The usual strategy preview returns, followed by a post-race analysis of the strategies actually used by the drivers. This will allow us to make a sensible assessment of everything that happened over the weekend. Tomorrow’s race will be quite unusual, as rain is expected in Melbourne, especially in the morning.
We already know that in case of torrential rain—if you’ll allow the term—the start will initially be delayed by an hour, with the FIA issuing updates approximately every 15 minutes. Hopefully, that won’t happen, but since it’s a possibility, set your alarm for 4:00 AM, turn on the TV, and you can be sure you won’t miss a second of the action.
So, what could happen tomorrow? If it rains, the situation is straightforward: depending on the track conditions at the start, drivers will choose their tires (Intermediate or Wet), and everything that follows will be a consequence of that choice. If, however, the forecasts turn out to be wrong (which we doubt, but anything can happen) and the race is dry, several strategic options could open up.
Pirelli’s Insights – Albert Park – 58 Laps
Before outlining those options, let’s take a look at the thoughts of Pirelli’s motorsport director after qualifying:
“Sunday will be a very uncertain day. At the moment, heavy rain is expected throughout the morning, with conditions improving in the afternoon. This could lead to three different scenarios:
1. A fully wet race, which would allow us to closely evaluate the new Full Wet compound modified with a new tread pattern.
2. A dry race, and in that case, based on what we have seen over the past two days with much less graining than before, a one-stop strategy appears to be the fastest, with Medium and Hard compounds playing a key role. The C3 and C4 have performed very similarly in this regard, showing almost no degradation and very close performance levels.”
Isola pointed this out because, with the introduction of the C6 compound, the C4 and C5 available in Melbourne have been slightly hardened, making them less prone to graining.
3. A mixed race, starting on a wet or damp track before transitioning to slicks. In this case, it is likely that drivers will try to extend their stint on Intermediates as much as possible before switching to Hards. The Soft tire is seen as a viable option only at the end of the race. If the second scenario occurs, the morning rain would likely reset the track surface, making graining very probable. In this case, a two-stop strategy becomes the most likely option, with Medium and Hard compounds taking center stage,” Isola concluded.
One-Stop Race, Two Stops Only if There’s Heavy Graining
Pirelli’s motorsport director covered all possible scenarios today. However, we do not fully agree with the two-stop hypothesis, even if the track gets reset by morning rain. Melbourne, being a semi-street circuit, is always quite dirty (or rather “green” when F1 arrives), so using Friday’s data when the asphalt was still low on rubber seems like a good indicator. In FP2, the C4 Medium performed very well.
Overall, we expect a one-stop race. Will everyone follow this strategy? That’s hard to predict. Some drivers will likely try the Soft tire to assess its behavior, but if the track is damp or dry, the choice will almost certainly be between the C4 Medium and the C3 Hard. Why? Because avoiding graining on the Soft would be very difficult. If a two-stop strategy is used, we could see combinations involving two sets of Mediums (M-M-H or M-H-M) or two sets of Hards (M-H-H), but only if graining becomes excessive.
Ferrari, of course, will be hoping for rain, even though wet conditions have never been particularly favorable for Maranello. Despite this, we can say with a slight margin of error that if the conditions remain dry, it will be very difficult to see a Ferrari on the podium.
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