F1 | Sky Sport analyst: Mercedes vs Ferrari, who leads the grid in Australia?. F1 | Sky Sport analyst: Mercedes or Ferrari, who is favorite in Australia?.

With the conclusion of the Bahrain F1 tests, Matteo Bobbi tries to clarify fans’ expectations: Mercedes or Ferrari, who starts with the advantage? The post-Bahrain grid sees the Scuderia of Maranello impressing, while their German rivals clearly kept their cards close to the chest. Paddock experts have compiled an initial ranking, highlighting the now-famous “fantastic four” occupying the top positions. But who will win in Melbourne?

Ferrari’s fastest time doesn’t tell the full story

The fastest lap set by Charles Leclerc during the final stages of the Bahrain tests should not be misleading. Ferrari has a strong car, perhaps even an excellent one, but the final timesheet alone cannot reveal the full potential of the SF-26 project. Matteo Bobbi, the familiar face from Sky Sport F1, analyzed the Bahrain test data in a video published on his YouTube channel.

Mercedes vs Ferrari: who is ahead for Melbourne?

“From a performance perspective, the team that is most ready and has already completed its planned program, while keeping some of its results partially hidden, is Mercedes,” explains Matteo Bobbi. Citing multiple paddock sources, it appears that the Brackley-based team has impressed rival squads the most. Heading into Australia, the squad led by Toto Wolff holds the status of favorite.

And Ferrari? “During this second week of testing, Ferrari seems to have overtaken McLaren: they introduced updates that improved the SF-26’s speed,” the Sky technical expert adds. This advantage is not so evident from Charles Leclerc’s fastest lap, but rather from a race-pace simulation conducted on the last test day before lunch. The long run was described as “impressive” by rival teams.

McLaren, Red Bull, and the rest of the field

McLaren is not far behind Ferrari, but the MCL40 still has issues to resolve. Updates will be introduced — some already for Melbourne — but the Woking team has significant work remaining. According to Matteo Bobbi, the McLaren is currently the car that handles high-speed corners best, while Mercedes and Ferrari extract a more balanced performance across all track sectors.

Red Bull follows, currently ranked as the fourth-strongest team behind the top three, as confirmed by engineers at Milton Keynes. Competing for the title of “best of the rest” will be Alpine and Haas, closely matched and immediately trailing the big three.