The Final Battle
With the Drivers’ Championship mathematically secured by Max Verstappen at the last race in Las Vegas, the F1 circus is now focused on the fight for the Constructors’ title. With two Grands Prix remaining, three teams are still in contention: McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull. However, the reigning champions are only mathematically involved and could be forced to concede defeat before the final race in Abu Dhabi.
The situation is different for McLaren and Ferrari, who are separated by 24 points with a maximum of 103 points still available. The Lusail track will also host the final Sprint race of the season. McLaren could seal the title this weekend with a combination of results favoring Andrea Stella’s team. However, Ferrari—at least theoretically—still holds its fate in its own hands.
With two double wins in the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz would overturn the deficit separating them from Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, even if the papaya cars finished third and fourth in both races. At that point, Ferrari would only need a few points from the Qatar Sprint to clinch the title. This is what the math suggests, but on track, the situation is much more complex.
Observers widely agree that McLaren will be the favorite in Qatar due to the characteristics of the Lusail circuit. For Ferrari to maintain control of their destiny, they must head to Abu Dhabi trailing Woking by fewer than 17 points. In that scenario, the Reds would “only” need a 1-2 finish at Yas Marina to celebrate without worrying about Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri’s results. However, between theory and practice lies the desert—and a Grand Prix where the SF-24s, on paper, are starting as underdogs.
