Pirelli expects the 2026 Italian Grand Prix at Monza to be primarily a one-stop race, but the unusually low tyre degradation means teams will have considerable freedom over how they build their strategies. Soft, Medium and Hard tyres are all considered viable, while the theoretical differences between the main one-stop combinations amount to only around two seconds over the entire race.
That leaves Formula 1 teams with an unusually broad range of options at a circuit where track position, the start, traffic and the 23-second pit-stop loss could matter just as much as outright tyre performance. Dario Marrafuschi of Pirelli confirmed that the data gathered on track largely matches both Friday’s indications and the simulations carried out before the event.
Italian GP tyre strategy points strongly towards one stop
Most of Saturday’s running was focused on single-lap performance, but Pirelli still collected enough information to form a clear picture of how the tyres should behave over the Grand Prix distance. The most important finding concerns all three compounds: degradation is low on the Soft, Medium and Hard, while their performance differences are sufficiently small to make several combinations competitive.
Pirelli’s predictions also proved accurate in terms of outright lap time. “We expected a qualifying time of 1:21.5 and then it was 1:21.7,” Marrafuschi explained.
The race data followed the same pattern. “With reference to the race, we basically confirm the data obtained yesterday, which was quite in line with what we had before the event.”
The most significant factor for Sunday, however, is degradation. “The degradation data is also quite in line with what we expected. This means the data tells us that degradation is quite low, and it is low on all three compounds.”
That leads Pirelli towards a fairly clear conclusion about the optimal structure of the race. “This leads us to confirm that probably the one-stop strategy will be the key for Monza. With a pit-stop time loss of around 23 seconds and only 53 laps, it will be the best choice.”
The low degradation also adds another variable to an already intriguing Italian Grand Prix after Pierre Gasly’s surprise pole position highlighted the importance of execution and track position during qualifying.
Soft, Medium and Hard tyres are all viable at Monza
The unusual aspect of the situation is that Pirelli does not see one tyre combination holding a decisive advantage over all the others. Each of the three compounds can be incorporated into a competitive one-stop strategy.
“All three compounds in a one-stop strategy are an option, as are different combinations between those three,” Marrafuschi said.
The theoretical gap between the different choices is remarkably small. “All of these strategies are spread over a difference of two seconds. So I would say they are practically equivalent to each other.”
On paper, the quickest combination is Medium-Hard, with the pit window opening at approximately lap 24. The next option is Soft-Hard, with the tyre change expected from around lap 19, while Medium-Soft produces a similar overall performance. The order can also be reversed. “The teams can choose to swap them. I say Medium and Soft, but Soft and Medium could also be chosen.”
That flexibility means the decision is likely to depend heavily on the characteristics of each car rather than on a universal strategy that works equally well for everyone.
“In my opinion, it is a choice that mainly depends on the car, so it isn’t really a factor that will make a two-second difference,” Marrafuschi explained. “If a team decides to go for a better sprint at the start and have the pace in the opening stages, it could choose to start on the Soft, relying on a very low level of degradation.”
Why the main Monza strategies are so closely matched
The reason the different approaches are so similar comes down to the relatively small performance gaps between the compounds: “The lap-time delta between the compounds is two tenths between Hard and Medium and five to six tenths between Medium and Soft. But in race management, those few tenths become a difference of a couple of seconds. So I wouldn’t say they make a real difference during the race.”
Marrafuschi therefore considers a Medium or Soft start the most likely choice. Starting on the Hard appears less attractive and is expected only in relatively rare cases, with teams instead likely to preserve multiple options for the second part of the race.
The starting compound itself could consequently become one of the first significant strategic decisions of the afternoon. A Soft tyre offers greater performance at the start and in the opening laps, while the Medium gives teams a longer and potentially more flexible first stint before moving to another compound.
Ferrari has already shown a willingness to experiment with tyre usage during the weekend. In Q2, the Scuderia completed one run on a used set of Soft tyres, a choice also made by some other drivers. Ferrari’s qualifying was additionally influenced by broader technical factors, including the Power Unit energy-management problems described by Charles Leclerc.
Low degradation explained by strong thermal and mechanical resistance
Pirelli believes the low degradation is rooted in the way the tyres are behaving under Monza’s specific conditions: “The reason is that the mechanical and thermal resistance of the compounds is really good,” Marrafuschi said.
No significant warning signs have emerged either. “We haven’t seen any signs of porosity on any of the compounds. Even the C5 can offer good thermal resistance, while compound abrasion is also quite low.”
Monza itself also helps limit tyre wear. “Monza is not severe in terms of sliding on the track, so it is not severe in terms of friction and the wear is not so high.”
The circuit’s unusual high-speed demands have required teams to optimise much more than tyre behaviour. Ferrari, for example, has worked extensively on reducing aerodynamic resistance through its revised SF-26 FTM configuration for Monza, while the characteristics of the 2026 Power Units have made energy deployment another important part of race management.
Minor graining not expected to affect Italian GP race pace
The only tyre behaviour Pirelli has monitored particularly closely involves small signs of graining, mainly on the front axle when the cars are carrying high fuel loads.
Marrafuschi does not expect the phenomenon to become a significant factor. “It is very small graining. We don’t think it will affect the pace or create serious problems for the drivers. If they have this problem, I think they will be able to clean the graining and bring the compound back to its original performance.”
The effect appeared slightly more evident on the softer compounds and on the Hard tyre, but never reached a level that Pirelli considers concerning for the Grand Prix. That should give drivers greater freedom to push without having to build their entire stint around tyre conservation. It also strengthens the possibility of extending the first stint if race circumstances, traffic or track position make an earlier stop unattractive.
Used Soft tyres in qualifying showed the C5 can last beyond one lap
Qualifying did not produce any major surprises in how the compounds were used. Pirelli measured the difference between the Medium and Soft at approximately half a second in favour of the softer tyre, making the Soft the natural qualifying choice. There were nevertheless some interesting variations. Ferrari used a set of used Softs for one Q2 run, while other drivers did the same and in some cases were still able to improve their lap times.
“It is proof that the Soft compound has more than just a single-lap performance,” Marrafuschi said.
That characteristic is important for the Grand Prix because the Soft is not merely an aggressive qualifying tyre. Its ability to maintain performance across multiple laps, combined with the low degradation recorded during the weekend, makes it a credible race compound as well.
For Ferrari, the tyre picture forms only one part of a much broader Monza challenge. The team has also introduced significant Power Unit work, with the SF-26’s Monza Power Unit package focused on efficiency and energy management as well as outright power.
Pierre Gasly’s pole highlights importance of traffic and slipstreams
Pierre Gasly’s pole position for Alpine was one of the biggest surprises of qualifying, although Marrafuschi pointed out that the French team had shown competitive pace from the beginning of the session: “Alpine was competitive from Q1, so it was a very good performance from the early part of qualifying,” he said.
For Pirelli, tyres were almost a secondary factor in determining the final qualifying order. Other variables carried greater weight, particularly traffic and the slipstream: “In this qualifying session, traffic and slipstreams were more significant than tyre management. With these temperatures, we also didn’t receive any reports of tyre warm-up requiring specific preparation for qualifying.”
The final interpretation from Pirelli therefore focuses more heavily on how drivers positioned themselves on track and whether they were able to exploit a useful tow at the right moment: “I think it was more a question of traffic, the slipstream from other cars and a lot of strategy in that sense.”
That assessment is consistent with how decisive track positioning became during the final qualifying runs, when Gasly and Alpine managed to put the necessary elements together to take pole. Ferrari, meanwhile, emerged from a complicated session still in contention, with the latest SF-26 Power Unit development helping the team remain competitive at Monza.
Teams face a strategic choice rather than a clear tyre hierarchy
The overall picture ahead of the Italian Grand Prix is therefore unusual. Pirelli sees a one-stop race as the clear baseline because stopping costs around 23 seconds and the race lasts just 53 laps, yet there is no similarly clear answer over which compounds teams should use to complete that single stop.
Medium-Hard is theoretically the quickest option, but Soft-Hard and Medium-Soft are close enough that car characteristics, starting position, traffic and the opening phase of the race could easily influence the final decision.
The Soft’s ability to survive beyond one qualifying lap also gives teams the possibility of attacking the start without automatically accepting a major degradation penalty later in the stint. At the same time, the low wear across all three compounds leaves plenty of scope to extend or shorten a stint according to how the race develops.
With the principal strategies separated by only around two seconds in Pirelli’s simulations, Monza may therefore be less about discovering the universally fastest tyre combination and more about selecting the right strategy for each individual car at the right moment. The broader behaviour and development of Ferrari’s package throughout the weekend can also be followed in the site’s Ferrari technical analysis coverage.
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