Why Ferrari can catch Mercedes amid battle for P2 in F1 Constructors' Championship

Why Ferrari can catch Mercedes amid battle for P2 in F1 Constructors’ Championship. Ferrari can still take second place in the F1 Constructors' Championship.

The Mexican Grand Prix presented a two-sided performance for Scuderia Ferrari, with the SF-23 securing the pole position thanks to Charles Leclerc and the entire front row of the starting grid with Carlos Sainz Jr. Undoubtedly, the alchemy that enabled this achievement, mainly stemming from the perfect performance of the new Soft tires in Q3 and the car’s balance with a low fuel load, was not replicated in the race. The balance of the SF-23 with a full tank, especially under low load conditions, and thus reduced grip on the tires, does not guarantee reduced tire wear. For this reason, while adhering to the power unit usage regulations, which are the same for both qualifying and the race (different modes cannot be used), it became evident that the torque delivery had been configured to minimize wheel spin during acceleration. The less-than-ideal starts for both SF-23 cars were clear confirmation of this, as was their acceleration out of corners.

Therefore, it was challenging to compete on equal terms with Mercedes, or at least with Lewis Hamilton’s car, which immediately made better use of the medium tires’ enhanced performance. Meanwhile, George Russell, after numerous attempts to overtake Carlos Sainz, had to concede due to the higher tire wear he induced.

BALANCE
The balance and car setup will continue to be the performance differentiator between the SF-23 and the W14 in the last three races. However, the situation may become more nuanced starting with Brazil, where the race is held this weekend. The Interlagos circuit is situated at a slightly higher altitude, around 700 meters, but the air’s thinness is significantly less pronounced than in Mexico, making it less impactful on the generated downforce. On paper, the Interlagos track does not seem favorable to the Ferrari in terms of its dynamic characteristics. Still, the team can partially compensate for this with aerodynamics and more effective use of energy supplied by the electrical part of the power unit. Last year, Mercedes unexpectedly achieved a one-two finish with the W13 at this track. However, this happened in a race where Red Bull had shown less competitiveness (comparable to Singapore 2023, for reference) and with a car concept that is now mostly obsolete, so it may not be a relevant reference point.

LAS VEGAS AND ABU DHABI
Regarding Las Vegas, a new addition for all, the track characteristics along the Strip seem more suited to the Italian car compared to the Brackley-based team. The W14 has always struggled on stop-and-go tracks, except for the striking exception of Singapore, especially when compared to the features of the revived McLaren MCL60. The final stop in Abu Dhabi would maintain the same peculiarities except in the marina section, where the W14 could gain an advantage. Nevertheless, since Monza, the SF-23 has significantly reduced load transfers with a meticulously defined dynamic and aerodynamic setup in the simulator. In summary, the 22-point advantage is certainly significant and manageable for Mercedes but not yet insurmountable for Ferrari.