Ferrari doesn’t arrive with very high expectations at the eighth round of the 2025 Formula 1 championship, the Monaco Grand Prix, at a point in the season where the SF-25 has shown significant difficulties. We have often analyzed the problems of the Prancing Horse, and we are not convinced by the supposed “untapped potential” that Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur keeps defending so vigorously. Especially since his statements clash with the drivers’ feedback.
At the Imola circuit, this became more than evident, with Charles Leclerc explicitly stating he does not see or feel this elusive potential in the car. On the streets of Monte Carlo, car balance is everything and it is essential to allow the drivers to approach the walls and guardrails with the necessary confidence. The Maranello team has yet to find a stable operating window.
It may sound trivial, but doing so means extracting performance to the fullest. On the track that lies on the banks of the Santerno river, for instance, the setup built was totally out of sync for qualifying, while race pace showed positive signs. This proves that the issue is more related to setup and tyre management than to the car itself.
Qualifying is crucial and managing the operating window will make the difference. As we all know by now, Saturday in Monaco is everything for the weekend, and Ferrari unfortunately clearly struggles precisely at this stage. At Imola, the SF-25 displayed a marked thermal asynchrony at the beginning of the lap: while the rear quickly reached operating temperature, the front was still outside the window—particularly at the core of the tyre. This same issue affected the SF-24 in last year’s campaign.
We are talking about one of the negative traits the Italian team has carried over from the predecessor car. The Monaco circuit is particularly treacherous from this standpoint. The thermal profile of the circuit tends not to provide enough energy to the front axle, while the rear, already warm, risks overheating.
This asynchrony is, in fact, a clear issue that all teams will have to deal with to some extent during qualifying. McLaren, without doubt, is very well prepared in this area, as it has demonstrated by managing this parameter to perfection so far. It is a headache for Ferrari that must be managed carefully, considering their high sensitivity to this factor.
Can Monaco favour Ferrari? Undoubtedly, there are fewer compromises The first premise in the following: at present, comparing the car’s characteristics with those of the circuit does not seem very helpful when talking about Ferrari. Gaps are still very narrow and everything depends on the setup the Maranello team is able to put together and, consequently, how the various compounds are used. If there’s one positive aspect, it is that Monaco demands fewer compromises than other tracks.
The SF-25 single-seater particularly struggles to find a good balance between aerodynamics and mechanics, but on this circuit, achieving a balance between those elements is definitely easier. This could allow the team to find a competitive setup more easily, without having to sacrifice too much on the aerodynamic or mechanical front. The Ferrari SF-25 does not have a problem with mechanical grip, despite it being a widespread belief.
The Italian car does not lack grip at low speeds. Frederic Vasseur himself has clarified that the car is not weak in this area—but, once again, everything depends on the setup they manage to achieve. However, the Prancing Horse does suffer from certain shortcomings: peak load and vertical load—vertical downforce, which obviously penalizes the Maranello team’s car performance significantly.
In other words, at equal speed, the SF-25 generates a lower level of downforce in slow corners. Moreover, analyzing onboard footage, it is likely that the greater deficit is at the front. This trait has caused issues in the more technical sections of various circuits, giving the impression of a loss of grip that, in reality, is more related to flow management than other causes.
Ride heights could help the Ferrari engineers and technicians. Furthermore, considering the layout of the track winding through the streets of the Principality, cars run with significantly higher ride heights. A baseline characteristic, as we partly analyzed last weekend in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola, that could play to the needs of the Maranello team’s cars. For this reason, the gap to the top tends to shrink. We cannot expect a full leveling of performance, but this small benefit could help.
This weekend we will finally find out whether Ferrari can capitalize on the mechanical grip it is supposed to have, despite the fact that once again, the key will be tyre management. Theoretically, the SF-25’s performance should put it in a battle with Mercedes in qualifying, but if the team fails to optimize tyre usage, this potential risks being completely obscured, as happened last weekend in Imola.
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