In Abu Dhabi, a challenge reminiscent of past times takes place, with two of the most successful teams in Formula 1 once again battling for the world title. McLaren starts with the calm of a team managing a 21-point lead, while Ferrari is forced to achieve a double podium, hoping that the rivals from Woking don’t get too close. The Scuderia finds motivation in the heat and the tires, but also clings to help from Max Verstappen.
“On paper, we are probably in a better position for various factors, including temperatures and the layout of the track,” says Frederic Vasseur, just days before the decisive race. Abu Dhabi presents itself as a more ‘neutral’ circuit compared to the last two, with Las Vegas suiting Ferrari’s characteristics more, while Qatar played to McLaren’s strengths. The Yas Marina circuit features some slow, 90-degree corners, such as corners 12, 16, or the 6-7 chicane, which are favored by a Ferrari with excellent mechanical grip and good traction from low speeds. On the other hand, corners of medium speed and long turns, such as 5 or the double 13-14, as well as the long and fast corner 9, are more suited to McLaren’s preferences.
Abu Dhabi is also notable for its long straights, which will penalize less powerful power units nearing the end of their lifespan. Overall, the track requires a medium aerodynamic load setup, allowing McLaren to reintroduce their new and unique rear wing, which was first introduced during the Brazilian Grand Prix. Ferrari, on the other hand, is relying on the new floor that showed positive results in Qatar on Leclerc’s car, generating great interest to see if the Scuderia can manage the logistical and financial challenge of bringing a second version of this floor to Carlos Sainz’s car.
The design of the circuit will be the starting point, but the 2024 Formula 1 season has taught us that tires, asphalt, and environmental conditions can make an even bigger difference. In this regard, Ferrari celebrates the return of the softer Pirelli tire compounds, C3, C4, and C5, which are the opposite of the harder compounds used in Qatar, which Ferrari struggled with. The asphalt here has greater grip and, above all, more abrasiveness compared to Lusail’s, speeding up tire hysteresis. In other words, the tires heat up faster due to the greater micro-deformations in contact with the ground, a process that generates heat. This is an aspect that, on paper, mitigates Ferrari’s difficulties in preparing the tires for a flying lap.
In Abu Dhabi, qualifying and the race are held at night, but the track temperatures should still exceed 30°C, a full 10°C higher than those recorded in Qatar. The window of operation for the cars shifts toward higher temperatures, a change that also favors Ferrari. Additionally, as already happened in Lusail, the first and third free practice sessions take place before sunset, with a subsequent cooling of the track for qualifying and the race. In Qatar, the ground-effect Formula 1 cars already showed extreme sensitivity to this factor, with track evolution tending to shift the balance toward the rear. In Abu Dhabi, the expected temperature drop is as much as 10°C, more than double that experienced in the last race, presenting an additional challenge in finding the correct setup.
Both teams need a perfect execution of the weekend to be crowned champions, starting with the management of qualifying. In 2023, the gaps were extremely narrow, with 15 drivers within four-tenths of a second, leading to the shocking elimination of Carlos Sainz in Q1. Managing traffic is crucial, as the tight third sector tends to create long queues, risking cooling down the tires of those attempting a flying lap, a scenario similar to Monaco.
The race pace, on the other hand, is limited both by front tire wear and rear tire degradation, not particularly favoring Ferrari or McLaren. “Turn 9 is long and high-speed, so it will be crucial for front tire management,” explained Simone Berra, Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, just hours before the start in 2023. “The key will be managing overheating in the third sector, including the exit from the 6-7 chicane that separates the two straights. Rear tire temperatures, if kept under control, can make the difference in maintaining performance.”
The Qatar race was free of the feared graining issues, which, however, were noticed on the right front tire in the last race in Abu Dhabi. This issue is troubling McLaren, as Lando Norris recently commented: “On some tracks that are more rear-limited, these problems don’t appear, but we’ve always been one of the worst teams for front tire graining. When we have it, we’re not the fastest, but as soon as it goes away, the situation changes.” Another variable is the number of pit stops, with simulations predicting similar race times between one or two stops. The strategy could be determined by traffic or by someone desperately trying to mix up plans to try something different.
The outcome of the world championship battle between Ferrari and McLaren will also depend on the third parties. Max Verstappen and Red Bull stand out, with the potential to be competitive, especially on a flying lap and at the start, provided they can repeat the difficult task of hitting the correct window for the RB20’s performance. Mercedes, meanwhile, starts slightly behind after struggling in Qatar. The Silver Arrows face higher temperatures and a critical third sector for the rear tires, aspects that don’t help the W15. However, the perfectly levelled asphalt will allow the car to work in a low and stiff configuration, which suits Mercedes well.
The determination of the midfield teams shouldn’t be underestimated either, with Alpine, Haas, and Racing Bulls engaged in a fierce battle for sixth place in the constructors’ standings. As with Ferrari, the heat and the track breathe new life into a Haas that struggled in the Qatar corners, but the absence of bumps and undulations will help Alpine once again lower its ride height, highlighting the strengths of the car. All the ingredients for an exciting show are there, but no matter the outcome, the Abu Dhabi race will be a historic verdict.
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