Interlagos is often synonymous with unpredictability, particularly because of the uncertainty surrounding the Brazilian weather, with rain possibly playing a role again this weekend according to recent forecasts. However, in terms of performance, the São Paulo circuit has thus far met the pre-race expectations, with McLaren establishing itself as the favorite by securing the entire front row in sprint qualifying.
Although Andrea Stella had suggested that Interlagos might be an unknown variable in this final part of the season, identifying other tracks as potentially better suited to highlight the MCL38’s strengths, Ferrari anticipated that certain aspects of Interlagos would pose greater challenges for the SF-24 than the last two races.
At Austin and Mexico City, as well as at Singapore and Baku, other circuits where the Maranello car performed well, there aren’t as many long corners that expose the limitations of the front end, which are more evident at São Paulo. However, this isn’t the only reason McLaren triumphed in Friday’s short qualifying session; as in other rounds this season, McLaren’s strong overall balance once again emerged as a key advantage for the MCL38.
Balanced McLaren, Ferrari’s weaknesses resurface
For instance, comparing Oscar Piastri’s pole lap with Charles Leclerc’s, who will start third tomorrow, the first noticeable factor is the Woking car’s ability to carry high speeds into the corner while remaining competitive through the mid-corner.
Turn 8 braking is crucial for setting a fast lap, as drivers come from the high-speed Turn 7 sequence and try to straighten the car as quickly as possible before preparing for the next braking zone. However, much of the deceleration phase happens in what is called a “combined” manner, where the driver is on the brake pedal while the car is still rotating, which particularly stresses the front end. McLaren’s progress in this area over the past year is evident.
While weather remains the primary unknown this weekend, certain performance elements mirror trends observed throughout the season, like Ferrari’s general lack of competitiveness in very fast corners. This issue resurfaced at Interlagos, as seen in Turns 6 and 7. An interesting point is the difference in approach compared to McLaren drivers: Charles Leclerc can anticipate throttle reapplication without fully lifting off, gaining a 7 km/h top speed advantage in Turn 6.
On the other hand, Charles Leclerc cannot fully open the throttle progressively, unlike the McLarens, which, though slower to reapply the throttle, were more linear, gaining time in Turn 7 and on the short stretch leading into Turn 8 braking.
The first chicane also shows a McLaren advantage. During practice, Ferrari attempted to tweak its approach with its drivers, especially in how they braked into Turn 1, which affected the setup for Turn 2. Here, the MCL38 proved very effective, not only by achieving higher speeds on entry and through the corner but also by providing both drivers with strong acceleration toward Turn 4, reaching a peak 3 km/h higher.
Looking at Turn 4 reveals another topic for analysis: missed opportunities. Although Oscar Piastri clinched pole by delivering in the decisive moment, Norris lost out due to mistakes in the final moments, squandering potential that could have placed him ahead of his teammate. While the Australian’s pace was strong, Norris’s advantage in certain track sections, such as Turn 4 where he was able to brake late and carry high mid-corner speed, was tangible, but missing his second attempt weighed on his ambitions.
After qualifying, Charles Leclerc admitted that, while he won’t concede defeat, McLaren remains the clear favorite for the weekend thanks to its balanced aerodynamics, including a new medium-load wing, and mechanical setup that absorbs track irregularities well. Meanwhile, after strong results in Austin and Mexico, Ferrari has returned to facing familiar weaknesses, though minor improvements are evident. High-speed and long corners continue to challenge the SF-24 over a single lap.
Another key issue is tires, particularly with the sprint in mind. Temperatures varied significantly on Friday, with track temperatures dropping from over 50°C during FP1 to just over 30°C by qualifying as clouds rolled in. With such large fluctuations, it becomes difficult for teams to pinpoint the ideal window, a point Carlos Sainz also mentioned after qualifying. Ferrari believes it has a car more focused on tire management than pure performance. In FP1, they tested stints that appeared more suited to the sprint than Sunday’s race, but their pace was still competitive.
Red Bull: Struggling with bumps
Temperature, weather, and new asphalt all play a role. Interlagos was resurfaced this year, but paradoxically, the new surface is even bumpier than before. The Brazilian track has always been challenging in this respect, but the work done for this season seems to have worsened the problem. This caught teams off guard, forcing adjustments to setups, such as raising the ride height in the case of Mercedes and Red Bull.
The Brackley team has shown in the last two GPs that they are aiming for the lowest possible ride height, to the extent that drivers frequently complained during practice about the car scraping the ground. For Red Bull, such issues don’t suit the characteristics of the RB20.
Red Bull’s strengths and weaknesses are those seen throughout the season: excellent performance in faster corners, especially in Turns 6 and 7, where Max Verstappen carries a 10 km/h advantage, showcasing the effectiveness of the RB20’s aerodynamics in those sections.
However, when it comes to working the front end and pushing the front tires, Red Bull’s recurring balance issues surface again. Beyond peak speeds, Max Verstappen cannot push into Turns 8 and 9 due to understeer, nor in Turn 4, where Lando Norris’s margin over him is even greater than Oscar Piastri’s.
These factors counteract the advantage in fast corners, compounded by the RB20’s tendency to suffer from bumps, leading to a bouncy ride that reduces confidence. Red Bull appears to have chosen a higher-downforce setup than its rivals, likely aiming to manage tire wear for the race or prepare for potential rain in Interlagos. Notably, the Milton Keynes team was among the most active in FP1, running high fuel loads in a long stint, clearly preparing more for the race than the sprint.
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