Heading to Miami: the key sector where Ferrari SF-25 must limit losses to McLaren MCL39. Ferrari faces a tough challenge in Miami as the SF-25 must minimize losses to McLaren in a crucial low-speed sector.

F1 returns to action in Miami, the third street circuit of the year. The American track sits halfway between the previous two venues, combining Jeddah’s fast corners with Bahrain’s hairpins. McLaren and Oscar Piastri have an opportunity to extend their momentum, but the race won’t be without its pitfalls. Florida is expected to bring the hottest temperatures so far this season, combined with a more aggressive tyre selection from Pirelli and the return of the Sprint format.

The Track
The Hard Rock Stadium circuit is split into two sections with contrasting characteristics, requiring teams to find a setup compromise. The lap opens with a series of high-speed corners that reward downforce and stability, though nothing quite like Jeddah’s flowing sequences. This sequence ends with a long left-hander leading into the second sector, a corner that exposes mid-corner balance and any stability weaknesses.

But the most important part is the second sector: a twisty sequence of slow corners that rewards traction. This section demands a softer suspension setup to maximize mechanical grip, which contrasts with the fast corners in the first sector where teams prefer a stiffer setup to keep the ride height stable and extract the most from the floor. It’s common to see teams take different approaches, prioritizing one sector over the other, but it’s often the slower sections that determine the winner.

That plays into McLaren’s hands, as they can once again rely on their strongest asset: rear tyre management, the result of a well-balanced car with strong traction. Miami also suits Oscar Piastri’s driving style—sharp out of corners—and he already thrived in Bahrain with a setup that highlighted this trait. Ferrari, on the other hand, is less reassured, as they’re typically less competitive in slow sections and more comfortable in fast corners—which are less prominent in Florida compared to Jeddah.

Drag Battle
The tight middle sector brings down average lap speeds to just 225 km/h in qualifying—the second-lowest of the year after Bahrain. Despite this, Miami is one of the most punishing circuits in terms of aerodynamic drag, thanks to its long straights, demanding setups similar to those in Jeddah. That’s less favorable for McLaren, who have recently lagged in straight-line speed, and this time they’ll have fewer fast corners to exploit their extra downforce.

The alternation between long straights and slow corners leads to heavy braking zones. Brembo rates the track 3 out of 5 in terms of brake severity, with the hardest braking point before Turn 17—slowing from 320 km/h to under 80 km/h—being especially prone to lockups and mistakes. These braking zones also offer overtaking opportunities, especially on a track with significant tyre degradation, which may reduce qualifying’s importance in favor of race pace.

Watch the Degradation
Miami is expected to deliver the hottest conditions of the season. In Jeddah, track temperatures stayed below 40°C during qualifying and the race, but that threshold is likely to be exceeded in Miami, where last year saw peaks over 50°C. Managing tyre overheating will be critical—even over a single qualifying lap. In 2024, drivers constantly fought with car sliding, with handling varying from corner to corner depending on tyre temperature swings. The situation won’t be any easier this year, especially with Pirelli bringing the C3, C4, and C5 compounds—the same as Jeddah and one step softer than last year’s Miami GP.

This sets up a race with high thermal degradation, a scenario that could benefit Ferrari’s strong tyre management over race distance. Even more so for McLaren, whose rear tyre preservation is a major strength—provided they avoid graining. Already seen in 2024’s edition, graining could resurface this year, even if the compounds are more robust to this wear pattern, they’re also softer.

The Sprint Variable
The Sprint format also returns in Florida, impacting team preparation. The priority will be to make the most of the only free practice session to gather data on floor wear under full fuel loads—so as not to repeat Ferrari’s disqualification in China. Collecting meaningful long-run data will be harder, though, due to the track’s evolution over three days. Still, the Sprint can offer opportunities—just like it did for Lewis Hamilton in Shanghai—if teams interpret the soft tyre better than their rivals in a Friday qualifying session where no one will test it before Q3. McLaren’s duo remains the favorite, aiming to repeat success on the very track that saw the Woking team’s comeback 12 months ago.