The Belgian GP held many surprises, both in terms of results and strategies. The dry and warmer than expected conditions, with track temperatures exceeding 40°C, greatly improved the performance of the Medium and especially the Hard tires, putting Russell in a position to win the race with just a single Medium-Hard stop. This crazy idea, entirely the driver’s own, was unpredictable beforehand. Unfortunately, the disqualification due to the car being underweight might annul his idea and/or performance, but that’s not the case.
Strategy recap
Before delving into details, let’s proceed with the usual recap. George wins by betting on a single Medium-Hard stop, while the other driver who tried the same strategy, Magnussen, finished in 15th place (later 14th, Kevin did a 17-lap stint on Mediums).
The strategy predicted to be the fastest was M-H-H and it rewarded Hamilton, who started third and finished second, 5 tenths behind Russell (later credited with first place due to George’s disqualification), and Piastri, who started fifth and even made it to the podium (third place later becoming second), ahead of his teammate Norris who had to settle for sixth place (later fifth) behind Verstappen due to a poor start. On M-H-H were also Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon, and Pierre Gasly.
Unfortunately for them, Red Bull paid for the wrong decision to use a set of Hards during FP1. Verstappen had the pace, but the final stint on Medium tires did not allow him to perform as he wanted and Leclerc brilliantly managed to defend the fourth position. Perez finished eighth (later seventh), heavily penalized by a strategic error that does not put him in a good position for his future at Red Bull. Checo finished by making an additional stop, fitting the Softs to at least take the fastest lap in 1’44″701. On M-H-M were also Alonso, who finished ninth (later eighth), Stroll, and Bottas, while Albon and Sargeant were on M-M-H.
Ricciardo finished 11th (later 10th) with a stop right on the last lap going on S-M-H-S, possibly due to a puncture (he would have finished in P11 anyway), while Tsunoda finished 17th (later 16th) on M-H-S. Zhou was the only retiree due to a technical problem that arose on the fifth lap.
The masterpiece of George Russell, Lewis complains, then wins
George did something amazing because he put himself in a position to win by betting on a single stop (we say this even though we know about the disqualification, as this does not count in strategic terms), but also because he was among the first to switch from Mediums to Hards (10 laps on C3) and then completed 34 laps on the harder C2 compound. Mercedes, until the moment of the second stop, was fighting for victory with Hamilton, and it was wise to differentiate the strategies.
Lewis has some regrets because he also saw the single stop as a feasible option. Until the eve of the race, however, the single pit stop was not considered a concrete possibility, so they decided to play it safe with Hamilton (who finished second, later first) and take a risk with Russell, who when he decided to extend and not stop anymore was in fourth place.
Lewis was elected driver of the day, but today this title should be attributed to Russell because he believed in and chased a chimera that eventually led him to victory, his third overall in F1.
Focus on the disqualification: exclude the strategy
There are rumors indicating that the choice to make a single stop was responsible for George Russell’s disqualification. The argument is that since he went on a single stop, the Hard tire might have had different wear than expected. This is hard to believe. George Russell’s Hards had “rubber” and performance. Otherwise, he would not have been able to defend against Lewis Hamilton. If the blame falls on the tires, it is difficult to accept this as a plausible answer. It could be an expedient used to hide something else. George’s strategy was correct; the fact that his car was found underweight is something essentially dependent on Mercedes. It would be convenient to blame Pirelli.
2 errors keep Red Bull off the podium, Verstappen could have won
Red Bull made, in our opinion, two fairly important mistakes that prevented them from finishing on the podium. The first, the most obvious, was with Perez. The optimal strategy was to go M-H-H and the Austrian team knew that, not having two sets of C2, they would go for M-H-M, as Max did.
However, with Perez, they made a mistake when, on lap 11, while he was in P3 behind Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, he was called to the pits to fit Medium tires instead of Hards. While everyone else could push on the C2 compound, the Mexican found himself on track with the C3, and his pace suffered. So much so that he lost the position to Oscar Piastri at this point and consequently also to Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen, who were on track with Hard tires.
Carlos managed to overtake the Mexican because he extended his first stint on Hards, then pushed in the central part on Mediums since he would only do 8 laps on them before returning to Hards.
The second mistake by Red Bull was with Verstappen, who could have also aimed for a single stop like Russell, counting on the greater aerodynamic load that would have helped him manage the tire. Max was 1.5 seconds behind Russell when he decided to pit for two stops. The two would have done the same strategy since they pitted on the same lap for the first stop. Red Bull could have gone for a single stop but did not believe in it. The podium was possible, and given how things went with Russell’s disqualification, Max could have even aimed for victory.
Leclerc exceptional, Russell takes the podium (until FIA checks)
Ferrari could not have done more. Charles Leclerc was exceptional. The Pirelli tires behaved excellently on all cars, as graining was nonexistent in the Belgian Grand Prix. The Monegasque driver could do nothing against Lewis Hamilton’s attack in the early laps, nor could he defend against Oscar Piastri, who attacked him with fresher tires. However, Charles Leclerc defended the fourth position tooth and nail, responding strongly to Max Verstappen’s attacks, who likewise had to give his best in the last laps to keep Lando Norris behind.
If we had been told that Ferrari would score more points than Red Bull this weekend, we would not have believed it. A great performance by Charles Leclerc in the race, echoing the extraordinary qualifying on Saturday. Achieving second place in the wet, which allowed him to start from pole due to Max Verstappen’s penalty, is no small feat, especially with this SF-24. Ferrari leaves Belgium as the third force, but much of the credit goes to the Monegasque driver, who finishes third thanks to George Russell’s disqualification. The Maranello team tried to undercut Lewis Hamilton with the final stop, but a slightly slow pit stop and some poor pace from the Ferrari SF-24 car in the final part of the Belgian Grand Prix did not allow the Monegasque driver to challenge his future teammate.
On the other hand, the plan for Carlos Sainz was not the best. Ferrari attempted to start with different strategies for their drivers, but the decision to use hards for the first stint made things more difficult for the Spanish driver, when he switched to mediums for the second stint. Extending the first stint with hards also didn’t help Carlos, who lost a lot of time in the final laps with used hards before mounting the mediums.
McLaren wasteful
The papaya-colored team wastes too much. It is not the first time this has been said, but it is now a fact. This time it was Norris who threw away the excellent chances he had of winning the race by completely messing up the first lap, dropping from fourth to seventh. He was then overtaken by Verstappen thanks to a magical undercut by Red Bull during the first stop.
Piastri, on the other hand, did everything right and built his podium thanks to a masterful second run on Hard tires. The Australian extended his stint and when he rejoined the track after the second stop behind Leclerc, he could count on fresher tires and easily disposed of the Ferrari.
In the final stages, he took advantage of the Russell and Hamilton duel to close in on the pair, but today he had nothing to beat Mercedes. The Stuttgart-based team confirmed what they showed at Silverstone, where they could have also secured a double. Mercedes has sent a strong signal that on fast circuits, it may have become the true reference. This remains true regardless of the disqualification.
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