wheel on entry, indicating that the rear was a bit too hot. Overall, they were fast, though. They confirmed yesterday’s aerodynamic setup with a medium-load wing. In terms of top speeds, they’re not on par with Ferrari, but slightly behind.

On the various straights, the red car always gained. At the end of the straight leading to Turn 6, McLaren arrived at the braking zone 5 km/h slower than the Italian car. This will be an important data point for tomorrow’s race. The overall handling was good in the high-speed corners, and they focused on low-speed corners. In Turn 1, they were always excellent, with much less understeer than the SF-24, but in Turn 5, they often lost the apex, covering more distance. Only in Q3, on the final attempt, did the drivers manage to control this factor, though they showed imperfect traction.

All of this meant that, both in S1 and S2, the cars competing for the Constructors’ Championship were on par. The determining factor for pole position was the third sector, where the Ferrari was affected by too much overheating. McLaren also had a certain degree of overheating, but the Ferrari drivers did not manage it well. Sainz could have done better in terms of sensitivity, considering the various excellent laps during qualifying, where the two Ferrari drivers were able to manage the car better in S3, even though they were far from the optimal temperatures.

Finally, let’s talk about Red Bull, which many thought could take pole position. Nothing could be further from the truth, or rather, it would have been impossible without Max Verstappen, who always brings a lot of his own talent. The car maintained a level of understeer that was almost “chronic,” although significantly reduced compared to yesterday. Already in Turn 1, the car was not always handling well, and in Turn 5, Max almost never managed to hit the apex. Then, in the 6-7 chicane, he applied too much steering angle on throttle, making it ineffective. In Turn 9, he entered well, but it was as if the front end was locked, dragging him to the outside.

For this reason, the Red Bull driven by the four-time Formula 1 World Champion was forced to cover much more distance than its direct competitors. In his good lap, Max Verstappen had still managed to put together many small “miracles,” but he threw it all away at the last corner, where he was unable to control his car as he had done earlier. To conclude, let us examine the data related to the of ideal times, obtained by summing the best sector times for each driver and comparing them with a reference lap, which was obtained by summing the best overall sectors.

As we can see from the data, Max Verstappen was 0.36 seconds off the absolute performance and, in general, was far from being able to claim pole position. The Red Bull driver complained a lot about suffering from so-called “under rotation” in the faster sections of the Emirati track. This characteristic, in turn, caused overheating of the front axle and compromised his performance in the final sector. We also see that the standings largely align with the grid, with Nico Hülkenberg even setting the fastest time in the middle sector.