In Formula 1, it is customary that, in a context of general regulatory stability, the cars that will race in the new championship are generally faster than the old ones. This law – well-known at Ferrari – still holds. That is, within the framework of stringent constraints such as the cost cap and the Aerodynamic Test Regulation, measures that tend to rein in engineers’ creativity without completely chaining it.
The 2024 single-seaters should shave off average lap times compared to the 2023 models. At this time of the year, with engines off and work bustling in the factory between CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) and simulators, there is a proliferation of numbers, percentages, predictions produced by analyses that cannot have solid foundations due to the lack of elements on which to base them. A game we prefer not to participate in, in line with our tradition devoted to the evaluative analysis of concrete elements.
The virtual starting grid of the 2024 championship must necessarily be based on what was seen last year, especially in the second half of the season. Red Bull is the team that has shown the greatest potential. Needless to list numbers, the records of the RB19 are carved in stone. Behind the Austrian car rises the McLaren MCL60, which, from the Austrian GP onwards, and thanks to consistently effective upgrade packages, emerged as the second technical reality of the season.
The outcome of the battle seen between Ferrari, which appeared brighter after the summer break, and Mercedes is almost a draw. The two teams, over the course of 22 races, were practically equal (three points of difference in the Constructors’ Championship, editor’s note), sharing many problems and few moments of satisfactions. Although the SF-23 No. 55 of Carlos Sainz took the fancy of being the only car to break the RB19’s dominance in Singapore.
Given what has been highlighted in the previous lines, the 2024 championship is played between these four teams, with one team significantly advantaged over the others, considering the margin accumulated and keeping in mind that it could start work on the new model well before the others, as Christian Horner himself admitted at the FIA awards ceremony where Red Bull made a clean sweep of trophies.
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The RB20, in its immaterial version, is running on the simulator in Milton Keynes, tested by Jake Dennis, the team’s test driver, who recently made some references to the work done: “The RB19 is amazing, but hopefully, the RB20 is also good. I can confirm that it’s going quite well on the simulator, so we should be good for next year.”
Very summary indications that suggest, as expected, that the descendant of the RB19 is a faster machine than its older sister. The whole game is played here: how much faster will it be? And how much progress will the trio identified earlier (the entry of other outsiders like Aston Martin is not excluded a priori) make in just one winter?
Helping ourselves with round and completely invented figures, let’s try to reason: if the RB20 shaves off one second from the stopwatch, Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes must remove a couple. Simple, without dwelling on skewed predictions wrapped in scientificity. For that kind of analysis, mature times and coherent numbers will come to process.
This type of consideration has also been made by Charles Leclerc, who, speaking of future scenarios, stated that he is 100% convinced that the new Ferrari will make a leap forward. “The problem,” wisely observed by the Monegasque to AMuS magazine, “is that in F1, everything is relative. If Red Bull finds another second, we will all seem once again overtaken.”
It makes perfect sense: logical and disarming. The work that awaits Ferrari and everyone else is incredibly tough. Not by chance, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, towards the end of the season dominated by Max Verstappen, had shown hesitation in the idea that their teams could really close the entire gap before the new regulatory revolution hits F1 in 2026. Red Bull – a widespread suspicion – may not have deployed all its potential. If so, the margin to cut would be even wider: a titanic task.
“Compared to Red Bull, we have to recover several tenths in race pace, not just one. This means that the amount of work is considerable, but everyone within the team is well aware of the situation. We don’t tell ourselves lies within the team, and that’s why I have full confidence that sooner or later, we will complete our chase,” concluded Charles.
It’s that “sooner or later” that instills a bit of fear among Ferrari fans. Charles Leclerc cannot define a schedule; it would not be serious to do so in the absence of evidentiary elements. It is certain, however, that in Maranello, they do not expect to solve all the problems with a magic wand. The technical staff will set up a car based on different principles than those that worked on the F1-75 and its descendant, the SF-23. They will try to follow the path beaten by Red Bull, hoping to understand all the operating principles thoroughly to cut several tenths of a second.
If technical convergence is achieved, and if Red Bull does not have another hidden margin, then, from 2024, the gaps could significantly narrow. But we are in the realm of hypotheses and conjectures. Those that we do not like to make, those from which Ferrari and its leading man, the relativist Charles Leclerc, keep a safe distance.
Source: Diego Catalano for FUnoanalisitecnica
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