The Japanese Grand Prix raised a question: could the 2025 championship be decided by qualifying results? The fact that there were no overtakes among the leaders in Suzuka, and that dirty air affected the duels, brought this consideration back into focus in what is the final year of a regulatory cycle that promised more on-track excitement.
This view was shared by Frederic Vasseur, who, after the Japanese leg, said that this season’s titles could indeed be decided on Saturdays in qualifying—not just because it guarantees a good starting position but also because the smaller the gaps between cars, the harder it is to overtake a rival.
“Qualifying is always crucial. The closer you are, the smaller the gap between the cars, and this is even truer when you’re in the group of cars. You’re not just fighting the driver ahead of you. Yes, this championship will likely be decided by qualifying,” said the Ferrari Team Principal after the Suzuka race.
But will it really be like that? Realistically, there’s no clear answer, but in many instances, qualifying results have had a significant impact on the race outcomes. Suzuka, with a single DRS zone, low tire degradation from the new asphalt, and a long sequence of high-speed corners, represented the extreme example of this, as often is the case in Monaco.
In Monte Carlo, the narrow track makes overtakes nearly impossible, and when you add the fact that current cars are significantly larger, it creates the perfect storm that makes strategy the only real tool to influence what seems like a pre-determined fate after Saturday’s qualifying. In Japan, other elements played a role, but common themes were also seen across other races.
Each track has its own “performance delta” required to overtake an opponent. At Suzuka, it’s estimated at seven to eight tenths, according to Andrea Stella. That value finds its reflection in reality, as the many high-speed corners make it extremely difficult to closely follow another car, due to both loss of downforce and the risk of overheating the tires.
The current generation of F1 cars was designed to make overtaking opportunities easier, thanks to a reduction in the turbulence created by the cars and a lesser susceptibility to downforce loss when following closely behind another car.
Of course, though, the cars evolve over time, and the fact that the FIA has allowed teams to work freely in key areas, such as on the front wings and external parts of the floor, has increased the sensitivity of the cars to turbulence. When you add that each car now generates more downforce than a few seasons ago, it makes sense that staying in the slipstream has become much more difficult compared to three years ago.
“We continue to add aerodynamic load, which means the losses are even greater,” explained McLaren’s Team Principal Andrea Stella. “Dirty air is a problem, as we saw in China. If you saw [Lewis] Hamilton when he was leading the sprint, he could do practically anything he wanted, even though his tire had some graining.”
But there’s another element that realistically holds even more weight in this respect, and that’s tire degradation. In the past, the seven or eight tenths Andrea Stella referred to for overtaking an opponent at Suzuka was mainly due to tire degradation, caused by a very aggressive first sector of the track, where the tires had to endure high loads in the fast corners.
The fact that that section has been resurfaced has, however, considerably reduced the tire consumption, meaning a race that last year was played out with two pit stops has turned into a race with a single stop this season. Additionally, the harder tire compound could have continued much longer without showing significant signs of wear. This allowed drivers to push freely without triggering the only variable that could have changed the course of the Grand Prix.
Looking at the first three races, it was tire degradation that enabled overtakes. In Australia, the first part of the race was relatively straightforward, with the only maneuvers coming when some drivers tried to push while others were trying to manage the intermediates to avoid overheating them on a track that was drying in some areas.
China followed the same pattern, with overtakes happening either early in the stint, when some drivers opted for a slower introduction to save the tires, or at the end when degradation signs were visible. This is the key element: tire consumption. There will be races, such as the next one in Bahrain, where the long straights and high tire degradation will offer drivers more chances to duel, especially towards the end of the stint or for an undercut.
So, will the championship be decided by qualifying? Based on what we’ve seen so far, official qualifying has often placed the cars in “order” based on their overall performance, except for Suzuka, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see a complete reversal in the race. But when the gaps are close, such as between teammates or the group of pursuers, qualifying begins to play a decisive role.
This was also evident between the two McLaren drivers in China, where the papaya-clad teammates marked each other throughout the race without being able to attack: not because of a lack of pace, but because once in the dirty air, there was not enough of a rhythm difference to attempt an overtake. There will be tracks in the future that will favor duels and be less extreme than Suzuka, but indeed, qualifying will continue to play a key role.
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