If we take Lando Norris out of the equation, as he put in a stellar performance, so to speak, beating his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri by 109 thousandths, the Italian Grand Prix qualifying was one of the closest of the 2024 Formula 1 season, with many cars within a minimal gap: it is difficult to say who was slow or fast when Carlos Sainz, fifth on the grid, is just 31 thousandths away from the front row of the second McLaren. The margin narrows even further when we look at Charles Leclerc, starting fourth, but only 25 thousandths behind the Australian’s MCL38 single-seater.
If we were to analyze based on track position, a popular term in today’s Formula 1, we might say Ferrari was disappointing in front of its home crowd, which was eager to celebrate at least a front row start. But fortunately, at the temple of speed, where overtaking isn’t impossible, we can make assessments considering the gaps. The big picture is that six cars are within 186 thousandths, while in Canada, a statistically significant comparison, the top six cars were within just 228 thousandths.
One week ago at the Zandvoort circuit, Ferrari qualified sixth with Charles Leclerc, 909 thousandths behind. In this case, it’s worth changing the unit of measure because the gap was nearly a second, with Carlos Sainz even further off, not making it into Q3. In a week, the Maranello team has made a significant leap in qualifying performance, which will need to be confirmed in the race today.
Ferrari’s engineers have brought an important aerodynamic update package that has worked this time: the anti-porpoising floor has shown promising results, reducing an endemic issue that has affected the car since the Spanish Grand Prix when the SF-24, capable of generating more downforce, was introduced but also became more sensitive to bouncing.
In addition to the floor, the aerodynamics team brought a very low-drag configuration to the red car, aiming to achieve the highest top speeds among the top teams. Ferrari enjoys an advantage of 4 kilometers per hour at the Prima Variante, 6 kilometers per hour at the Roggia, and 5 kilometers per hour at the Parabolica over Lando Norris’s super McLaren. In short, the SF-24 has the potential to attempt overtakes in the race, relying on low tire wear. The graining that emerged on Friday during the long run has significantly decreased as the track improved its grip.
Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz have a car in their hands that can be very fast, but it is noticeably more nervous in the chicanes. This negative effect was likely more evident with the car in qualifying setup, while with a full fuel load, the situation should improve.
Moreover, Monza is a track that requires a one-stop strategy, as the speed difference between those running at very high speeds on the straight and those going through the pit lane at 80 kilometers per hour is considerable. To avoid a race with two pit stops, it’s easy to foresee a very tactical start, not quite in line with the logic of the temple of speed.
Once again, the start could set the tone for the race: it’s imperative to overtake Geroge Russell’s Mercedes heading into the first chicane so that Charles Leclerc can stay within DRS range of the McLaren cars and take advantage of the speed on the straights.
Fred Vasseur predicts a Ferrari in the running for the race victory in the Italian Grand Prix, while Charles Leclerc is more cautious after experiencing the congenital understeer. The SF-24 had taken a step back in recent races, slipping to the third or fourth force. In front of the home crowd, there’s a desire to reverse this trend. Objectively, McLaren seems a bit stronger, but the battle with Mercedes and Red Bull is wide open. And among Ferrari fans, there’s always hope that the Woking team will make another rookie mistake. Monza could shake up the Formula 1 championship standings and the hierarchies we’ve grown accustomed to.
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