Ferrari: The tracks where the SF-25 can realistically aim for victory in the second half of the 2025 season. Jolyon Palmer believes Ferrari can win in 2025, highlighting circuits like Singapore and Monza.

Ferrari expected to return to winning ways: the tracks where the SF-25 has the best chances of success

Scuderia Ferrari has yet to secure a single race win in the 2025 FIA Formula One World Championship, a season in which the Maranello-based team continues to struggle with the limitations of the current SF-25 car project. Unlike their competitors—most notably McLaren, which has emerged as the dominant force this year—Ferrari has remained winless so far. However, former Formula 1 driver and current analyst Jolyon Palmer has pointed out the circuits where the SF-25 might finally have a realistic shot at climbing to the top step of the podium.

A critical factor will be the performance impact of Ferrari’s new rear suspension, which is set to make its race weekend debut at the upcoming Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps. This represents the team’s final major technical upgrade for the 2025 season, and it could help shift momentum in the second half of the championship, just as a mid-season resurgence did in 2024. In the short term, Ferrari will also be hoping for a dry weekend in Belgium, as rain could interfere with the proper evaluation of the update.

The races where Ferrari can realistically aim for victory

Speaking on the popular F1 Nation podcast, former Renault and Lotus F1 driver Jolyon Palmer offered his insights into the tracks where Ferrari may finally convert performance into victory. His analysis is based on what has been observed so far during the current campaign and takes into account the SF-25’s characteristics and historical strengths.

According to Jolyon Palmer, Ferrari is likely to win at least one race before the season ends. He believes that the Singapore Grand Prix offers a strong opportunity, drawing comparisons to the team’s competitive pace around the tight streets of Monaco earlier this year. He also identified the Italian Grand Prix at Monza as another potential high point, noting that Ferrari has traditionally shown strong pace at their home race. Palmer said it would be a “fairytale” outcome if either of Ferrari’s drivers—Charles Leclerc or Lewis Hamilton—could win at Monza in front of the Tifosi.

Jolyon Palmer further elaborated on the missed opportunities Ferrari has already had this season. In Monaco, Charles Leclerc was on provisional pole before both McLaren drivers improved on their second Q3 runs. In Canada, Ferrari appeared to have the pace to fight for victory, while at Silverstone the team was potentially in contention for the front row, although Lewis Hamilton lost significant time in key sectors.

All eyes will now turn to the new rear suspension and whether it can fix one of the SF-25’s major weaknesses: its sensitivity to ride height variations, which has compromised performance on uneven or bumpy tracks. The first signs of its effectiveness will emerge during Friday’s free practice session at Spa, which will also be the only opportunity for setup work before the Sprint format takes over the rest of the weekend. This is far from ideal for testing major upgrades, adding even more pressure to make every kilometer count.

If the new components deliver the expected gains, Ferrari may finally be in a position to challenge for victory—at least at the circuits where the SF-25’s current strengths can be maximized.