The 2026 Formula 1 regulation change is just around the corner, and for many teams, it represents a huge opportunity to put an end to McLaren’s current dominance. Adrian Newey has now offered his perspective on who could lead the way when the new rules arrive — and Ferrari is among the top contenders. Aston Martin has invested heavily in recent times and is dedicating significant resources to next year’s project, but reaching the very top will be far from easy.
There are several rumors suggesting that Mercedes might be the team to beat, but as is often the case, those claims lack solid evidence. The most crucial elements for 2026 will be engine efficiency and fuel performance — two of the key pillars of the new-generation cars. Another intriguing aspect will be the debut of active aerodynamics, and it will be fascinating to see how it affects the performance of the new single-seaters.
The 2026 pecking order
Speaking to James Allen on the “F1 Podcast,” Adrian Newey shared his predictions on which teams could be fighting for the championship in 2026, and among them, he included Ferrari. It is still too early to know the real balance of power or the exact progress made by each team, but the British engineer does not expect any major surprises.
“With such a big regulation change, everyone gets a bit of a reset. The chances are that the top teams this season will remain the same next year,” he explained. “Occasionally there are surprises — it happened in 2009. Brawn and Red Bull came forward, but in general, the same teams tend to stay at the top.”
Based on Adrian Newey’s words, fans can expect to see Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari continuing to battle for supremacy. The biggest question mark concerns Red Bull, which faces the significant challenge of designing its own power unit for the first time. The results achieved by these leading teams will also have a strong impact on the driver market for the 2027 season.
Aston Martin’s position
Adrian Newey also admitted that it is extremely difficult to assess how Aston Martin is performing in its preparations. Understanding how other teams are progressing is virtually impossible, and therefore, there is no clear benchmark to confirm whether a team’s own development is on the right track.
The British team is focusing substantial resources on the 2026 project, but joining the fight at the front will still be a formidable task. “You ask me how things are going? The truth is, I have no idea. You never really know if you’re doing well, badly, or somewhere in between compared to your rivals. You simply have no idea what they’re doing,” Adrian Newey concluded.
