With Imola, the long European season officially begins, as well as a triple-header of races that, along with Monaco and Barcelona, will reveal much about the 2025 Formula 1 championship prospects. Qualifying will be the highlight of the weekend in Italy, offering Max Verstappen and the Mercedes duo an unmissable chance to trouble a McLaren that would otherwise be unreachable in race pace. However, the world champions could capitalize on their excellent tire management in qualifying, taking advantage of the debut of the C6 compound, whose understanding will be Ferrari’s main mission in the first home Grand Prix.
Saturday is crucial
McLaren comes off a dominant double victory in Miami, although the team had to concede both pole positions on offer, confirming their struggles in qualifying. Despite being the favorites, the world champions will have to work hard to stay ahead at Imola. The Santerno track is particularly difficult for overtakes, with only one DRS activation zone, a narrow racing line, and a relatively short straight. The Italian weekend will therefore largely be decided on Saturday, highlighting McLaren’s issues with single-lap pace.
Since the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season, Lando Norris has repeatedly stated that the MCL39 is a difficult car to push to the limit, a characteristic stemming from poor grip perception. Andrea Stella explained that the problem comes from a front end that gives drivers weak feedback, forcing them to rely on feel and drive blindly. This is not ideal, especially at Imola, an old-school, narrow circuit with gravel right beyond the curb, where having a good feel for the car is everything.
This opens up an opportunity for rivals to try to upset McLaren’s dominance and dream of a big result. The most credible challenger is Max Verstappen, with three pole positions this season, including one in Miami, and the prospect of defending a potential pole position this time. However, Mercedes, the most versatile and consistent car on the grid, should not be ignored. George Russell is one of the best specialists in qualifying, paired with an Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who is steadily improving. In front of his home crowd, the Italian driver will have the advantage of racing on a familiar track, having raced in Formula 2 and also tested with Mercedes’ W14 in 2022.
The kingdom of curbs
McLaren faces another uncertainty ahead of what will be a home Grand Prix for Team Principal Andrea Stella. The MCL39 has been a reference car in almost all areas of performance, but it still needs to prove itself on curbs, which are particularly high and plentiful at Imola. A key challenge is the Variante Gresini, formerly Variante Alta, not to mention the Tamburello chicane, the Villeneuve, and other points on the track. There is great curiosity to see how the Woking car performs with its extreme suspension setup, heavily compromised in favor of aerodynamics. Imola will test its ability to handle these bumps, offering a preview of what to expect one week later in Monaco.
The current Constructors’ Championship leaders remain the favorites for the overall win. McLaren can rely on the tire selection brought by Pirelli, which is softer compared to the 2024 edition. The new C6 tire makes its debut, the softest compound ever, which is prone to more degradation during the race, in hopes of stirring up more action on track. The challenge will be managing its overheating even in qualifying, with the MCL39 known for its ability to manage rear tires in qualifying until the last sector, aiming to come out of the double corner at Rivazza with momentum. Lando Norris, meanwhile, hopes to stop Oscar Piastri’s winning streak and prevent him from pulling ahead in the standings. The Englishman has a good affinity with the Santerno track, evidenced by his second-place finish in 2024 and his podiums in 2021 and 2022.
Ferrari studies the new tire
The home crowd will try to bring all their warmth to Ferrari, hoping for a reaction of pride from the Italian side. Miami was Ferrari’s toughest weekend, but in Formula 1, it is not uncommon for disastrous races to precede a rebound, putting the team in a position to address the issues that have surfaced. Unfortunately, the importance of qualifying does not favor the SF-25, a car that excels on race day rather than in single-lap pace. One of the reasons is the difficulty in extracting peak grip from the new tire, which led to Leclerc and Hamilton qualifying on used tires in Miami. Ferrari’s mission will therefore be to understand the new C6 compound, which was barely used in the Bahrain tests and has an even narrower operating window.
Ferrari finds motivation in the belief that the Italian track will be less hostile than the previous one. “Imola will probably suit us better than Miami, because we struggle a lot with low-speed corners,” said Fred Vasseur in Florida. There are plenty of slow corners, such as Tosa and the double at Rivazza, but they are far from the tight second sector of Miami. Despite not having long straights, Imola’s average lap speed is just slightly higher than in Florida, 230 km/h versus 226 km/h, proving that it’s a track with less speed loss. At Santerno, the car never drops below 100 km/h, while the fastest point at the apex is 230 km/h at Piratella. Moreover, since most of the corners are short, with the exception of Tosa, which requires good stability, it will be easier for Ferrari to find a balance.
Watch out for updates
In Emilia-Romagna, the season’s development truly takes off. Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes have already confirmed updates, while McLaren’s plans remain to be seen. Haas and Racing Bulls will try to reclaim the head of the midfield, currently occupied by the surprisingly strong Williams in Miami, and it will be interesting to see if the British team can stay close to the front runners at Imola. But the eyes will also be on the sky, as spring weather in Santerno often brings surprises, shaking up the expected outcomes.
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