Friday at Monza has already revealed some of the first significant truths of an Italian Grand Prix weekend that, from the early indications, promises to be fascinating and filled with close battles. Even though the Monza circuit is considered one of the most extreme tracks on the calendar in terms of requiring very low levels of aerodynamic downforce, every Formula 1 car is still capable of shifting within certain limits from its natural or ideal working point. This flexibility is particularly noticeable with the current generation of ground-effect cars, where a very large portion of the overall downforce is generated by the floor. That contribution from the floor remains consistent from one circuit to another and does not vary depending on the characteristics of the track. As a result, the ideal configuration can end up being very different for each team, and the data collected in the opening sessions at Monza illustrates this point very clearly.
As was largely expected, the McLaren cars appear to be running with the highest level of aerodynamic load on the entire grid. Over the rest of the weekend this may develop further, but historically the engineers at Woking rarely push their cars too far in reducing drag. They generally stop before going beyond a certain threshold, even if this decision means giving away some speed on the straights. The early impression from the first two free practice sessions is that both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are already operating close to that particular limit. The McLaren cars are losing out noticeably on top speed during the long straights of the Autodromo Nazionale di Monza. The Mercedes power unit does not appear to be turned down or run any more conservatively than those of their competitors, yet the papaya-colored machines still show a deficit. However, the time that McLaren loses in straight-line performance is largely recovered through excellent cornering ability, with strong pace in almost every type of bend around the lap.
Just behind McLaren in terms of downforce levels we find Red Bull and Williams, two cars that show extremely similar figures in terms of aerodynamic load and reference data. Both Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz look like serious contenders for strong results over the Italian Grand Prix weekend. Max Verstappen seemed immediately competitive both in qualifying trim over a single flying lap and in long-run pace during the race simulations. He is able to exploit the natural strength of the Red Bull car in the fast corners, particularly through the Lesmo curves, the famous Ascari chicane and the long Parabolica. At the same time, the Dutchman also had to carefully manage the stiffness of the RB21 car over the tighter first and second chicanes that dominate the opening half of the lap. Carlos Sainz, meanwhile, is making the most of the remarkable aerodynamic efficiency and very high straight-line speed of his Williams. Looking at the sector comparison charts, it is clear how Sainz was actually leading the field until just before the braking zone at Parabolica, holding more than a tenth of a second advantage over Lando Norris.
Ferrari runs extremely light: tricky handling but faith in track evolution
There is no doubt at all that Ferrari is the car with the lowest level of aerodynamic load, and by quite a significant margin compared to the rest of the field. Charles Leclerc is the only driver who consistently recorded such high top speeds on every single straight section of the Monza circuit. By contrast, the Williams and Red Bull cars only get close to Ferrari’s performance on the first straight, while McLaren always remains one clear step behind in terms of maximum velocity. The engineers at Maranello have taken a very extreme gamble in their search for a breakthrough by running the SF25 with the absolute minimum level of aerodynamic downforce. This approach inevitably leads to difficulties. A car configured to be this “light” is predictably very hard to control and visibly unstable. The throttle trace data shows very clearly how Charles Leclerc was forced to drive as if he were walking on eggshells, especially through those sections of the track that demand more aerodynamic grip. These include the two Lesmo corners, the central part of the Ascari chicane, and the demanding entry into the Parabolica.
There is, however, a well-thought-out line of reasoning behind Ferrari’s aggressive decision. The Monza track had been washed clean by a heavy and intense rainstorm during the night before the Grand Prix weekend began. Because of that, the circuit surface will undergo a very rapid and significant evolution in terms of rubbering-in and overall grip levels. This effect will be magnified by the many support categories that are scheduled to race over the same weekend. At Maranello, the engineers expect that the evolving track surface will move in their favor, effectively compensating for the missing aerodynamic load by providing more mechanical grip from the asphalt. In that scenario, cars like the McLaren, which look very competitive now by making the most of the slippery surface with high downforce, may later find themselves at a disadvantage. When more grip builds up on the circuit, their extra aerodynamic load could turn into unnecessary drag that is not fully needed either for qualifying or for the race itself. Ferrari is essentially betting that the conditions will come to meet their extreme setup rather than the other way around.
On race pace the averages are close, Ferrari needs better drivability
Examining the lap time data from the race simulation runs, it becomes evident that the average times are grouped within just a few tenths of a second, although each team achieved these results in different ways. McLaren and Red Bull appear to have the most solid long-run pace, both teams showing a steady and consistent improvement as their stints progressed. Ferrari appears capable of being in that same fight but continues to suffer from its difficult handling characteristics. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton both made visible mistakes during their runs. Lewis Hamilton in particular took much longer to recover his rhythm after his off-track moment, and in the process he even lost a position on track to Max Verstappen. Despite this, Mercedes does not look far off the leading pace, although the team remains a small but noticeable step behind in terms of consistency and outright performance.
Gambles to be tested on Saturday in a qualifying session decided by thousandths
All of these setup choices represent calculated gambles by the different teams on how the track surface and conditions will evolve across the weekend. The teams that judged the situation correctly, and that manage to extract the maximum potential from their tyres as well as from the specific strengths of their cars, will hold a decisive advantage for the crucial qualifying session. The gaps over a single flying lap remain extremely small, with the entire grid of drivers separated by just a few thousandths of a second. Securing pole position at Monza, which is traditionally one of the most important and decisive pole positions of the entire season, will almost certainly come down to a matter of millimetres. Saturday promises to be thrilling and extremely tight, with Ferrari and McLaren gambling on extreme solutions, while Red Bull and Williams may benefit from having chosen more balanced compromise setups.
The Italian Grand Prix weekend is shaping up to be one of those occasions where strategy, setup philosophy and track evolution could all play as big a role as outright car performance. Whether Ferrari’s extreme gamble on low downforce will pay off, whether McLaren’s high-downforce approach will backfire as the track evolves, or whether Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz can capitalize on the more measured strategies of Red Bull and Williams, remains to be seen. What is already certain is that qualifying on Saturday will be decided by the finest of margins and will set the stage for a spectacular race at Monza.
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