Third Grand Prix of the 2025 Formula 1 championship and for the third time, we find ourselves questioning the performance of the Ferrari SF-25 single-seater, this time following the Japanese Grand Prix weekend. A sport that no longer entertains the Tifosi, especially because, after the winter hype, we were all expecting much better performance. Instead, after a trio of Grand Prix and 24 hours of pre-season testing, we can confidently say that the SF-25 car created by the engineers and technicians in Maranello was designed poorly.
So is this the end of Ferrari’s 2025 Formula 1 World Championship hopes? Not yet, it is too early. There are still 21 races left before the end of the season, but it certainly will not be easy to get back on track a car that has several problems, ranging from height management to the age-old inconsistent behavior depending on changing variables, such as environmental conditions or the Pirelli tire compounds.
As a result, the Ferrari engineers have resorted to tests, those almost desperate trials made in order to try and pull a rabbit out of a hat. Today, Lewis Hamilton tried a different strategy with a start on the hard C1 tire. Initially, the tactic gave some hope, but with the switch to the medium tires, the entire strategy fell apart, as the nine-tenths lost by Andrea Kimi Antonelli after the pit stop turned into almost 10 seconds by the end of the operation. A delta loss accumulated over about 20 laps: an abyss.
But it is not the only gamble Ferrari has made with the British driver. Lewis Hamilton, after a disappointing qualifying session at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka Circuit on Saturday, stated that a setup was planned to emerge in the race. This attempt also failed miserably, as the race pace of the seven-time Formula 1 world champion was rather soft compared to that of his Maranello teammate. The telemetry data also confirms this.
Do you remember what Charles Leclerc said after the Bahrain pre-season testing session in February? The Monegasque driver admitted that his style was surprisingly close to that of Lewis Hamilton. A statement which confirmed a rather obvious dynamic, but one that some had dared to question. With this small controversy settled, it was expected that two drivers with similar driving styles would start developing the car in the same direction, choosing similar setups.
The Japanese Grand Prix, however, showed us that Lewis Hamilton went one way while Charles Leclerc chose another. At this stage, it seems that the Monegasque is better at reading the SF-25 car, while the Englishman is struggling with issues that had mysteriously disappeared between qualifying and the Sprint race at the Chinese Grand Prix. All it took was lifting the car – not a small matter in the Venturi era – in order to confuse the seven-time Formula 1 world champion, who no longer knows how to handle this car. At the Shanghai International circuit, Lewis Hamilton never lit up, nor did he in the race. The lap time distribution also confirms this.
It is likely that Ferrari’s ride height is creating driving issues that Lewis Hamilton can’t deal with, but Charles Leclerc manages to navigate. Perhaps we will have to wait for the first aero-mechanical corrections to allow both drivers to follow the same technical path, which today, instead, seems to be diverging. And it certainly is not a good sign, as the car appears to provide different feedback to two drivers who should, instead, be heading in the same direction.
In a race that offered very few overtaking opportunities, as was expected considering the track layout and the new track surface, where almost all position changes happened during pit stops, the Ferrari cars struggled to stay close to the cars ahead, resulting in a race literally conducted in no man’s land: Lewis Hamilton finished in seventh place, and Charles Leclerc fourth, without challenging the top three at any moment.
What made us reflect – confirming how much work still needs to be done in Maranello – was the communication confusion that emerged after the 53 laps of the race in Suzuka. Charles Leclerc mentioned adapting his style to the car, which is not a promising sign since the opposite should happen. Lewis Hamilton, like Charles Leclerc just before, called for the introduction of aerodynamic updates, something they are counting on to get out of the quicksand.
Ferrari: back to “we need to understand”
To temper the expectations regarding the first aerodynamic package, Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur stepped in, suggesting that there would be no new updates until the aerodynamic platform and its functionality are fully understood. Therefore, the updates expected for the Bahrain International Circuit have suddenly become a mystery.
Sakhir would be the most suitable track for testing updates, as each novelty would be compared with the data gathered during the winter pre-season testing session. If Ferrari does not introduce improvements, it would be proof that the Maranello engineers still don’t know where to start. This factor, in a Formula 1 championship characterized by an expiring regulatory context, would sound more than one alarm bell, as explained by F1 expert Diego Catalano for the formulacritica website.
Today, it felt like hearing that ominous “we need to understand” from the Mattia Binotto era. A legacy of a Ferrari in a state of confusion, which we thought we would not see anymore, especially after a 2024 Formula 1 in where the Maranello team had been progressing, ending with many certainties after addressing the issues with the aerodynamic package introduced at the Circuit de Catalunya in Barcelona, for which Italian aerodynamicist and former technical director Enrico Cardile paid the price, but in light of what we are seeing now, maybe he was not the main culprit behind the inability to produce a car up to expectations.
Ferrari: Is the problem correlation?
What one has to wonder is what data Ferrari had evaluated to make such optimistic comments during the winter. Much was said about the quality of the red simulator and the grandeur of the wind tunnel, which had been updated last year to bring it on par with McLaren and Aston Martin’s cutting-edge facilities.
The feeling – and this is just a feeling, not a news report – is that there is more than one correlation issue between what the computational systems say and what the track actually dictates. Otherwise, certain premature statements would not make sense. Because we don’t think that the women and men led by Frederic Vasseur are a group of clueless individuals without substance.
The Suzuka – Sakhir – Jeddah triple-header begins with more questions than answers for the Italian side. By the end of this section of the 2025 Formula 1 calendar, the Maranello team needs to get definitive answers, because the Easter race risks not being the round of resurrection but the one where championship dreams are covered by a heavy marble tombstone.
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