Max Verstappen returns to pole position five months after his last one. The world champions exceed expectations by making small adjustments to the setup after the Sprint, which prove effective in restoring balance and stability. Mercedes and George Russell look promising for the race, while McLaren falls short of the performance leap anticipated following their Sprint double victory. The Woking cars will have to watch out for Ferrari, which struggled with tire preparation in qualifying but feels optimistic about race pace.
Few would have bet on the Dutchman’s pole position, especially after a disappointing Sprint performance. Starting poorly and battling oversteer in the first two corners, Verstappen found himself behind Hamilton, Leclerc, Hulkenberg, and Gasly before overtaking the Alpine but without the pace to challenge Haas. The evening session, however, shows a vastly different form, with nearly six-tenths gained over McLaren on a single lap compared to Friday’s qualifying.
The reopening of parc fermé allowed Red Bull to adjust the setup, improving balance and resolving inconsistencies between high and low speeds. Verstappen, smiling, remarks on his regained ability to attack curbs during corner entry and mid-corner, contrasting with the understeer that plagued him early in the weekend. The real game-changer, however, is the improved stability in high-speed corners, giving Max the confidence to push the car to its limits. This shift is evident even in Sergio Perez’s performance, as he manages to reach Q3 despite often struggling more than Verstappen with an unstable car at high speeds.
Verstappen emerges victorious from a spectacular and closely contested qualifying session, edging out George Russell by just 55 thousandths of a second. Key to this result is Red Bull’s unconventional strategy of running both Q3 attempts on the same set of tires, with the final lap completed on used rubber. The softer compound offers a high peak of grip but within a narrow temperature range, especially on fresh tires. Used tires, having undergone a heat cycle, provide more consistent grip over a broader temperature range. This gives the driver a more predictable and stable feel, allowing Verstappen to extract every last fraction of performance from the car.
Verstappen’s magic lap comes as a bitter blow to George Russell. Mercedes had the potential for pole in Friday’s qualifying, but taking the sweeping final sector corners on soft tires for the first time drained the battery more than expected. This caught the energy management software off guard, cutting power. However, the front row start on Saturday confirms that the Silver Arrows are serious contenders for victory on a track with cool conditions that challenge front-end grip. Both Mercedes drivers express even greater confidence in their race pace than in their qualifying performance, ensuring Verstappen will not have an easy night ahead.
McLaren disappoints, despite being the pre-race favorite, as its drivers struggle to piece together a clean lap. The MCL38 again suffers from understeer, particularly in faster corners, forcing drivers to apply more steering angle, which in turn triggers rear instability. Lando Norris claims that almost nothing has changed in terms of setup, and indeed, he had already complained on Friday about the car’s inability to handle the sweeping corners of the third sector. The drop in starting position compared to the Sprint seems more attributable to rivals’ improvements rather than a regression by McLaren. Some of the blame could also lie with changes in wind conditions, as Oscar Piastri noted on Friday that reduced gusts made the car easier to handle.
Ferrari, on the other hand, manages to adjust its balance on soft tires, eliminating the bothersome understeer from the first day. However, these improvements aren’t enough to surpass their title rivals. Ferrari continues to struggle with imperfect tire preparation. In Q3, its drivers are the only ones to complete just one warm-up lap. Leclerc requested an additional warm-up lap before his final attempt, but there wasn’t enough time to accommodate this. The challenge is not just bringing the tires up to temperature but doing so without degrading them before the flying lap while also balancing front and rear temperatures perfectly. The final result reflects the potential of a car ill-suited to the Qatar circuit and less competitive over a single lap, though both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz express optimism for the race. The goal will be to finish ahead of McLaren.
Saturday’s Sprint saw a McLaren one-two, achieved through excellent teamwork and DRS utilization, earning the team an additional six-point advantage over Ferrari in the standings. However, it’s impossible to draw conclusions about race pace due to subsequent setup changes and because the pace of the lead group was essentially dictated by Oscar Piastri. Norris appeared capable of pulling away but managed his pace to provide DRS to his teammate. Even so, he expressed concern over the radio about his front tires losing grip. When Norris did accelerate on rare occasions, Piastri struggled to match his pace, reinforcing the impression of a vulnerable McLaren.
Ferrari benefited from using nearly new medium tires, allowing Charles Leclerc to close the gap on Hamilton, who was on tires five laps older. Meanwhile, Carlos Sainz kept up with the lead group’s pace. The Maranello team approaches Sunday’s race with just one set of hard tires available, but all signs point to a one-stop strategy. Ferrari has the advantage of being the only team to have tested the hard compound during Friday’s practice, aiming to put pressure on a McLaren team that now faces its first match point to claim a world championship 26 years in the making.
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