During the past several days, the Formula 1 paddock has been intensely analyzing and attempting to assemble a preliminary virtual ranking for the 2026 season based on the performance trends and indications observed during the Bahrain pre-season tests. Ferrari is widely considered to be one of the early favorites for the upcoming championship by many knowledgeable sources within the paddock, and there is certainly some truth to that perception. Nevertheless, as has been highlighted and underlined in numerous previous technical analyses and articles, it would be potentially misleading and highly risky to reach any firm conclusions solely from the timing sheets and headline lap times. Pre-season testing often contains much that is “unspoken,” and understanding the subtleties of car performance requires a careful and nuanced reading between the lines.
F1 2026, clues on qualifying pace: Ferrari SF-26 shows strong acceleration throughout the lap
Every Formula 1 team is naturally very careful in its public communications, aiming to manage expectations and reduce unnecessary pressure on its drivers and engineers. Andrea Stella, McLaren’s team principal for track operations, for instance, recently acknowledged in conversation with journalists that both Ferrari and Mercedes are a step ahead of some other teams, though the key question remains whether they truly are as dominant as early impressions suggest. To dig deeper, a recent technical study examined the maximum lateral and longitudinal accelerations achieved during all laps completed by the drivers of the top teams on the final day of testing in Bahrain. This detailed analysis revealed numerous interesting insights, highlighting the different strategies and methodologies that each team used to mask their true performance and hide potential strengths from rival teams.
The study did not stop at a general overview. Instead, it went further, analyzing both macro-level trends and individual laps in depth, examining subtle differences in how the cars behaved throughout various sectors of the circuit. By cross-referencing a wide variety of performance metrics, further insights emerged. Ferrari appeared to conceal less of its true performance compared to some of the other teams—or at least, this is the impression that can be drawn from the available data. When comparing the fastest laps of Lando Norris in the McLaren and Max Verstappen in the Red Bull to Charles Leclerc’s best lap in the Ferrari SF-26, clear differences became evident, offering a window into the general approach and mindset each team employed during the testing program.
In several key sections of the Bahrain circuit, particularly during acceleration phases, both Red Bull and McLaren frequently applied a technique known in racing as the “short-shift.” This involves shifting up through the gears very quickly to reduce strain on the drivetrain and manage engine RPM. While effective, the technique reduces overall traction and results in a lower top-end speed by the end of the straight. This lower top speed could also be influenced by a heavier fuel load, which is often carried during specific testing runs to simulate race conditions. This interpretation seems plausible, particularly when considering the minimum speeds recorded in the middle of the snake section, located in the second sector, through turns 5, 6, and 7, which are some of the most technically demanding corners on the Bahrain International Circuit.
Interestingly, while Red Bull, McLaren, and Mercedes occasionally brought the throttle down to 0%, Ferrari consistently maintained throttle levels above 20%, demonstrating a slightly different approach to traction management and energy deployment. In multiple braking zones, such as turn 11 and turn 14, the Mercedes car, driven alternately by Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, lifted off the throttle several meters earlier than their rivals, indicating a significantly higher percentage of “lift-and-coast” throughout the lap. While this technique is partly utilized for energy recovery and hybrid deployment, the magnitude of the differences between Mercedes and Ferrari in these specific zones also suggests a deliberate “masking” of performance to prevent competitors from fully understanding the car’s capabilities.
F1, absolute speeds: McLaren’s surge raises questions
Further technical data sometimes appears to contradict the macro-level analysis of lap times and sector performance. By reviewing all laps completed by the top drivers over the last three days of testing, focusing on minimum speeds in every corner, additional insights were revealed. Although McLaren initially appeared slower in certain corners on its fastest lap, the data showed that Lando Norris in the MCL40 recorded a minimum speed of 259 kilometers per hour at turn 12—5 kilometers per hour faster than Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari SF-26 at the apex. Meanwhile, Mercedes consistently ranked second in most corners, reflecting the strong all-around performance of Kimi Antonelli and George Russell over the testing sessions.
Although Ferrari’s SF-26 frequently remained ahead on the majority of the track, it became increasingly clear that the Maranello team intentionally pursued a different testing program. This is not surprising, given that Ferrari has historically excelled in pre-season testing over the past several years, often earning the reputation of being the “queen of the tests.” That said, it would be misleading to suggest that the Ferrari SF-26 does not have significant strengths. On the contrary, Ferrari demonstrates particularly strong traction in acceleration phases, and if the data can be taken at face value, the SF-26 appears to be an exceptionally solid and well-balanced car across multiple sectors.
Estimating the true performance of rival teams remains an extremely difficult task, particularly given the variables associated with fuel load and hybrid deployment strategy. With these highly sophisticated 2026 Formula 1 cars, the effect of an additional 30 kilograms of fuel is estimated to cost roughly three-tenths of a second per lap. Therefore, 30 kilograms more fuel could easily result in nearly one full second of lap time deficit. Zak Brown, the McLaren CEO, estimates that the MCL40 is currently sitting in third or fourth place, closely challenging Max Verstappen in the Red Bull. These are precisely the two teams that fought for the drivers’ championship up until the final race of the 2025 season, making this a highly relevant comparison for understanding potential performance hierarchies in 2026.
F1 2026, Ferrari knows Mercedes hid the true power of its engine
Another key element affecting performance is engine mapping. As Charles Leclerc himself has highlighted in interviews, teams have substantial flexibility this year with energy harvesting and deployment strategies, meaning that the performance of a car in a given sector can vary considerably depending on how the hybrid systems are managed. Maximum speeds recorded during testing, along with various paddock rumors, provide additional insight into the balance of power among the top engine manufacturers. By compiling all peak speeds recorded by the drivers over the three days of testing, calculating averages, and noting absolute peaks, several interesting observations emerged.
When potential slipstream effects are discounted, McLaren paradoxically recorded the highest top speeds, both on average and in absolute terms over the three-day test period—remarkable considering it is powered by a German engine. Ferrari and Mercedes, by contrast, closely matched each other’s maximum speeds, suggesting careful mutual monitoring and an awareness of each other’s strengths.
Charles Leclerc believes that the Mercedes W17 hid a significant amount of power during testing. It appears that Mercedes avoided using the most aggressive engine mapping, known as “Strat 1,” and primarily operated on “Strat 3.” Evidence for this comes from observing George Russell, who on the fastest laps was consistently the first to lift off the throttle, often using forced clipping to manage energy deployment before the end of the main straight. It should also be noted that Ferrari did not use its Engine Map 1 for a full lap, applying it only in selected sectors for testing purposes.
Overall, the data suggests that Ferrari’s SF-26 is a highly competitive car, demonstrating excellent traction, a strong acceleration profile, and consistent lap times. While McLaren and Red Bull appear to have some hidden performance variables, and Mercedes may have deliberately concealed power, Ferrari’s program reflects a carefully planned approach aimed at understanding and improving the car’s race pace over longer stints rather than focusing solely on headline lap times. This provides an early indication that the 2026 Formula 1 season will feature intense battles among the top teams, with Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull, and McLaren all poised to showcase their full potential once the championship begins this weekend at the Albert Park circuit in Australia.
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