Ferrari’s Austin undercut opportunity: Pirelli reveals potential 2.5-second gain

Ferrari could have an opportunity to gain as much as 2.5 seconds through the undercut during the 2026 United States Grand Prix, according to estimates outlined by Pirelli Motorsport chief Dario Marrafuschi. With Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton preparing for Sunday’s race at the Circuit of the Americas, the timing of their pit stops and the compounds selected could prove crucial to recovering positions.

The potential advantage is significant, but exploiting it will require more than simply stopping before a rival. Pirelli’s calculations indicate that switching to Soft tyres could offer a larger theoretical gain than fitting Hards, although the characteristics of the softer compound introduce an important complication. Ferrari must therefore balance immediate performance against tyre management, degradation and the risk of losing time in traffic.

Pirelli identifies the key undercut window for Ferrari in Austin

The most important part of the strategic picture concerns the expected timing of a one-stop race. Following qualifying for the United States Grand Prix, Dario Marrafuschi explained that the likely pit-stop window extends from approximately Lap 20 to Lap 26.

Speaking to members of the media, including F1inGenerale, the Pirelli Motorsport chief cautioned that the available information was not yet definitive. His calculations were therefore estimates based on the data gathered up to that point rather than precise predictions of how the Grand Prix would unfold.

Nevertheless, the figures offer Ferrari and its competitors a useful starting point for determining when an earlier pit stop could generate an advantage.

According to Marrafuschi, a driver stopping on Lap 20 and switching to Hard tyres could theoretically gain approximately 1.5 seconds through the undercut. Choosing Soft tyres instead could increase that advantage to around 2.5 seconds.

The difference between the two options is approximately one second, potentially enough to influence the order between closely matched competitors during the pit-stop sequence.

For Ferrari, the opportunity is particularly relevant because a successful undercut could help Charles Leclerc or Lewis Hamilton recover ground without needing to complete an overtake on the circuit.

However, the team’s decision will depend on the circumstances surrounding each driver, including tyre performance, traffic and the positions of nearby rivals.

Why Soft tyres could offer Ferrari a bigger undercut advantage

The comparison between the Soft and Hard compounds is not as straightforward as their estimated lap-time differences might suggest.

Although the Soft offers greater outright performance, it also requires more careful management immediately after a pit stop. That restriction can prevent a driver from exploiting the tyre’s full potential on the opening lap of a new stint.

Dario Marrafuschi explained that a driver switching to Hards should be able to push immediately without needing to protect the compound for the first couple of laps. That characteristic makes the Hard particularly useful when an undercut depends on producing a competitive out-lap.

The situation is different with the Soft. The Pirelli Motorsport chief indicated that drivers must be more cautious during the opening lap on the softer compound, reducing part of its theoretical advantage.

That distinction is important because the success of an undercut is determined by the time gained while a rival remains on older tyres. A faster compound does not automatically produce a better result if the driver cannot immediately use its available performance.

Marrafuschi also provided a useful comparison with qualifying. The estimated difference between the Hard and Soft compounds over a single qualifying lap is approximately 1.5 seconds.

In race conditions, however, the Soft’s undercut advantage is reduced by around one second compared with that qualifying reference because the tyre must be managed more carefully after leaving the pits.

The calculations therefore highlight two competing considerations: the Soft’s greater potential speed and the Hard’s ability to deliver usable performance immediately.

These trade-offs are especially relevant given the tyre degradation challenges previously identified by Pirelli for Austin, which could influence how aggressively teams approach their pit-stop windows.

Ferrari’s remaining tyre sets for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton

The remaining fresh tyres available to each driver will also influence the strategic choices made during the United States Grand Prix.

Ferrari’s two drivers have different tyre inventories, meaning the Scuderia does not necessarily have to adopt identical approaches for both cars.

According to the available allocation figures, Charles Leclerc has one new Soft set, one new Medium set and one new Hard set, alongside three used sets of Soft tyres.

Lewis Hamilton has two new Soft sets, two new Medium sets and one new Hard set, with another two used Soft sets available.

The remaining allocations for the leading drivers are as follows:

The differences between the available sets could create opportunities for teams to vary their strategies according to track position and the expected performance of each compound.

Mercedes and McLaren have no new Soft sets remaining in these figures, while Red Bull retains two unused Soft sets for both Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar.

Ferrari’s allocation leaves scope for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to consider different approaches, although the most effective choice will depend on how the race develops.

The balance between tyre life and performance can also be examined through the ScuderiaFans F1 tyre and stint analysis, which allows comparisons of compound usage and stint characteristics across Grand Prix weekends.

Could Ferrari use an early pit stop to recover positions?

For Ferrari, the appeal of an early stop is clear. If either driver becomes trapped behind a rival and cannot make progress on track, the undercut could provide an alternative route to gaining a position.

However, making that strategy work requires careful consideration of the tyres fitted after the stop and the conditions the driver will encounter when returning to the circuit.

A switch to Hard tyres could provide a more predictable opening to the new stint because the driver would be able to push immediately. Choosing Softs could offer a greater theoretical gain, but their need for early management could limit the advantage. The figures presented by Dario Marrafuschi show why Ferrari cannot base its strategy entirely on the compound with the greatest outright speed.

Traffic could also influence the outcome. Even a well-timed stop may fail to deliver the expected benefit if the driver rejoins behind slower cars and cannot exploit the performance of the fresh tyres.

Tyre degradation represents another important consideration. A compound that delivers a strong initial advantage may not necessarily provide the best overall result if its performance deteriorates more quickly than anticipated.

The team must therefore assess both the immediate time gain and the longer-term consequences of the tyre choice.

Ferrari’s United States GP strategy could depend on one pit-stop decision

The United States Grand Prix presents Ferrari with a strategic opportunity, but the outcome will depend on execution rather than simply choosing the fastest available tyre.

Pirelli’s estimated pit window of Laps 20–26 provides an initial framework, while the potential undercut gains of 1.5 seconds on Hards and 2.5 seconds on Softs indicate how much track position could be at stake.

Those figures remain provisional, and the balance between the compounds may change once the drivers begin experiencing race conditions over longer stints. For Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, the priority will be finding the right moment to make a move without sacrificing the performance needed for the remainder of the Grand Prix.

An earlier stop could help either Ferrari driver gain ground, but an unsuitable tyre choice or a poorly timed pit visit could eliminate that advantage. Ultimately, the key question for the Maranello team is not simply whether to pit early or wait. It is whether the selected compound can deliver the necessary performance at precisely the moment Ferrari needs it.

With the potential gains measured in seconds rather than hundredths, the first pit-stop sequence could become one of the most important phases of Ferrari’s race at the Circuit of the Americas.