Based on the feedback from the three free practice sessions, the third row achieved by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz at the end of qualifying is a disappointing result. It’s not just about the starting grid position, as Leclerc (fifth) was only thirty-thousandths of a second behind Lewis Hamilton (third), a breath away. Undoubtedly, two Ferraris in the second row would have made a visual impact, but the main issue remains the three-tenths gap to poleman Lando Norris and Max Verstappen.
It was expected that Ferrari might end up on the wrong side of a top-6 group clustered in a few thousandths, causing disappointment but not concern. However, if Barcelona’s results reflect the hierarchies, the gap to Red Bull and McLaren (which did not bring a single new bolt to Montmeló) still doesn’t allow the ‘reds’ to regularly join the battle for stage wins.
The track team did an impeccable job, drawing on the courage often called for by Frederic Vasseur, when in the final minutes of Q2 they chose to keep Leclerc in the pits after the first run. If Charles had gone out for a second attempt, he would have sacrificed the set of soft tires intended for the race start, so it was decided to take a risk. It worked out, by 90-thousandths.
Having passed the round, Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc in Q3 fought on equal terms with the two Mercedes, Norris, and Verstappen, and both Ferrari drivers believed they had a chance to fight for pole.
“Then we realized the potential of McLaren and Red Bull,” admitted Carlos Sainz. “We struggled all weekend with high-speed corners, still suffering a bit from bouncing in sections with high lateral loads, which complicates things and also affects tire management in the third sector.”
“We can clearly see that McLaren and Red Bull don’t have bouncing. I’m disappointed; after free practice, I thought we would have the chance to fight for pole position.” Charles Leclerc shared this sentiment: “We are further away than we expected, but this afternoon we simply couldn’t go any faster.”
Looking ahead to the sixty-six laps scheduled for tomorrow, the podium is still within reach on paper. However, it will be essential to overtake Hamilton and Russell, and in this context, the fresh set of soft tires available to the two Ferrari drivers (which the two Mercedes do not have) could become a trump card.
Simulations have shown that starting with a fresh set of soft tires compared to a used one provides a ten-meter advantage in the section leading to turn 1, a margin that could allow Carlos and Charles to attack the two Mercedes. This is on paper, or in the digital world; we will see if Russell and Hamilton decide to play as a team by covering the track or if each will focus solely on their own defense.
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Based on race simulations completed in the FP2 session, Ferrari’s race pace should be slightly better than Mercedes, but it seems that track position in the first stint will define ambitions, along with a possible undercut, which is very potent in Barcelona.
“A plausible goal for tomorrow? The podium,” stated Fred Vasseur, but it will require a combination of several factors and we are still talking about the lowest step. Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, if they don’t complicate things for each other, have everything to pull ahead.
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