Ferrari loses two tenths in 5 corners: Red Bull’s turnaround and Carlos Sainz’s theory. Why Ferrari lost 0.2 seconds lost in the first sector to Red Bull.

It always seems out of place to talk about an unexpected pole position for Max Verstappen, but never before at Imola did the world champions manage a last-minute recovery. It was close to being a McLaren that secured the pole position, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris just a breath away with the two updated MCL38s. The two Ferrari cars were relatively further behind, with the gap almost entirely accumulated in the first sector, indicative of the SF-24’s limitations.

The credit for the world champions’ umpteenth pole position is to be shared equally between the driver and the team. On the one hand, Max Verstappen contributed significantly, putting together a perfect lap on one of the most technical tracks in the championship, made even more challenging by the return of gravel that highlights the drivers’ talent: “I wish there were 24 tracks like this,” commented the Dutchman. Max himself admitted he was not optimistic before qualifying: “If I had finished even in the top 5, I would have been happy.”

Throughout all three free practice sessions, the Dutchman struggled with his RB20, never so unhappy with the erratic balance and driving difficulties. It had happened on other occasions that Red Bull made blind setup changes before qualifying, like in Melbourne, Suzuka, and Miami. However, according to Max, those were simple refinements, whereas at Imola a complete setup overhaul was necessary, starting from a far-from-ideal base.

In Saturday morning’s free practice, the Dutchman still complained about difficulties in attacking the high curbs of Imola, contrary to what had previously appeared to be a strength. “We know that one of Red Bull’s strengths is how much they can push on the curbs,” commented Charles Leclerc. “I don’t know how much Max takes the curbs in turns 2 and 3; I know in previous weekends he took them a lot.” Like in the Singapore 2023 debacle, before qualifying, Red Bull still struggled to find the right setup, but this time they managed to turn the car around and put it back where it belongs.

The Maranello team cherished the dream of pole position at Imola for a long time, only to surrender to Verstappen’s recovery and the increasingly competitive McLaren duo with their updates. Charles Leclerc’s final gap to pole position was almost entirely due to the 0.2 seconds lost in the first sector, partly linked to difficulties in attacking the curbs of the Tamburello chicane. At Ferrari, the issue of getting the tires ready in qualifying also resurfaces, a concept different from simple heating.

“Charles talks about tire preparation, which is different,” explained Carlos Sainz on Thursday. “It’s about putting more or less energy into the front compared to the rear, to have them warmer in front and cooler in the rear, rather than the opposite. It’s something completely different from whether our car heats the tires or not.” Ferrari’s chronic difficulties in qualifying are not due to adequately heating the tires but in maintaining balanced temperatures on the front and rear from start to finish of the lap, without one of the two axles overheating.

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“Tire preparation is a matter of compromise between keeping the rear under control and having the front ready for the first sector,” explained a few weeks ago Simone Berra, Chief Engineer at Pirelli. “With such high ambient temperatures, balancing the axles is much more difficult, while it becomes easier in cooler conditions and on circuits rich in high-speed corners.” At Imola, however, McLaren also suffered significant delays from Red Bull in the first sector, with the impression that it was Verstappen making the difference, gaining 0.4 seconds on his teammate in the same corners, who was eliminated in Q2.

Carlos Sainz’s theory
It’s not tire heating that once again deprives Ferrari of their first pole position of the season. “I have a very different theory,” commented the Spaniard before the race. “For me, it’s not a matter of getting the tires up to temperature, simply that it’s a car that in qualifying goes a bit less than last year, while in the race it goes more. It’s a slightly different compromise than last year. For me, it’s not difficult to get the tires up to temperature. In qualifying, I feel everything is ready, but on the single lap, I’m further away, while in the race after a few laps it gets better. However, I don’t think the reason is the heating. The tire temperatures in qualifying are exactly the same as last year.”

On the other hand, it’s precisely the less aggressive tire usage that gives the 2024 Ferrari greater consistency over long distances. Even at Imola, the Reds stand out in race simulations, attracting the attention of their McLaren rivals. “I still think Ferrari is very competitive,” warned Team Principal Stella. “Some of the times seen in the long runs in practice, especially from Leclerc, were impressive to us. If they capitalize on them, we will not only have to look ahead but also at the Ferraris.” The disappointment for the Prancing Horse at the end of Saturday is therefore only partial. The missed pole is contrasted by a close gap to Red Bull and the awareness that Imola was not the best track to appreciate the latest updates.

McLaren: fast on and off the track
The standout of the day is McLaren, who will start from the front row with Lando Norris. Oscar Piastri’s penalty does not erase the mere 70 thousandths of a second behind Verstappen, a clear improvement from the 290 thousandths at Suzuka, which represented the smallest gap since the beginning of the year. If the absolute time wasn’t enough, consider that the percentage gap of the MCL38 from the RB20 at Imola was 0.10%, compared to the season average of 0.44%.

At Imola, McLaren was able to conduct more in-depth analyses of the latest updates, finding excellent aerodynamic correlation. The time gain on the stopwatch is even greater than simulations, a result of the drivers’ increased confidence in the car, not fully replicable in the simulator. The updates are also the first product of the new wind tunnel, a valuable tool for the rest of the season. “It’s not just that the data is better or that the wind tunnel reproduces the track more accurately,” commented Stella. “It does, but if I had to choose a main advantage, it actually speeds up the workflow in terms of development.” Words from the Team Principal that raise expectations for the upcoming qualifiers, with an increasingly fierce battle at the top.