After the first two races of 2024 Formula 1 season, in which Ferrari had done its part by confirming itself as the second force in the field, ahead of teams like McLaren and Mercedes but at the same time still far from Red Bull (especially against Max Verstappen’s RB20), in Melbourne the Prancing Horse was able to make its mark. In fact, by taking advantage of the Dutch driver’s retirement at the 5.278-kilometre Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne last weekend and by changing their approach and accepting to take risks to maximize performance, the Italian side has managed to secure the first one-two finish of the year, sending a signal of vitality to its rivals.
An approach that, data in hand, allowed the Prancing Horse to unleash more of the potential that clearly exists for the SF-24 car which, as said, places the Maranello team behind the world champion team, perhaps with a smaller gap than could be expected before the start of the championship. A mentality that was demanded by team principal Frederic Vasseur, which according to him is necessary to make a further step forward. The Frenchman, aware that with a defeatist attitude it would not be possible to put pressure on Red Bull, is fighting Ferrari’s fear of making mistakes, preferring a propensity for risk over merely “going through the motions”.
Scuderia Ferrari therefore goes to Suzuka knowing that the Japanese Grand Prix will theoretically be Red Bull’s hunting ground. The Milton Keynes team, on Honda’s home track, will try to react to the Scuderia’s one-two finish in Australia by trying to erase Max Verstappen’s retirement at the Albert Park circuit and reiterate their supremacy in this start of the 2024 Formula 1 championship.
As Fred Vasseur had explained in a recent interview for the Italian media, the red car will not see major technical innovations in anticipation of the update package that the technicians led by Enrico Cardile will bring to the Imola circuit, for the first European race on the 2024 F1 calendar. There had been an attempt to anticipate in the Japanese event some elements of the floor, but the need to have at least two components for the two cars in addition to a spare element convinced the Maranello staff not to rush things, trusting in the idea that there is still a way to fully understand the characteristics of the SF-24 single-seater.
Therefore, Scuderia Ferrari will try to confirm itself as the second force of the championship in the Japanese Grand Prix, attempting to keep McLaren, Mercedes, and Aston Martin at bay. In particular, the Woking car is feared at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit this weekend because it could be competitive in the snake section and the long support corners that make the Japanese track one of the most loved by drivers alongside Spa-Francorchamps.
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Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc have taken positive cues from the preparation for the fourth championship appointment in the Maranello simulator, with encouraging feedback from both divers as they look to identify the ideal basis to start on-track preparations for the next round: the hope is to limit the gap from the Red Bull cars and perhaps manage to put a red car in the front row, next to the usual RB20 of Max Verstappen, by beating Sergio Perez, but the forecasts on paper are certainly less optimistic than before Australia.
The success at the Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne has given great motivation within the Maranello staff: in the Ferrari Sporting Management there is an awareness of not having the best car on the grid at the moment, but the Ferrari technicians are eager to see the results of the upcoming modifications planned for the Grand Prix of Made in Italy and Emilia Romagna, which will take place at the Imola circuit in May, but there is hope to confirm limited tire wear on a track very selective for tires (Pirelli has chosen the three hardest compounds).
The weather forecast for the Japanese Grand Prix speaks of cloudy skies and low temperatures, with a 6 degrees minimum and 19 degrees maximum, which means for Ferrari the main difficulty will be to get the tires into the right operating window, while the track conditions should help Mercedes, which suffered due to the high temperatures in Bahrain and Australia, although this will most likely not be enough for George Russell and Lewis Hamilton to challenge Ferrari and McLaren.
The Suzuka circuit is a track that requires a medium load, so it should match well with the Ferrari rear wing that has been seen on the SF-24 car in the first three appointments of the 2024 Formula 1 championship.
It’s also worth pointing out that reports in the days after the Red Bull RB20 reveal claimed Red Bull are planning to go full zero-pod at Suzuka, embracing a concept Mercedes spent more than a year trying and failing to master before abandoning completely in early 2023. In just a few days we will see if these rumours were indeed true and what updates Red Bull will introduce for the Japanase Grand Prix weekend.
After a slightly disappointing performance in Australia, especially in terms of qualifying result, we expect Charles Leclerc to come back stronger this weekend. Suzuka was the scene of Charles Leclerc’s resurrection last year, the arrival of a new floor bringing the Monegasque back to life at the time he needed it most just seven days after Carlos Sainz’s greatest triumph in Singapore. A circuit of Suzuka’s layout will always reward a driver of Charles Leclerc’s natural touch and feel over Carlos Sainz’s more abrupt, reactive technique – most strikingly through the esses of the first sector, undoubtedly the key to the entire lap.
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