Qualifying at Monza ended in a disappointing result for Ferrari: Charles Leclerc will start from the second row, behind Max Verstappen and the McLarens, who on Friday demonstrated superior pace, while Lewis Hamilton, serving a grid penalty, will start from tenth after finishing fifth in qualifying ahead of the Mercedes duo. The comparison with last year keeps hopes alive for a sporting miracle tomorrow, but it feels like Ferrari missed the opportunity to start at the front, making it difficult to compete for the podium, especially considering George Russell and Antonio Giovinazzi are behind with less aggressive setups. The second sector proved particularly challenging for the extremely low-downforce SF-25, as expected, and neither driver improved in their final run after two strong laps in the first part of Q3. Could something more have been achieved?
Ferrari: data confirms weaknesses in known areas, ultra-low downforce gamble fails
Among the drivers who finished in the top five, only the two Ferrari drivers failed to improve their times in the second Q3 attempt. This trend, observed over the past year and a half, was hoped to be mitigated in Maranello through updates introduced earlier this summer, but once again it proved decisive. The SF-25’s narrow operating window makes it very difficult to achieve perfect tyre performance in a single lap, which both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton managed to come close to on their first runs, with Leclerc making no mistakes and Hamilton very few. Both laps were near the car’s ideal performance.
In comparison with Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, the time loss is particularly evident for Charles Leclerc in the Roggia and Ascari sections, where from the final entry phase to the first part of the exit the SF-25 is slower than the two competing cars. As highlighted yesterday, Ferrari’s straight-line speed advantage has decreased, particularly versus Red Bull, with Verstappen losing less than a tenth to Leclerc above 250 km/h. This difference, partially caused by adjustments in FP3 to the RB21’s rear wing trim, proved decisive.
The gap between the two Ferrari drivers is almost negligible at the first chicane and the Roggia, where Leclerc had been struggling until FP3. However, a significant deficit remains through the two Lesmo corners and Ascari, while it is smaller at the Parabolica. Lewis Hamilton made a minor mistake exiting Lesmo 1, but it did not affect his final grid position. The main topic of the day, discussed by Frédéric Vasseur and the Ferrari drivers, was the slipstream—or more precisely, the lack of it. Similar situations occurred in 2013 with Fernando Alonso, and in 2018 and 2019 with Sebastian Vettel. At Monza, managing slipstream opportunities is always a major talking point.
Analysis of lap start times clearly shows that the two Ferrari drivers were, among the top teams, the ones who benefited most from slipstreaming, with a gap of 4–5 seconds behind the car ahead, compared to 6–7 seconds or more for the drivers of McLaren, Red Bull, and Mercedes. “We lacked performance,” said Charles Leclerc, identifying the main issue once again. Even on a track ideally suited to the SF-25’s characteristics, Red Bull and McLaren were clearly superior. A slipstream strategy would unlikely have provided enough advantage to overturn the result, unless Hamilton had fully sacrificed his first run to provide a tow for Leclerc along both the first and second straights, assuming the Monegasque driver would not be too disturbed at the first chicane. Under these conditions, the straight-line speed gain could have offset the performance deficit compared to the top three.
With Max Verstappen and the McLarens ahead, Ferrari’s chase for a first win of the season becomes more complicated. Only Charles Leclerc will realistically compete for the top positions due to Lewis Hamilton’s grid penalty. The ultra-low downforce setup could have been beneficial if Charles Leclerc had started from the lead, controlling the pace and making overtaking difficult with excellent top speed—but this will not be the case. Friday’s pace simulations indicated that the RB21 and MCL39 were the favorites, and a pre-established one-stop strategy using C3 and C4 tyres for all drivers will likely prevent surprises. Only a more rubbered-in track and higher temperatures could create differences from Friday’s conditions. The Mercedes threat should not be underestimated, but on Friday the W16 was slower than the Ferrari in race pace simulations, and elevated temperatures will not make George Russell and Kimi Antonelli’s chase of Charles Leclerc any easier.
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