Ferrari enters the closing stages of the 2026 Formula 1 season facing a difficult question: can the SF-26 win again before the year is over? Singapore appeared, at least on paper, to be one of the Scuderia’s best opportunities to return to the top step of the podium, yet victory once again slipped away. With several circuits ahead that could expose the car’s weaknesses, the final part of the campaign may prove particularly demanding.
As usual, much of the attention from the media and Formula 1 fans remains focused on Ferrari. A season that began with high expectations could ultimately end with another second place in the constructors’ championship. Since the dominant Michael Schumacher era of the early 2000s, Ferrari has never truly returned to being the undisputed force in Formula 1.
There has been plenty of speculation over the reasons behind that long-term trend, but no single definitive explanation has ever emerged. Ferrari’s performance has improved enormously compared with last season — admittedly not a particularly difficult achievement after the failure of the SF-25 — but the objective of producing a car capable of consistently fighting at the very front of the grid has still not been achieved in 2026.
Two victories have arrived and second place in the constructors’ championship appears reasonably secure, but those numbers remain below the ambitions of both the team and its drivers. Ferrari’s position against Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull throughout the season can also be explored through the Ferrari vs F1 Rivals statistics.
The season is now approaching its conclusion and, as practice begins for the United States Grand Prix, one question is increasingly being asked by Ferrari supporters: can the Scuderia win again this year? Another victory would not bring a championship back to Maranello, but it would at least provide a fitting conclusion to another season spent chasing from second place.
Why Ferrari’s 2026 F1 win chances look difficult
Marina Bay may have been one of Ferrari’s final major opportunities of the year to win with the SF-26. Singapore features numerous medium-speed corners, repeated braking zones and places a premium on a manageable car with strong mechanical and aerodynamic grip. Ferrari nevertheless found Max Verstappen and an increasingly competitive Red Bull RB22 standing in its way, despite the weekend being regarded as one of Ferrari’s strongest performances of the 2026 season.
The remaining races on the 2026 Formula 1 calendar present some uncomfortable characteristics for Ferrari. Leaving Qatar and Abu Dhabi aside — both remain confirmed, although international tensions continue to hang over them — the other circuits do not appear especially well suited to the SF-26.
Montreal is already long gone, but the challenges still to come at COTA, Las Vegas, Mexico City and Interlagos all include major full-throttle sections. Austin, Las Vegas, Brazil and Mexico each feature one or more very long straights where Red Bull and Mercedes could exploit one of Ferrari’s clearest weaknesses.
As was again evident in Singapore, the power produced by Ferrari’s internal combustion engine remains one of the team’s most significant limitations, even following the ADUO-2 updates. Lewis Hamilton has also identified Ferrari’s remaining power deficit as an area the team must manage during the rest of the campaign.
The SF-26 is also not particularly comfortable over uneven surfaces, another factor that could become important at both Austin and Las Vegas, where bumps can create additional setup and ride-height challenges.
Mexico and Brazil could offer Ferrari its best opportunities
On paper, Mexico City and São Paulo appear to offer Ferrari its two most promising opportunities during the remaining races. Even there, however, the long straights will not necessarily help Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.
Both events also introduce the additional factor of reduced air density. It remains to be seen how the Ferrari power unit designed by the technical group led by Enrico Gualtieri will respond to those conditions, particularly given its architecture based around a smaller turbine compared with some of its rivals.
Sepang might appear to contradict the argument that long straights automatically work against Ferrari. The Malaysian circuit also features extended full-throttle sections, yet Ferrari was competitive there. There was, however, an important difference: Formula 1 had not raced at Sepang since 2017, meaning every team approached the Grand Prix almost as though it were competing at a new circuit. The relatively limited amount of recent data available before the weekend helped to level the competitive picture.
Weather could also change everything. Rain is always a realistic possibility at Interlagos and a wet or disrupted Brazilian Grand Prix could completely alter the competitive order and put Ferrari back into contention for victory. Under conventional dry conditions without unexpected variables, however, the Scuderia’s chances of another win appear relatively limited.
Ferrari also has to overcome Max Verstappen
The new benchmark is Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver dominated both the Malaysian and Singapore weekends, while Mercedes and McLaren struggled more than expected. The teams that appeared to be the main victory contenders at the beginning of the season may now be closer to Ferrari in outright performance, but Max Verstappen is operating at an exceptionally high level.
The RB22 has been competitive on two very different circuits and, after Singapore, Max Verstappen has recorded the second-highest number of podium finishes this season behind Kimi Antonelli. Red Bull’s recent step forward therefore makes Ferrari’s task even more complicated.
Returning to the top step of the podium before the end of 2026 will consequently be extremely difficult. Ferrari’s improvement compared with last season is undeniable, but Maranello has not been the only team making progress. The development pattern across the season suggests that the growth of the SF-26 slowed at a certain point, while McLaren initially and Red Bull more recently made much more obvious steps forward.
Ferrari’s Austin upgrade could provide one final opportunity
Ferrari’s attempts to return to the front have not yet been enough and the same may prove true over the remaining races. Much of the team’s hope therefore rests on the SF-26 upgrade package arriving in Austin.
That development could still become the element capable of disrupting a competitive order that has started to look increasingly established. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc remain the least of Ferrari’s problems, and both drivers will be hoping the latest changes can provide the performance required to fight for another victory before the season ends.
Ferrari’s supporters will be hoping for exactly the same thing.
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