A historic win for Max Verstappen in Suzuka, against all pre-race predictions. In the standings, the Dutch champion now trails Lando Norris by just one point, but what’s really worrying McLaren is the steady growth of the revamped Red Bull. In Woking, it’s already time for big decisions, with Norris and Piastri making different requests for development. Ferrari limited the damage at the worst track for its ongoing ride height issues, while still trying to understand whether they can be resolved.
Successful changes
Suzuka has always been a track tough for overtaking, a trait amplified this year by pre-race resurfacing. “Suzuka has completely changed its personality. Degradation is now very low, making overtaking extremely difficult,” said Andrea Stella. The new, smoother tarmac laid on the fast corners of the first sector minimized tyre wear in what’s traditionally the most critical section, flattening performance and halving the number of pit stops. The result was a dull race frozen in position, rewarding Verstappen’s qualifying magic.
On a single lap, the Dutchman leaned on fresh tyres to mask the car’s limitations, but Red Bull’s work was still impressive. The updates to the engine cover provided a bit more efficiency, very welcome on a weekend won by just 0.012 seconds in qualifying. Even more important was the setup change between Friday and Saturday. The switch to a higher-downforce rear wing stood out, likely aimed at greater stability and/or reducing the floor’s workload, allowing more play with suspension settings.
Oscar Piastri pays for qualifying mistake
While more comfortable in the McLaren than in China, Lando Norris could do nothing against Max Verstappen in Suzuka: “It was all decided yesterday. Our pace was too similar.” The Briton never managed to break through the dirty air, trying the only possible move — an early stop — which Red Bull neatly covered. In the race, however, Piastri appeared to have a slight edge. The reason lies in the Australian’s driving style — sharper and more V-shaped compared to Norris’s rounder U-lines — making him more effective on corner exits.
Throughout the weekend, Lando Norris stood out in the flowing first sector, while Piastri made the difference in the final two sectors, which feature slower corners like Turn 9, the hairpin, and the final chicane. The old, more abrasive asphalt in the second half of the lap, which is harsher on tyres, shifted the focus to thermal degradation of the rear axle, favouring Oscar Piastri’s style. “This is a race limited by rear degradation,” Norris’s engineer observed in the early laps. However, McLaren chose not to send Piastri after Max Verstappen, deepening the Australian’s regret for his qualifying error at Turn 2, which cost him a front row start and potentially the win.
Tough decisions
The most important strategy remains the long-term one — the title fight will largely come down to development. Since Melbourne, Red Bull has continued to improve, not so much due to upgrades, but thanks to better understanding of the setup and driving demands of a heavily revised package. Listening to Verstappen, it seems there’s still room for improvement, especially in mid-corner stability: “I’m not satisfied yet, we need to work on balance through the corners. […] It’s clear we experimented a lot this weekend to find a driveable setup.” Cutting the gap to just one point over the first three weekends is beyond expectations for the Dutchman, who now awaits help from future upgrades.
The world champion’s perfection puts McLaren in check, forcing it to make key decisions for the future. Both drivers deliver similar performance in the MCL39 but with very different styles — Lando Norris being far more aggressive on corner entry, steering earlier than his teammate. “The corners where I struggle most are the ones where I don’t have the front grip I need,” Lando Norris noted. Andrea Stella, quoted by The Race, signalled the team’s intent to cater to the Briton’s needs: “In the next races we’ll try to work on getting the car to do more naturally what he expects and believes is possible.” It’s still too early for team orders, but Woking must already decide which driver to back for the drivers’ title in terms of development.
Ferrari improves, but the problem remains
Ferrari had a solid weekend in terms of execution, coming close to maximizing the car’s potential and points. Even so, the Red car still lacks pace compared to the leaders. Charles Leclerc’s final gap of 16 seconds is actually flattering, considering that in clean air the McLaren cars would have pulled away further. In interviews, Lewis Hamilton confirmed the persistence of a problem that is hindering Ferrari’s performance. “We’re running higher than we’d like,” he told Sky F1 on Saturday, elaborating on Sunday: “There’s something we’ve found on the car that has affected our performance in recent races. I really hope that once this is fixed we’ll get better results, but right now it’s costing us over a tenth per lap.”
This raises the question of whether concerns about floor wear are actually signs of bouncing or another issue. In any case, whatever the precise cause, clues suggest the problem appears at low ride heights. In that respect, Suzuka was the worst track, full of fast corners and uphill compressions that press the car into the track surface.
Still, Lewis Hamilton showed optimism about resolving the issue, mentioning “a new component” on the way — possibly an aerodynamic or suspension update, something Mercedes also did in 2024. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc sent encouraging signals, showing on track that he’s figured out how to fine-tune the SF-25 to connect better with the car. The same can’t yet be said for his Maranello teammate, still lost in unproductive setup experiments.
Mercedes has a base to build on
Low degradation and overtaking difficulty kept George Russell stuck behind Charles Leclerc. The Briton was left frustrated, especially after a double mistake in Q3. Until then, the Silver Arrow had consistently matched the McLarens, with podium potential. The W16 still proves to be a versatile car, close enough to the front to hope that upgrades can close the gap. Antonelli also impressed, finishing close to his teammate in a weekend finally free of car damage. But in a week it’s already time to go racing again in Bahrain — a completely different circuit, with the added twist of the first upgrades set to arrive.
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