The engines have turned off. The 2024 Formula 1 season, the longest in the history of this motorsport discipline with 24 events over 10 months, concluded last weekend with the final event of the season in Abu Dhabi and a post-season testing session at the 5.281-kilometre Yas Marina Circuit on Yas Island.
The just-concluded Formula 1 championship was one of the most competitive in recent decades, certainly in the so-called turbo-hybrid era, which started with Mercedes’ dominance in 2014, followed by Red Bull and Max Verstappen’s dominance.
Turning our backs on the recent past, the eight consecutive constructors’ titles won by the Mercedes team until 2021 will not be remembered as among the most competitive in Formula 1 history. Mercedes essentially had no rivals, except perhaps in the final year when the drivers’ championship went to Max Verstappen in 2021. The same can be said for the 2022 and 2023 Formula 1 seasons, which, thanks to the change in regulations, saw the dominance of the Austrian team.
The recently concluded season, however, saw a real battle between multiple contenders, both on the drivers’ front but even more so on the constructors’ side. Lando Norris tried to “disturb” Max Verstappen in the race for his fourth Formula 1 world title, while Ferrari and McLaren succeeded, in the not easy or predictable achievement in bridging the gap that Red Bull had accumulated in the first part of the season and eventually surpassing the reigning world champions. The final gap between McLaren, which ended the championship with 666 points, and Ferrari, who scored 652, was just 14 points at the end the Abu Dhabi race.
Fourteen points out of 24 Grand Prix means less than one point per race, and considering the six sprint races that awarded points, less than half a point per event. If we want to quantify it differently, 14 points is a third place, or a 4th and a 9th place more, or a 5th and an 8th place more, and so on.
Looking at the data from the last 10 years, it can be seen that the average points difference between the winning team of the constructors’ championship and the second-place team is over 200 points, 208 to be precise. The highest peak was last year, with Red Bull outscoring Mercedes by a staggering 451 points, while the smallest gap, after this year’s, was in 2021 with a close 28-point gap between Mercedes in P1 and Red Bull in P2.
With these considerations in mind, the focus now turns to next year. The 2025 Formula 1 season will feature a very stable technical and sporting regulation that should ensure further tightening of the on-track competition.
The world champion team, given the constant growth throughout the recently concluded season, should be able to easily remain among the top spots in the standings. Stability in the driver lineup could then help McLaren maintain more continuity. Ferrari, the second force this year, can rely on the emotional boost tied to the arrival of Lewis Hamilton and the fact that, under team principal Frederic Vasseur’s leadership, they have found a development continuity that had always been missing in previous years.
For Red Bull, there are two uncertainties: on one hand, the driver pairing, whether they decide to continue with Sergio Perez or switch to Liam Lawson, might not be on paper at the same level as McLaren’s and Ferrari’s driver pairs. Furthermore, from a technical standpoint, the loss of Adrian Newey and the “lost path” in the 2024 developments could be another critical point looking ahead to 2025.
Mercedes deserves a separate chapter. The technical crisis is deep and lasting. The difficulties in understanding the car and the correct direction for developments could resurface next year. Similar to Red Bull, the arrival of a very young driver could be a critical point when compared to this year’s top two teams and their driver pairings.
For the 2025 Formula 1 constructors’ championship title, we don’t see how any other team could break in, given the results of this year and also considering the driver lineup, which is certainly not on par—with all due respect—with that of McLaren and Ferrari.
Therefore, it looks like a two-way fight for the constructors’ title between McLaren and Ferrari. It is likely but not certain, given what Formula 1 teaches us, especially this year. If you remember, after the first four races this year, the championship seemed already decided in Red Bull’s favor. As we all know, things turned out differently. It should also be added that in 2025, developments during the year will be “conditioned” by the 2026 project, which will feature a major regulation change, so part of the season will have to be “sacrificed” to avoid arriving unprepared for the following one.
For now, our F1 prediction, with the engines of the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship just turned off, predicts McLaren and Ferrari will still be ahead of Red Bull and Mercedes.
— see video above —
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