Is the Constructors’ title lost for Ferrari? Perhaps. In F1, mistakes are unforgiving when it comes to crunch time. The Maranello team should have done better much earlier. Arriving at the final two races with a 24-point deficit, considering the unfavorable layouts ahead, could not have led to a different outcome than the one observed. The three months wasted trying to fix a car that refused to stay on track shattered Ferrari’s dreams. It was during that period that the Prancing Horse lost its chance to fight for the championship.
Without that “non-evolution” of the floor, developed under the technical direction of Italian aerodynamicist Enrico Cardile, Ferrari would now be competing for both titles with a strong chance of winning. Unfortunately, we know how it turned out. Once again, as has often been the case for many seasons, the Italian team lost its way. They strayed from the correct development path of the car, a recurring situation that always leads to the same result: losing. This is something Frederic Vasseur must address. If Ferrari wants to triumph in the 2025 Formula 1 season, these dynamics must be eliminated.
Let’s look at the facts. Ferrari failed to improve its performance. In the second F1 qualifying session of the weekend at the 5.419-kilometre Lusail International Circuit, it was behind McLaren, George Russell’s Mercedes, and even a relentless Max Verstappen with his RB20. The session yielded a result few expected: McLaren took a step back while Red Bull made significant progress, successfully refining their setup. Ferrari exhibited the same problems seen on Friday, albeit to a lesser extent.
Analyzing the onboard footage of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, an understeering behavior was evident on corner entry. This characteristic is easily noticeable: the drivers turned the wheel to hit the apex, but the steering angle was larger than necessary. They struggled to reach the inside curb, with the front sliding outward. Essentially, the Ferrari drivers had to adapt their driving style to the car, rounding off the corners. The excessive lack of rotation led to overheating of the front tires.
The reason is simple: as the car slides outward, tire temperatures rise due to increased friction, causing the tread temperature to spike. Both Ferrari cars started their laps with temperatures near the target range, but as the lap progressed, the front axle quickly overheated. Temperatures deviating from the optimal range resulted in an incorrect contact patch, which directly depends on tire pressure. This characteristic worsened throughout the lap, significantly limiting performance.
McLaren was nearly perfect, although they too showed a slight lack of rotation, less pronounced than Ferrari’s. The two MCL38 cars maintained high minimum speeds mid-corner, a critical factor that made a significant difference, as predicted in previews earlier in the week. Tire management was less complex for McLaren, as Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris could push harder during their laps. The historic British team lost pole position in the first sector, likely due to their tires not yet being in the optimal temperature window. They aimed to start the lap “below target” to have the tires reach optimal values by sector three. This strategy cost them pole to George Russell’s Mercedes. Observing the W15’s performance, it displayed a tendency toward oversteer. At the apex, the rear was less stable, forcing the drivers to make minor corrections and sometimes widen their lines. This required careful handling.
Ultimately, it was a matter of balance. Despite this, Mercedes showed it could generate significant downforce with its floor. George Russell delivered a masterclass in the middle sector, improving Max Verstappen’s already excellent time by half a tenth, though the Dutchman was later penalized. However, in the final part of the Qatari track, the W15 struggled, with the rear overheating and requiring racing line adjustments. George Russell, however, was flawless, a brilliant performer compared to his Mercedes teammate.
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