Ferrari recovers at the last minute, but McLaren exploits its strength | Abu Dhabi GP telemetry data. In the third sector of Yas Marina, McLaren reappears like in Singapore.

With a lethal one-two, McLaren puts a serious hold on the Constructors’ Championship. The Abu Dhabi qualifying sessions confirm the state of grace of the Woking team, appreciated throughout the weekend, softening the regret for unexpected issues at Ferrari. The Scuderia appears reinvigorated by the last-minute adjustments to the setup, though it is clear that bringing the championship back to Maranello will require a feat. Greater hope lies with Haas, who, with the extraordinary Nico Hulkenberg, aims to reclaim sixth place in the championship.

In Abu Dhabi, both title contenders opt for a similar setup strategy, focusing on a high level of aerodynamic downforce to heat the tires quickly and limit their slip, paying the price of being the slowest in the speed traps at the end of the straight. However, the approach pays off for both teams, especially for Woking. Unlike Ferrari, McLaren manages to make the difference in the technical third sector, gaining at least two-tenths on the entire competition.

The final sector of Abu Dhabi is characterized by a sequence of short, medium-low speed corners, reminiscent of those street circuits that favor corner exit traction. It is no coincidence that in this section McLaren displays a dominance similar to what was seen in Singapore and Zandvoort. When it comes to controlling rear tire overheating, the MCL38 proves to be the best car, a strength that secures a stronghold on the Abu Dhabi victory, along with the Constructors’ title. “When there are medium-speed corners, it feels like we are the best car,” confirms Andrea Stella. The effectiveness in the third sector lays the best groundwork for tire management during the race, with McLaren aiming to maintain the lead in the first half before pulling away after the pit stop, when the MCL38 becomes more competitive with an empty fuel tank.

“I believe in miracles,” says Charles Leclerc in front of the journalists in the paddock. In fact, at this point, a supernatural intervention would be needed to allow Ferrari to regain the Constructors’ Championship. However, there is good news for the Scuderia, having regained competitiveness after a difficult trio of free practice sessions. “We changed the car quite a bit from FP3, and I think we went in the right direction,” says the Monegasque driver. In qualifying, Ferrari succeeds where it had struggled up to that point, attacking the time with tires ready from the start and matching McLaren’s times in the first sector.

Overall, the SF-24 appears much more balanced than at the start of the weekend, with Carlos Sainz coming just 9 thousandths behind Oscar Piastri in second. It is known that Ferrari is more competitive in the race than in qualifying, but the long-term pace remains an unknown after the poor results on Friday with the previous setup configuration. Carlos Sainz will have the daunting task of defeating the two McLarens, while a comeback from the back for Leclerc seems even more unlikely, especially now possibly with a completely new power unit. If necessary, Maranello will work overnight to perfect the most aggressive engine mapping possible, in an attempt to make that miracle happen in which the Scuderia continues to believe.

Max Verstappen will start from fourth position, reflecting on the limitations of the RB20 exposed by the Abu Dhabi track: “We know we are good in medium and high-speed corners, but here there are some that are more medium-low speed. This has always been a bit of our weakness.” Yet, the world champion shows first-row potential but misses out on the final decisive lap.

Red Bull deserves credit for solving the understeering issues from Friday. However, in qualifying, Verstappen complains about a balance that evolves through the various phases of corner entry, mid-corner, and exit. The Dutch driver doesn’t miss the opportunity to set the development agenda for 2025: “We know that if we solve our problems, we’d find a lot of time per lap. It needs to be done because the balance oscillations make it very difficult to find a good compromise with the tools we have in the car. We need to work on this for next year.” The last qualifying of the season is the perfect picture of Red Bull at the end of the year: a car once again competitive and fighting for top positions, but still far from perfection and beatable.

After the joys of Las Vegas and Qatar, the Silver Arrows return to the back of the grid. Lewis Hamilton, eliminated in Q1, suffers from the impact of a cone hit at the end of the final sector, as well as a preparation lap heavily hindered by traffic. George Russell, on the other hand, advances to Q3 but only manages seventh place. Unlike previous events, the Yas Marina circuit and temperatures do not highlight Mercedes’ strengths, with the team’s weekend preparations influenced by experiments on the setup to improve their understanding of ground effect for 2025.

“We tried some pretty drastic things with the car,” confirms Russell. “In the last few weekends, there have been a lot of Sprint races, so we almost got into the mentality that this was a test weekend for us. A lot was done on the car, and we tried numerous things, and I think maybe we got lost.” The team is now preparing for a final race that is unlikely to bring much excitement, aiming to close out 2024 and focus on the new season as soon as possible.

In the back of the grid, the other world battle unfolds, this one for sixth place. The penalty drops Haas’ Hulkenberg to seventh, but the potential shown throughout the weekend suggests an attacking race. “The characteristics of this track suit our car. A good part of our development has focused on medium-speed corners, and there are many of those here,” reflects the German. The goal will be to recover 6 points on Alpine, which struggled throughout the weekend before regaining competitiveness at the last minute, with Gasly starting from the third row. Just behind, Valtteri Bottas will start, managing the feat of qualifying the Sauber into Q3, confirming its progress. The future Audi team arrives at the last race with new updates to the floor, which will also be evaluated during the Tuesday tests ahead of 2025. However, Binotto has been clear: the goal will be to win by 2030.