Ferrari’s crucial test at Zandvoort and the wind factor that could trouble McLaren
The Formula 1 grid heads to Zandvoort for the Dutch Grand Prix, where storylines are already building between the leading contenders. McLaren arrives in the Netherlands determined to continue its unstoppable momentum, with the team chasing an incredible fifth consecutive one-two finish. On paper, the layout of the Circuit Zandvoort suits the McLaren MCL39 perfectly, but a natural element could play an unpredictable role: strong coastal winds, forecast to reach up to 40 km/h, risk disrupting the papaya cars. Ferrari, on the other hand, sees the unique banked corners of the Dutch circuit as the perfect opportunity to put its updated suspension to the test, particularly in relation to floor wear and ride height management — two areas that have been under scrutiny since Budapest.
A track built for McLaren
After dominating in Budapest, McLaren now faces another circuit that highlights the strengths of its car. Zandvoort, with an average qualifying lap speed of around 210 km/h, is a twisty and technical track characterized by short straights and an abundance of medium-speed corners. These are precisely the conditions where the McLaren MCL39 generates superior aerodynamic load compared to its rivals, as confirmed by GPS performance data. While cooler track temperatures might prevent McLaren from unleashing its maximum pace — the team’s car typically thrives in hotter conditions — the expectation remains another front-running fight between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.
Yet, there is one critical factor that could complicate life for the Woking-based team: the wind. Situated on the North Sea coastline, Zandvoort is frequently battered by gusts that funnel unpredictably across the dunes and onto the track, destabilizing cars mid-corner. In 2024, the gusts were so intense that they exceeded any baseline measurement of car sensitivity, though McLaren’s strong aerodynamic platform still stood out as a clear advantage. However, recent evidence suggests the team is not immune to wind trouble. At the Hungarian Grand Prix, a sudden intensification of gusts in Q3 disproportionately affected the McLarens, leading to a performance drop right when it mattered most.
Andrea Stella, McLaren’s team principal, provided a detailed analysis after qualifying in Budapest: “Looking at the direction of the wind in certain corners, we identified some areas where we lost more compared to Q2, and we recognized a pattern. We can correlate this with our aerodynamic maps, and it’s not a surprise that in the corners where the wind variation occurred, we paid the highest price on the stopwatch.” His comments highlight how much of a threat wind remains at Zandvoort, where gusts could once again upset the balance of the MCL39 and bring rivals closer in what is expected to be another McLaren-dominated weekend.
Ferrari’s suspension and ride height test
Ferrari, meanwhile, approaches the Dutch Grand Prix as the most likely challenger behind McLaren. The Scuderia has introduced both mechanical and aerodynamic updates that have restored Charles Leclerc’s confidence in the SF-25, particularly in qualifying. With the new suspension, Leclerc no longer needs to rely on extreme set-ups that made the car nervous and difficult to control at the limit. Data collected before the summer break confirmed that Ferrari has managed to extract more aerodynamic load from the floor thanks to reduced ride heights, achieved with the revised rear suspension. Still, questions remain.
At the Hungarian Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc suddenly lost two seconds per lap, and the cause remains unclear. Among the possible theories is the idea that tire pressure adjustments — aimed at preventing excessive wear on the plank beneath the car — might have triggered the sudden pace loss. Zandvoort’s banked corners will provide the ultimate test in this regard. The final corner, with an 18-degree incline, and Turn 3, which peaks at 19 degrees of lateral banking, create enormous centrifugal forces that push the car into the track, accelerating floor wear. For Ferrari, this makes Zandvoort the perfect litmus test for the effectiveness of its new rear suspension system.
The spotlight is also on Lewis Hamilton, who continues to struggle with the SF-25, particularly under braking and during corner entry. Zandvoort offers fewer high-speed sections — the areas where Hamilton’s oversteer issues have been most pronounced — but remains a narrow and demanding circuit that requires absolute confidence in the car. The British driver hopes the summer break has cleared his mind and provided a reset, allowing him to finally build the trust he needs in Ferrari machinery.
The battle for the podium
Mercedes remains firmly in the mix for podium contention, aiming to repeat the result achieved in Budapest. George Russell benefited from Leclerc’s misfortune in Hungary, but the pace of the Mercedes W16 during the race was still encouraging. A return to the older rear suspension specification seems to have restored confidence in both drivers, particularly Italian prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli, by improving stability on corner entry. Zandvoort’s layout, which prioritizes traction zones and lacks long straights, could once again mask the weaknesses of the Silver Arrows and play to their strengths.
Of course, the Dutch fans will be firmly behind their home hero Max Verstappen. The reigning world champion arrives at Zandvoort with a Red Bull RB21 that has shown weakness in medium- and low-speed corners, though this does not fully explain the lack of pace during qualifying in Hungary. Red Bull sporting director Laurent Mekies explained: “It was a problem that didn’t seem related to balance. We couldn’t get the car into the correct operating window or switch on the tires properly.” Despite the setback, Red Bull remains confident that Budapest was an isolated case and that Verstappen will once again be in the fight for top positions at his home race.
Tire strategy and race expectations
While most teams have already wrapped up their major development programs, Zandvoort will still bring some fresh variables. The biggest change comes from Pirelli, which has nominated the C2, C3, and C4 compounds for the Dutch Grand Prix — one step softer than the selection used in last year’s race. This shift could create strategic variety, increasing the likelihood of a two-stop race instead of a single stop. As Hungary has shown, such scenarios often produce the most exciting Grands Prix of the season.
Overtaking at Zandvoort is notoriously difficult, even more so than in Budapest, which makes track position vital. That means Saturday qualifying could already determine much of Sunday’s outcome. With its unforgiving walls and narrow layout, Zandvoort is a driver’s circuit, and qualifying is often described as second only to Monaco in terms of intensity and spectacle. With the stands packed in orange for Max Verstappen, the stage is set for a weekend of drama, strategy, and crucial technical tests that could shape the rest of the season.
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