Japanese GP race pace analysis – Ferrari pays for compromise, McLaren not as strong as expected

Japanese GP race pace analysis – Ferrari pays for compromise, McLaren not as strong as expected. Ferrari pays for the compromise in race pace at Suzuka.

The Suzuka circuit is a true test for the cars, with fast and slow corners, long straights, and tire management. In fact, the completeness of the track, similar to Barcelona, allows teams to assess the development status of their cars. Together with the rather demanding tarmac and lateral loads, it enables a clearer analysis of tire management. Let’s see how the top teams performed through the race pace analysis of the 2025 Japanese GP, focusing on Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull, and McLaren.

The performance of the four main teams painted a more complete picture of the competitive landscape. The gap between Max Verstappen and the two McLaren cars is extremely narrow, and the Dutchman’s speed made up for most of the difference between the RB21 and the MCL39. The Woking car nonetheless appears to have been scaled down in terms of its speed.

At the Suzuka circuit, the hardest compounds in the Pirelli range made their debut, with the C1 used during the second stint of this morning’s GP. Likely contributing to this diminished advantage was the forced modification to the rear wing, with McLaren accused of using a “mini-DRS.”

Ferrari pays for the compromise in race pace

The race pace analysis of the Suzuka GP shows a fairly clear performance picture. McLaren and Verstappen are currently the benchmark. Around 0.2 to 0.3 seconds behind, as seen both in Australia and China, are Mercedes and Ferrari. The latter, however, shows a significant difference between its two drivers, with Lewis Hamilton notably struggling over the 53 laps. This disadvantage was compounded by a strategic choice, with the Brit starting his GP on the C1.

A choice that did not pay off, given the near absence of degradation despite the green track due to overnight rain between Saturday and Sunday morning. The energy exerted on the tires and the low temperatures contained this factor, nullifying the strategic plan to extend the first stint.

Returning to the fight at the front, the two McLarens and Max Verstappen displayed very similar race paces, with an average difference of just 30 thousandths in standard deviation. Although it was the Dutchman who took home the winner’s trophy, it was Norris who had the best pace, albeit by only a few thousandths.