Disappointment for Ferrari: imperfect target temperature in Melbourne Q3 compromises qualifying. Australia Q3: The Ferrari SF-25 is unable to express its full potential.

For the first qualifying session of the 2025 F1 season, we expected a tight battle among many drivers. The results of this night’s final free practice session, with gaps reduced to just a few tenths, suggested that nothing was certain in Melbourne. Ferrari, McLaren, and Verstappen remain on paper as the favorites, but be careful not to underestimate Mercedes: George Russell and Kimi Antonelli seemed to be in excellent form. Williams, on the other hand, appears to be competitive more due to an aggressive engine map than anything else, though the FW47 still proves to be an excellent car.

First, let’s review the final free practice session: after an initial check on the brakes of Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari, the Monegasque driver returned to the track, showing a good baseline balance, although he struggled with understeer in turn 13. Lewis Hamilton also had difficulty with rotation, especially in turns 6 and 10, where he lost quite a bit of time. To improve the situation, the team suggested some adjustments to the differential mappings. After the changes, the Briton improved his performance, while his Maranello teammate still needed to refine the minimum speed in turns 13 and 14.

The two drivers recorded similar times, but Lewis Hamilton used two sets of soft tires and requested further adjustments to the front wing load. After a pit stop, the English champion returned to the track but made a mistake in turn 3, correcting it with a counter-steer that forced him to abort the lap. Charles Leclerc completed a clean lap, but with no significant performance. Ferrari also worked on the brake balance, trying to improve the SF-25’s handling in turns 1, 3, and 6, but the overall balance still remained imprecise.

The Monegasque driver was not satisfied with the latest changes, complaining about excessive rotation that affected his confidence in the car. Charles Leclerc then requested another adjustment to reduce the load at the front, but the problem resurfaced in the following laps. Unlike McLaren, Ferrari was unable to find an ideal setup for the SF-25, limiting the car’s potential. A critical situation, given that the next session would be decisive for determining the starting grid.

Now let’s see how events unfolded for the two Ferrari drivers in the main event on Saturday. Qualifying for the Australian GP begins with a double twist: Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Liam Lawson are already eliminated in Q1, in a Formula 1 session that delivers the first fifteen, meaning those who qualify for the second session, divided by 604 thousandths. The gaps are really tight between Lando Norris’ best time, clearly a favorite for pole position, and Gabriel Bortoleto, who with a deadly move knocked out the Mercedes driver from Italy and, above all, placed himself ahead of Hulkenberg, who was eliminated along with the two Haas drivers.

Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton progress quite easily, with the Monegasque driver fourth after just one attempt, while the seven-time Formula 1 world champion is sixth, three tenths behind Lando Norris, but with an additional fast lap compared to his teammate. The impression from the free practice sessions is confirmed, namely, the gaps are incredibly tight, meaning that even the smallest mistake will make the difference. Both drivers used a new set of Soft tires, working on tire warm-up. Their laps were clean despite slight understeer.

Charles Leclerc requested more front load to improve the SF-25, while his teammate chose not to modify the front. The cornering speeds, especially at turn 6, the 9-10 chicane, and turn 12, are points of discussion. The Monegasque improved handling, while Lewis struggled in the first sector and in turn 3, losing four tenths in the final sector. Later, in the final attempt, Charles Leclerc did not complete the lap, already having a time sufficient to advance to Q2, while the Briton managed to improve but made a significant mistake at turn 13, confirming his difficulties.

Q2 was more straightforward, with no major surprises among those eliminated, although seeing Fernando Alonso outside the top ten definitely raises questions about the competitiveness of Aston Martin. Joining him there is also his teammate Lance Stroll. In short, the AMR25 didn’t perform well, as expected. By a whisker, Isack Hadjar missed out on making it to Q3 with Racing Bulls.

Jack Doohan has something to regret, as during his final fast lap, he was effectively blocked by his teammate Pierre Gasly during the out-lap at the final corner. The Australian therefore had to watch Q3 from the pit. McLaren remains the benchmark, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris leading the pack: Max Verstappen was third, ahead of George Russell and the Ferrari SF-25 cars of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.

The Maranello team has increased the engine revs to obtain more precise data on aerodynamic resistance. Charles Leclerc pushed to the limit, using every inch of the track, activating the Soft tires with a strong acceleration before attempting his lap. The Monegasque’s lap was good, with a well-balanced car despite the used tires. Lewis Hamilton also improved handling but remained behind his teammate despite using new tires. After a pit stop to analyze the telemetry, both returned to the track with new Soft tires.

Charles Leclerc’s lap was clean but not particularly fast, while his teammate struggled with handling but recovered in the final sector. The times were close, but Charles complained about degradation of the left front tire. In the final attempt, Lewis Hamilton lost control in turn 12, spinning without consequences after two otherwise good sectors. The Ferrari cars continue to suffer in getting the tires up to temperature, with the Monegasque complaining of strong understeer, requesting more front wing.

Q3 unfortunately brings Ferrari fans back to reality, if not even lower. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton do not go beyond the fourth row, having to settle for watching the rear wings of Yuki Tsunoda and Alex Albon, both ahead of them. The SF-25 confirms the issues faced during FP3, and although it showed perhaps the best race pace yesterday, all is undone when starting so far behind.

Charles Leclerc is aggressive and sets a good lap on his first attempt, but loses some time in the second sector and in turn 11. Lewis Hamilton struggles more, especially in the third sector, where he is forced to correct the car with a counter-steer. The Ferrari SF-25 is unable to express its full potential, with several factors limiting its performance. Lewis suffers more than his teammate, lacking feel with the car. After the first attempt, both return to the pits for a brief stop before heading back out for the final attempt.

Charles Leclerc makes a mistake in turn 3, losing at least a tenth and a half, and decides to abort the lap. Lewis Hamilton slightly improves but remains slower than his teammate. In the end, Ferrari finishes with a disappointing seventh and eighth place. The car’s balance on the final attempt seemed to change, making it difficult to understand what went wrong. Most likely, the target temperature was incorrect, and as a result, the ground contact footprint, removing the necessary grip. This likely caused the balance issues.

As predicted before the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season, McLaren confirms itself as the top force, at least on a single lap: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri create a gap and will start from the front row ahead of an ever-determined Max Verstappen, even though the RB21 is certainly not the dominant car it was almost a year ago. An excellent performance also for George Russell, fourth and thus in a position to fight for podium positions, considering the race pace shown yesterday by the Mercedes W16 with hard tires.

— see video above —