The teams and drivers woke up this morning with a big question ahead of today’s Italian Grand Prix at the 5.793-kilometre Autodromo Nazionale Monza. Will it be possible to make just one pit stop, or will two be necessary? Answering this question has never been so difficult. The condition of the track surface combined with its temperature will make the difference in terms of strategies, with the pit walls having to adapt accordingly, deciding on the best tactic to execute only during the race.
Pirelli’s recommendations – Autodromo Nazionale di Monza – 53 laps
To properly analyze all possible combinations, we refer to the comments made last night by the Pirelli motorsport director after the qualifying session: “Temperatures will play an important role. In the race, we should have a situation very similar to the one we had in qualifying, which will not help teams and drivers manage the tires. The risk of graining will be quite present and could lead drivers to change their plans by opting for two stops. For this reason, all drivers, except Tsunoda, have saved two sets of Hard compound.”
“With its very long pit lane, on paper, the best strategy at Monza should be a one-stop. Medium (C4)-Hard (C3) with a pit stop between the 20th and 26th laps, or Hard (C3)-Medium (C4) between the 26th and 32nd laps. The double pit stop cannot be ruled out with the use of one set of Mediums and two of Hards. I believe everyone will try to finish the race with just one stop, trying to manage the tires. The two-stop strategy will be more of a plan B,” concludes Mario Isola, in Pirelli’s official columns.
The possibility of two stops opens up different scenarios
The race pace simulations carried out on Friday highlighted a tendency for graining to form on the Medium tire (C4), with a consequent increase in lap times at the end of the stint. Yesterday, during the few long runs carried out in FP3, we saw that the risk of this phenomenon occurring was still present but much reduced compared to the previous day.
This tells us that the evolution of the track could significantly reduce this risk, with drivers having the chance to go for a single stop quite smoothly. Especially those who, starting from the back of the grid, choose to begin on Hards and finish the GP on Mediums, when the track will be in the best condition in terms of rubbering in.
Those starting on Mediums will definitely have to manage the tires. Mercedes, which had good management already on Friday (referring more to Russell than to Hamilton, read here), could manage a one-stop M-H strategy. For others, it will depend on how well they can exploit the Medium compound at the start of the race. In this, Mercedes might have a significant advantage.
Like Mario Isola, we also believe that the Softs will be excluded from today’s strategies at the Monza circuit, although it is possible that those who expect further degradation may choose to go for S-H-H or even better, H-H-S. However, these will be rare cases.
The predominant tactics will be M-H and M-H-H with all their combinations. Probably, the desire to go for a one-stop strategy will prevail over the choice to maximize tire potential. If we were a team in a borderline situation, having to decide whether to go for one or two stops, it might be better to start with a clear plan from the grid, so as to manage less and get the most out of the tires. Looking, for example, at Ferrari, it wouldn’t be wrong to try this approach with at least one of their two drivers.
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