The one-two finish in the qualifying session for the Sprint confirms McLaren’s superiority on more technical tracks, at least over a single lap. The values in play regarding race pace remain unknown, ahead of a Sprint race which takes place today at the 4.309-kilometre Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Brazil, where rumors suggest that tire degradation will be so high as to push for the use of hard tires. The third and fifth positions of the two Ferrari drivers therefore become a valuable result for the Maranello team, which, despite recent progress, has not yet fully addressed a chronic weakness of the Prancing Horse.
Barcelona, Budapest, Zandvoort, and now Interlagos. On tracks characterized by slow and especially long hairpins, McLaren confirms itself as the queen of the hairpins, namely the best car on the grid. In the medium-to-high downforce setup, the MCL38 single-seater demonstrates the highest levels of efficiency, boasting excellent stability in the mid-corner phase, much envied by the competition. After the missteps in the United States Grand Prix at the Austin circuit and in Mexico City, the Woking team arrives in Brazil with a competitive setup from the very first laps of the weekend.
The many uncertainties of the São Paulo track are not enough to destabilize the team, starting with the complete resurfacing of the circuit. As predicted, the reduced roughness of the track surface lowers the level of mechanical grip, which is related to the tire penetrating the asphalt grains, while increasing adhesive grip associated with chemical bonds to the tire surface. Due to a very dark color that heats the track surface quickly, teams and drivers soon discover that the rear axle is the limiting factor, making it very difficult to manage traction phases.
However, what troubles almost everyone are the numerous bumps on the track, with Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur not hesitating to call the circuit the bumpiest of the entire 2024 Formula 1 season. This is no small variable, forcing teams to raise the cars and soften the suspensions. None of this seems to trouble the Woking team, further confirming that even the aerodynamic upgrade package brought between Austin and Mexico City has not compromised the balance and drivability of the car. For McLaren, the Sao Paulo weekend begins with the best conditions.
As expected, Ferrari on the defensive this weekend. “Where we struggled the most is in the slow, long corners. We are working to have a better car in those corners, and I think we have seen good steps forward in recent races.” These words from Charles Leclerc are not from Brazil, but date back to his comments last June about the recently completed Spanish Grand Prix. In São Paulo, Ferrari suffers from what has been a weakness of the Prancing Horse since the beginning of the year, inherited from previous projects. The SF-24 lacks stability in long cornering phases, an aspect that becomes particularly penalizing in Brazil in curves like 8, 9, and 10.
Yet, even in this area, the Prancing Horse’s progress is noticeable. At the Zandvoort circuit and in Budapest, Ferrari was trailing by 0.9 and 0.45 seconds in qualifying behind McLaren, a gap that on Friday at São Paulo dropped to just 0.25 seconds, only partly justified by the shorter track. Under these conditions, Scuderia Ferrari limits the damage, waiting to see if the updates promised for Qatar will also address this weakness.
The best news for Ferrari is the satisfaction of both drivers with the car’s balance. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz are now eager to see if the SF-24 will confirm the trend from recent races, hoping for better competitiveness in the race than in qualifying. It is impossible to draw conclusions about race pace from the only free practice session which took place yesterday at Interlagos, given the many differences in the teams’ work programs. The Sprint, therefore, remains a big question mark. Some teams might even sacrifice the short race, running it on a softer compound and saving the harder tires for Sunday, although rain could affect the main race.
The news of the weekend is the replacement of the sixth internal combustion unit of the season on Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, resulting in a five-place grid penalty for Sunday’s Brazilian Grand Prix. It’s striking that over the past three years, Honda’s power units were among the most reliable, yet they now seem to be the most fragile. This observation fuels doubts about the extreme packaging and unique bodywork designed by Red Bull for the 2024 Formula 1 car, where performance gains may have come at the cost of reliability.
The penalty will be served in Sunday’s race, allowing the world champion to benefit from his second-row start in Saturday’s Sprint qualifying. However, the fourth place should not deceive anyone regarding the RB20’s potential, as Max Verstappen himself acknowledged. In qualifying, the grip from fresh tires masks the car’s limitations, which all resurface in the race, impacting tire performance. The Red Bull remains too unpredictable for Sergio Perez, who was eliminated in Q2 without apparent benefit from the chassis replacement.
Mercedes achieved only sixth with George Russell, who finally has the updated Austin floor. The W15 remains far from competing for top positions, with Lewis Hamilton also missing the top 10. In Brazil, the Silver Arrows suffer mainly from the track surface irregularities, an issue that already troubled the team on Austin’s bumpy circuit. Ahead of the Brazilian weekend, Andrew Shovlin noted that Mercedes’s objective is to use the last races to experiment in preparation for the 2025 Formula 1 campaign.
Aston Martin fares worse, with both Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso eliminated in Q1. The Silverstone team is searching for answers, even resorting to using a floor dating back to last May. It seems like ages ago when the British team was fighting directly with Ferrari and McLaren, now with one at the back of the grid and the other two contending for the constructors’ championship.
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