Why we shouldn’t get carried away about Ferrari after F1 testing, but there are genuine positives

Formula 1 winter testing should always be taken with a pinch of salt. Some teams prefer to stay hidden, while others push a little harder to make an impression — perhaps even to attract sponsors. On paper, the 2026 tests were expected to be more representative. Everything has changed and no one can truly feel safe. For that reason, the lap times from the final three days of running in Bahrain appear to carry more weight. Ferrari fans certainly hope that is the case, because what Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc showed has sparked hopes of a high-level season.

Leclerc fastest on the final day of testing

On the final day of testing — technically also the last day on track before the Australian Grand Prix on March 8 — Charles Leclerc set the fastest time, and he did so convincingly. He was almost nine tenths quicker than Lando Norris in second place and, among the leading drivers, he completed the most laps (132).

Of course, some will argue that McLaren and Mercedes perhaps had little reason to show their true pace, that they may have been hiding their performance, just as Max Verstappen could have done.

But honestly, there are many small yet significant clues that inspire confidence, above all race pace. Charles Leclerc was consistently strong over long runs, just as Lewis Hamilton — aside from a few technical issues — managed to string together an impressive sequence of laps on Thursday.

Vasseur plays it down: “So far, so good”

Leclerc had already said he was satisfied before heading back out on track, and now he has even more reason to be. Team principal Frédéric Vasseur, however, was keen to calm expectations. Speaking to Sky Sport after day three of the second Bahrain test, he said: “So far, so good, but we have to keep in mind that the objective of the week was to accumulate mileage, collect data and prepare the season with strong foundations. Our reliability is decent, performance is relative because in the end we don’t know the fuel levels of the others, we don’t know their engine modes, and we know they didn’t use some of the tyre compounds. We have the fastest time here, but it has nothing to do with what will happen in two weeks in Melbourne.”

In short, Fred Vasseur is pouring cold water on the excitement. Being favourites — or presumed favourites — is ultimately meaningless. What matters is the result on track. That said, Ferrari are giving off positive vibes, unlike in some previous seasons. The Scuderia look promising not only in terms of race pace, but also thanks to certain technical solutions, above all the rotating rear wing introduced by Hamilton, which even surprised Ollie Bearman, who is part of the Ferrari family.

What is sandbagging? The key word of the new F1 era

The great unknown is teams deliberately hiding their true potential — what is commonly referred to in the F1 paddock as sandbagging. Running with higher fuel loads is one way to do it: the car is heavier and therefore slower. Teams can also sandbag by using less competitive tyre compounds or by opting for more conservative engine modes. In this way, rival teams cannot accurately judge the real level of performance.

There are question marks over Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull — but perhaps even over Ferrari themselves, who on Thursday with Hamilton did not shine over a single flying lap. After all, only two engines were used. A positive sign comes indirectly: both Haas and Cadillac encountered no engine issues with their Ferrari power units. That suggests the power unit is solid.

In the end, the feeling is that everyone is holding something back. Yet Ferrari give the impression of being right there, ready to fight with McLaren and Red Bull — who traditionally engage in sandbagging during testing — and with Mercedes, widely described as the benchmark car. Bahrain testing does not guarantee success, but for once, Ferrari head into a new Formula 1 season with more than just hope: they have tangible signs of competitiveness.