Ferrari heads into the 2026 Italian Grand Prix with a genuine opportunity to fight at the front, but its Monza strategy could depend heavily on avoiding one potential weakness: the C3 Hard tyre. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton will both start from the second row, putting the SF-26s in an excellent position for the long run towards the braking zone for the first chicane.
Ferrari did not shine in qualifying. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton originally finished fourth and fifth in Q3, behind not only Mercedes but also Pierre Gasly’s Alpine and Oscar Piastri’s McLaren, raising several questions about the performance of the Scuderia’s new Power Unit equipped with the second ADUO development step. The full picture from a difficult Saturday can be found in our 2026 Italian GP qualifying summary.
Ferrari was then handed an important opportunity when Oscar Piastri was penalised three grid positions for impeding Liam Lawson during qualifying. As a result, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, as well as Max Verstappen, each gained one place.
The two Ferraris will therefore start side by side on the second row, immediately behind Pierre Gasly and George Russell. It is an excellent position from which to begin the race, particularly because of the long acceleration zone between the start line and the braking point for the Variante del Rettifilo.
Ferrari’s Saturday consequently produced both areas that need analysis and opportunities that could prove decisive on Sunday. The question now is whether the Scuderia can convert that improved starting position into a strong race result.
Ferrari Italian GP strategy revolves around one major tyre risk
The SF-26 has the potential to compete for victory, or at the very least fight for the podium with both cars. How high Ferrari can realistically aim may depend considerably on which tyre compounds it chooses to complete the Grand Prix.
Conditions at Monza are extremely hot, and high temperatures could make tyre management particularly important. During the first part of the season, Ferrari did not appear especially comfortable on the C3 compound in these conditions. At Monza, the C3 is designated as the Hard tyre and carries the white sidewall.
It is probably no coincidence that Ferrari evaluated its Friday race pace on the C5 Soft compound. The SF-26 showed very competitive long-run performance on that tyre, close to the pace produced by Kimi Antonelli while running on the white-walled C3 Hard. Ferrari had already shown encouraging speed during Friday practice, with Charles Leclerc finishing second in Monza FP2.
Medium-Soft could allow Ferrari to avoid the Hard tyre
In our view, Ferrari could attempt to manage the Medium tyres as carefully as possible during the opening part of the race before switching to the Soft compound for the final stint. That would create a one-stop Medium-Soft strategy.
An alternative would be to reverse the sequence and start on the Soft before moving to the Medium, which could provide Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton with better initial grip and a stronger launch at the start.
The wider strategic picture supports considerable flexibility. Pirelli expects the 2026 Italian GP to favour a one-stop strategy, leaving teams with several possible combinations depending on their individual car characteristics and how the opening stint develops.
However, Ferrari’s ability to execute its preferred plan will depend heavily on how competitive the first stint proves to be. If the opening phase of the Grand Prix is not particularly strong, the Scuderia could find itself with fewer strategic options.
Assuming the other leading teams complete the race with only one pit stop, Ferrari could then be forced to use the Hard tyre. That is precisely the scenario the team would prefer to avoid given the SF-26’s previous behaviour on the C3 compound in hot conditions. What happens from there would depend on how the race develops.
Kimi Antonelli could benefit from the tyre Ferrari wants to avoid
Kimi Antonelli faces a completely different strategic situation because he will start from the back of the grid. For the Mercedes driver, beginning the race on the Hard tyre could actually represent an attractive option.
The C3 would allow Kimi Antonelli to extend his opening stint considerably before switching to either the Medium or Soft tyre for the closing stages. That could leave him with a significant compound advantage over rivals on older tyres later in the Grand Prix.
In simple terms, the Hard tyre represents a potential risk for Ferrari but a major strategic opportunity for Kimi Antonelli. For Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, the priority will be to use their second-row starting positions and the SF-26’s competitive race pace to keep as many options open as possible.
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