The 2025 Formula 1 season began with one certainty: McLaren is the team to beat, continuing the path it had already started last year, when, thanks to targeted aerodynamic updates in key areas of the car, it managed to become the benchmark of the grid, overtaking that Red Bull which just a few races earlier had seemed unbeatable.
Behind McLaren, a crowded group of three teams has emerged, taking turns in contesting the role of second force. However, the only one that has truly managed to challenge the Woking-based team so far has been Red Bull, with an RB21 single-seater that turned out to be the wildcard many expected after the pre-season testing session, capable in its best moments of going head-to-head with McLaren, but only in the hand of Max Verstappen and also subject to enough downturns to relegate it to the role of fourth force.
One figure clearly illustrates Red Bull’s struggles over the past twelve months: the Milton Keynes-based team was one of those that made the least progress compared to the first five races of a year ago, doing better only than Aston Martin. As a result, among the leading teams, Red Bull is the one that has improved the least compared to 2024.
Looking at the data in this particular “ranking”, Red Bull is only in ninth place, while Ferrari does not go beyond sixth. A stark contrast to McLaren and Mercedes, who have made a substantial leap forward: they are not only the two top teams that have shown the most progress, but also among the most improved teams overall, behind only Alpine and Williams, who in 2024 suffered from starting the Formula 1 season with overweight cars.
In the meantime, McLaren has become the new benchmark on track, correcting the main shortcomings of previous projects: lack of aerodynamic load, understeer in slow corners, and excessive rear tire degradation, all areas in which it now perhaps excels more than anyone else.
Mercedes, on the other hand, has managed to reduce the bouncing problems that emerged a year ago, while also widening the operating window of the car and making the W16 much more stable and predictable, thus resolving one of its main limitations.
Despite the fact that the stories of Ferrari and Red Bull may seem intertwined, they actually follow very different paths. For Red Bull, once it reached the top, it inevitably became more difficult to find room for growth: after the dominant start in 2024, it was predictable that the performance delta compared to other teams would shrink. But that alone does not fully explain the current picture.
Already in 2024, in fact, the RB20 car had started to show the first signs of development issues: despite many new features introduced, extracting further potential from the car was proving increasingly difficult for the Austrian side’s engineers. At the same time, the car also became harder to drive, not only due to constant imbalances between the front and rear, but also due to a lack of performance in slow sections.
Some of those problems have resurfaced on the RB21 single-seater, despite efforts to widen the operating window. Adding to that the discrepancies found between wind tunnel data, simulator, and on-track performance, it becomes clearer why the improvement over last season has been so limited. The goal is to bounce back with the aerodynamic updates arriving in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at the Imola circuit, in which Red Bull has placed great faith.
Ferrari’s situation, instead, is both more complex and simpler to describe. At the start of 2024, the Maranello team had confirmed itself as the second force behind Red Bull, despite some difficulties in switching on the tires over a single lap. Over the course of the previous championship, also thanks to an excellent development path after the backward step taken with the aerodynamic update package introduced at the Circuit de Catalunya in Barcelona, the SF-24 showed concrete signs of growth, fueling hopes for an even more competitive 2025 Formula 1 campaign.
Instead, 2025 began with a cold shower: already at the Albert Park circuit in Australia, Ferrari found itself last among the top teams, with a gap that immediately highlighted one of the SF-25’s main weaknesses, namely, the lack of aerodynamic load compared to direct rivals, as Charles Leclerc repeatedly emphasized in the last few weeks. In some cases, the Maranello team’s technicians managed to lower the car’s ride height to recover downforce from the floor, but this approach was not always possible: often, on the contrary, it was necessary to raise the car to reduce plank wear and avoid the risk of disqualification, though at the cost of a noticeable drop in performance.
On the eve of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah circuit, Charles Leclerc pointed out how crucial it would be to verify whether the floor updates introduced in Bahrain had truly brought a performance leap. However, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix qualifying session confirmed the SF-25’s weaknesses: with the exception of Aston Martin, the Maranello car made the smallest improvement compared to 2024, gaining just 121 thousandths despite using softer compounds.
By comparison, McLaren and Mercedes managed to improve their times by nearly eight and nine tenths respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of their development. In particular, just one year ago in Jeddah, Mercedes had exposed all the W16’s limitations due to bouncing in fast corners and, despite the vertical drop-off in the race, still under investigation, showed clear signs of progress in qualifying.
Putting aside Charles Leclerc’s fine podium in the race, which deserves separate analysis, the Jeddah qualifying highlighted key concepts reiterated by both the Monegasque driver and team principal Frederic Vasseur: Ferrari’s growth inevitably depends on stronger qualifying performance and increased aerodynamic load, which would provide more grip in corners. There were glimpses of competitiveness in the race, but consistently starting from behind and having to chase rivals brings unavoidable disadvantages, as seen in the Bahrain Grand Prix, where losing two positions at the start complicated both the race and the effectiveness of the strategy.
It is now clear that, in order to close the gap and consistently compete for top positions, rather than relying on occasional strong showings at favorable circuits, which also applies to Red Bull, optimizing the setup, from which Charles Leclerc is already extracting the maximum, is no longer enough. What is needed are structural and impactful changes to the SF-25 car to improve grip and provide more balance options.
The first aerodynamic updates appeared at the Bahrain International Circuit, but that package had already been in development before the 2025 Formula 1 season started and was part of a predefined development plan made by the Italian side’s engineers and technicians, not a direct response to the difficulties encountered in the early races. For more substantial upgrades, further waiting will be necessary in an attempt to revive Ferrari’s season.
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