Ferrari’s ground effect journey and the 2025 nightmare
The ground effect era for Scuderia Ferrari officially began with two impressive victories in the first three races of the season and an F1-75 that launched extremely strongly off the starting grid. This remarkable early performance surge immediately placed a significant challenge on the Italian team, which was not fully prepared to consistently fight at the very front of the grid in the same way that Red Bull had done in 2022, and was further weakened by reliability concerns and technical difficulties. Over the following three seasons, even as Ferrari’s trackside operations and strategic executions gradually improved, the car’s underlying lack of competitiveness consistently prevented the Italian squad from achieving its championship ambitions. The ultimate outcome is now well known among Formula 1 fans and analysts: Ferrari did not manage to maintain its upward trajectory, while Red Bull Racing and McLaren continued to dominate the sport over the past four consecutive seasons.
Now, as the team looks ahead to the dawn of a new technical era in 2026, Maranello is filled with hope and ambition, aiming to fight for a championship title once again and fulfill the promise made by John Elkann in 2022: “I am confident that by 2026 Ferrari will win a Constructors’ Championship and a Drivers’ Championship with Charles Leclerc in pole position.” The one certainty heading into 2026 is the presence of Charles Leclerc, who has developed enormously over the past four years and has clearly established himself as one of the two very best drivers currently on the Formula 1 grid, consistently demonstrating exceptional skill, maturity, and racecraft.
Ferrari’s 2022 flash start and the TD039 impact
The sacrifices made by Ferrari in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, particularly when compared with the progress of Mercedes and Red Bull, allowed the team to arrive at the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2022 with a significantly more prepared car and without the substantial weight issues that had affected the Red Bull RB18. During the early races in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Australia, Ferrari consistently held a qualifying and race pace advantage over Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez, slightly exceeding a tenth of a second. This advantage allowed Charles Leclerc to secure two race victories and narrowly miss out on another win in Jeddah, demonstrating the car’s early potential. However, the limited size of this initial advantage ultimately proved to be a long-term problem. When Red Bull introduced their upgrades at the Imola Grand Prix, the weight deficit between the RB18 and Ferrari’s F1-75 was significantly reduced, bringing the Milton Keynes car to a level of competitiveness comparable to Ferrari. In response, Maranello pushed the Ferrari Power Unit harder than at the start of the season in order to maintain pace with Verstappen, whose car had been further lightened from Barcelona onward. Unfortunately, a series of reliability issues prevented Charles Leclerc from fully contesting potential victories in Spain, Azerbaijan, and Canada. The introduction of the TD039 technical directive ultimately undermined the original concept carefully engineered by the team under the supervision of Mattia Binotto, severely limiting the car’s potential.
The performance gap between the spring-summer F1-75 and the autumn version of the car was particularly significant, with losses ranging between one and two tenths of a second. This issue became even more pronounced when a wider operating window was required. In wet conditions, the weakened front of the car caused major tire graining due to excessive sliding, a problem that was clearly visible even in races where the car became particularly tire-hungry, losing roughly half a second per lap to Red Bull compared with the performance observed during the first thirteen races of the season. The change in the ride height window between the first and second halves of the season was simply too large for Ferrari to manage effectively, causing additional complications. Nevertheless, in the second half of the year, fewer reliability problems and more consistent strategic execution slightly limited points losses: from an average of 25.7 points per weekend between Bahrain and Budapest, the average dropped to 24.4 points per weekend between Spa-Francorchamps and Abu Dhabi.
Regulatory delays and 2023 struggles
Beyond the mid-2022 technical directive, Ferrari was further frustrated by delays in regulatory clarifications for 2023, which caused tensions between Maranello and the FIA and resulted in multiple design challenges during the creation of the SF-23. The second year of the ground effect regulations was arguably the most challenging for the Italian team, with race deficits frequently exceeding half a second compared to the dominant Red Bull team led by Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez. Many of the issues that appeared at the end of 2022 persisted and even worsened in 2023. Porpoising returned as a recurring problem, cornering difficulties emerged in areas that had previously been strengths of the early F1-75, tire management under full fuel load remained a significant challenge, and the typical drop-off in performance from Saturday qualifying to Sunday race averaged four tenths of a second between August 2022 and December 2023. Early 2023 proclamations of competitiveness and internal team certainty clashed with the reality of poor correlation between simulation data and on-track performance—a challenge all teams faced, and Ferrari was no exception.
Logistical gains in 2024 and 2025 disappointment
Significant logistical improvements implemented in 2024 allowed Ferrari to be in contention for the Constructors’ Championship for the majority of the season. However, 2025 turned out to be a year of maximum disappointment for the team, disappointing fans and analysts alike. The challenges faced during 2023 prompted the design of a car that was gentler on its tires, a factor that—despite relatively small gaps to Red Bull, McLaren, and Mercedes—resulted in performance compromises that penalized the SF-24 on numerous occasions. Changes to the regulations in the previous year worsened the handling of dirty air, making it increasingly difficult for the car to follow leading competitors effectively during races. At the start of the season, two wins in the first eight races and minimal deficits to Red Bull Racing and McLaren suggested promise and progress. Yet during the summer, the introduction of Barcelona upgrades presented new challenges, introducing a level of aerodynamic load that the car’s mechanical systems could not sustain, resulting in severe porpoising issues in high-speed corners.
Subsequent changes to the rear anti-roll bars and the Monza floor eliminated the three-tenth deficit that had characterized Ferrari’s difficult summer, but it was the introduction of a more flexible front wing that finally allowed the SF-24 to be at least on par with the McLaren MCL38 in the final six races of the season. Ferrari’s technical competitiveness, for approximately two-thirds of the season, was supported by excellent operations on track, which significantly limited points losses caused by team errors during races. After a strong 2023 in this regard, the team continued to progress in 2024, enabling them to challenge McLaren for the Constructors’ Championship all the way until the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
The final year under the 2025 regulations encompassed all of the previous difficulties experienced over the past three seasons. The average points per weekend dropped by more than ten points compared to 2024 and were even two points lower than in 2023. The limited competitiveness of the car, combined with poor correlation between simulation data and on-track performance, hindered Ferrari’s ability to maximize the car’s potential during race weekends due to an extremely narrow operating window. Excessively high tire pressures led to crises for the SF-25, with the car’s competitiveness fluctuating radically from circuit to circuit depending on the specific values prescribed by Pirelli. The core issues remained the team’s inability to synchronize the mechanical and aerodynamic systems of the car effectively.
As was the case in 2023, these intrinsic problems were simply too substantial to resolve in-season, even with the introduction of the updated rear suspension in July. Chronic understeer, present since August 2022, continued to hamper performance. Additionally, the ban on flexible front wings further compounded Ferrari’s difficulties: the team introduced a more conservative front wing in an effort to preempt the losses experienced by competitors in June, which complicated the start of the season. The careful balance achieved in late 2024, which had led to victories in Austin and Mexico City for Charles Leclerc and the team, unfortunately did not transfer effectively to the SF-25 in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026
Looking ahead to the 2026 Formula 1 season, Ferrari approaches the new year with one clear certainty: the continued presence of Charles Leclerc as their lead driver. After another outstanding and highly consistent season in 2025, Leclerc’s performance is beyond question, but this alone will not be sufficient for Ferrari to achieve its championship ambitions. Leclerc himself has acknowledged that the opening races of the 2026 season will be absolutely crucial in determining his future with the team, and any lack of competitiveness could potentially bring an end to his decade-long association with Maranello. The upcoming year will also determine the future of seven-time Formula 1 world champion Lewis Hamilton, as well as Ferrari team principal Frédéric Vasseur, both of whom will face high expectations.
Lewis Hamilton will have the opportunity to demonstrate his immense value and experience with a generation of cars that is designed to suit his unique driving style, including the upcoming Ferrari SF-26, which will also incorporate his input and influence. As revealed by Italian motorsport media in November, the new Ferrari SF-26 will adopt a push rod suspension geometry at both the front and rear, under the guidance of technical director Loic Serra. To be fully competitive in the 2026 season, Ferrari must address the mechanical deficiencies that have hindered performance in previous years, ensuring that the SF-26 is immediately competitive from its first appearance on track at Montmeló, which is scheduled in less than a month from now.
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