The championship duel between Ferrari and McLaren continues, with the teams arriving in Qatar separated by 24 points. The Prancing Horse is under pressure not to lose ground on a circuit better suited to the Woking team, which in Lusail has the opportunity to deliver the decisive blow. On a track that rewards high-speed aerodynamic load and stability through corners, the MCL38 is ready to perform at its best, but the risk of graining keeps Maranello’s hopes alive. All this while Mercedes and Red Bull remain poised to play the role of disruptors.
For months, Frederic Vasseur has not hidden the challenges Ferrari is set to face in the upcoming weekend: “On paper, Qatar is not the best track for us.” Lusail lacks the slow and short-duration corners of Las Vegas or Mexico City, which have been favorable to Ferrari. On the contrary, it features a wealth of fast bends taken at speeds between 200 and 250 km/h, particularly highlighted by the triple right-hand corner in the final sector.
The high speeds through corners shorten braking phases, with just 4.2 g of deceleration at the most severe braking point in Turn 1, according to Brembo simulations. Lateral accelerations, however, increase significantly, reaching monstrous peaks of 4.8 g, levels not seen since the Silverstone round. The predominance of fast corners does evoke the British track, though in Qatar, the average lap speed of 230 km/h is 20 km/h lower than at Silverstone. This reflects the lack of long straights, except for the main one, allowing for the adoption of a high-downforce aerodynamic setup.
Overall, the Lusail track is the polar opposite of Las Vegas, requiring strong mid-corner stability, particularly in the first and last hairpins, as well as in the three long curves of the middle sector at around 100 km/h. These characteristics favor McLaren, already competitive in 2023 and further improved in cornering performance since then. The MCL38 also boasts ample grip, making it resistant to the intense winds typical of the Qatari desert. Ferrari, on the other hand, is less competitive in these aspects, though it has improved front-end load thanks to the new front wing introduced in Singapore.
Ferrari hopes for graining
The last race demonstrated how the type of asphalt and environmental conditions can be even more decisive than the track layout alone. In Las Vegas, on a circuit seemingly tailor-made for Ferrari, cold temperatures hampered the SF-24, struggling to heat its tires and instead reviving Mercedes. In Qatar, the opposite scenario is expected.
Temperatures will not be particularly high, with evening lows below 20°C, but Lusail is primarily a high-energy circuit. The asphalt characteristics, high aerodynamic load levels, and abundance of long, fast, sequential corners are all factors that generate heat in the tires, further intensified by the high inflation pressures required to withstand the intense vertical loads. As a result, warming up the tires on a single lap will not be an issue.
For the race, both degradation and graining are expected, though different from what was experienced in Las Vegas, where it was primarily triggered by the cold. The combination of fast corners and smooth asphalt is particularly stressful for the tires, demanding maximum grip until reaching the breaking load, leading to tearing and graining. At Pirelli, the phenomenon was already evident in 2023, as noted by Mario Isola at the time: “Graining was a very significant factor across all compounds.” Despite the challenges in Las Vegas, Ferrari remains one of the best teams in managing graining. McLaren, however, still has room for improvement, as highlighted by Andrea Stella following their loss at Monza for this very reason: “I think our car tends to be very gentle on the rear tires, but when we face graining on the front, we are aggressive.”
Degradation will be another equally important wear mechanism, but its exact intensity remains uncertain, even though Pirelli is bringing the hardest compounds in the range, C1, C2, and C3. In 2023, the unexpected issue with pyramid curbs, which caused tire cuts, forced race direction to limit stint durations to 18 laps, effectively imposing a three-stop strategy that eliminated the need to manage pace. A two-stop strategy appears the most plausible for the upcoming edition, though the possibility of a one-stop strategy remains, a winning move in 2021 but with a completely different type of car. Limiting the number of stops would have a logical advantage in securing track position, given the significant impact of dirty air on the fast corners.
Strategy choices will go hand in hand with tire availability. For this reason, it’s unlikely that anyone will test race tires, most likely the hard compound, on Friday, preferring to save them for the following days. For the same reason, the most probable scenario is that teams will run the Sprint on used medium tires, conserving them as much as possible during Friday’s qualifying. However, the gamble of running new or even hard tires on Saturday to maximize points in the Sprint and playing the Grand Prix with a single stop cannot be ruled out. The impression is that strategy in Qatar will be a shot in the dark, with a range of variables undermining the confidence of those arriving as favorites, in this case, McLaren.
And the others? Mercedes comes off a decisive one-two finish in Las Vegas, a result facilitated by the low temperatures that allowed the W15 to hit its operating window, helped by the wise choice of a higher-downforce setup to heat and protect the tires. The Silver Arrows, however, could also surprise in Qatar. The smooth asphalt allows for lower ride heights without triggering bouncing, while the fast corners highlight the strengths of the car’s front end, mitigating its difficulties in sequential slow corners. “The W15 has been more comfortable on circuits rich in high-speed corners, like Silverstone and Spa,” Toto Wolff anticipates. “Certainly, we benefited from the cold nights in Las Vegas, but Qatar’s track design should be more favorable to the strengths of our car.”
Finally, there’s Max Verstappen, fresh off his fourth world title. As he himself pointed out, Red Bull has recovered following the updates in Austin, though it is still not at the level of Ferrari and McLaren. The difficulties in Las Vegas can be seen as an isolated case, while Lusail should help bring the RB20 closer to the competition. Red Bull, along with Mercedes, is ready to interpose itself between McLaren and Ferrari, potentially steering the Constructors’ Championship toward either Woking or Maranello.
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