Former Formula 1 driver and current Sky Sport F1 analyst Ivan Capelli has offered a detailed assessment of the current Formula 1 landscape, focusing heavily on Ferrari’s ongoing performance issues and the long-term driver market involving Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, and Max Verstappen.
Speaking in an in-depth interview with f1ingenerale.com, Ivan Capelli discussed how the 2026 technical regulations, emerging team hierarchies, and rising stars like Kimi Antonelli are reshaping the competitive order in Formula 1. However, the main focus of his analysis remained Ferrari’s difficult situation in Maranello and the uncertain direction of the driver market at the top of the grid.
2026 Formula 1 regulations and the challenges of hybrid balance
Ivan Capelli explained that the current regulatory philosophy in Formula 1 was based on an overly optimistic interpretation of the hybrid power unit concept. According to his analysis, FIA engineers initially underestimated the complexity of achieving a perfect 50/50 split between internal combustion and electrical energy deployment.
He reportedly noted that several technical teams had already identified simulation issues before the start of the season, suggesting that the performance model required refinement. Even at circuits like Miami, which are considered less demanding in terms of energy recovery, minor regulatory adjustments were still necessary to balance performance and efficiency across the grid.
Despite these challenges, Ivan Capelli highlighted that Formula 1 continues to serve as a technological laboratory for automotive innovation, especially with the introduction of fully sustainable fuels that allow modern cars to exceed speeds of 330 km/h. However, he also stressed that the FIA must regularly update regulations to maintain safety standards, since continuous performance evolution would otherwise lead to increasing cornering speeds and more complex circuit homologation requirements.
Ferrari performance concerns and the battle with Mercedes and McLaren
Turning his attention to the competitive order, Ivan Capelli explained that Mercedes currently holds a clear advantage in power unit performance. McLaren, using the same engine architecture, remains competitive but lacks full operational data to extract maximum performance potential from it.
He also praised McLaren’s strong tyre management, pointing out their impressive one-two finish in the Sprint race under extremely high track temperatures exceeding 50°C. According to Ivan Capelli, this highlights how modern Formula 1 success depends not only on raw speed but also on operational precision and tyre optimisation.
One of the most notable revelations in his analysis concerned rising Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli, who has reportedly exceeded expectations with three consecutive victories. Ivan Capelli suggested that this unexpected performance has placed significant pressure on George Russell, who entered the season as a title contender but is now struggling to recover momentum after a series of setbacks.
Regarding Ferrari, Ivan Capelli described the situation as particularly delicate. Based on onboard analysis of Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc during the Miami Grand Prix, he concluded that the SF-26 is operating at the limit of its performance window. While Ferrari may still show strong mechanical and aerodynamic grip in certain phases, the overall package suffers significantly in energy management and acceleration phases compared to rivals.
He explained that Ferrari drivers are able to gain time in cornering sections, but lose the same advantage on straights and exits due to power delivery limitations. In his view, only the Monaco Grand Prix currently presents a realistic opportunity for a Ferrari victory, given its unique low-speed characteristics.
Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen: future decisions in Formula 1
Ivan Capelli also addressed speculation surrounding the future of Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, and Max Verstappen. He suggested that the driver market at the top of Formula 1 is currently extremely limited, with most competitive seats already occupied at Mercedes and McLaren.
The Italian argued that Charles Leclerc’s best strategic option remains staying at Ferrari, emphasizing the importance of continuity and long-term project development in Maranello. According to Ivan Capelli, the Monegasque would benefit from remaining committed to the team in the hope of a future season where Ferrari can provide a clear technical advantage from the very beginning of the championship.
Max Verstappen’s situation, however, was described as more complex. Ivan Capelli suggested that the Dutch driver is no longer surrounded by the same technical structure that previously defined his success at Red Bull, following the departure of key figures like Christian Horner, Adrian Newey, and race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase from their previous roles.
He speculated that Max Verstappen could eventually consider a move to Mercedes, particularly in a scenario where George Russell’s position becomes uncertain. Ivan Capelli also pointed to Verstappen’s growing attention towards Kimi Antonelli as a possible indication of interest or strategic positioning within the evolving Mercedes structure.
Overall, Ivan Capelli concluded that the current Formula 1 driver market is entering a transitional phase, where long-term decisions made by Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, and Max Verstappen could define the competitive hierarchy for years to come.
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