The Zandvoort circuit woke up this morning under a timid sun, sometimes still surrounded by clouds. It’s not raining, which is already good news, but the wind has returned and is expected to reach around 30 km/h today, with peaks of up to 45 km/h. The race, scheduled to start at 15:00 Italian time, is expected to take place in dry conditions.
However, the drivers will find a track that is certainly not in optimal condition. Although qualifying didn’t require the use of wet tires, around 17:00 a real storm hit the track, washing away all the rubber and making the asphalt green again.
Pirelli’s advice – Zandvoort Circuit – 72 laps
To understand how this might impact today’s race, here’s what Mario Isola said at the end of yesterday: “The data collected during free practice confirms the pre-race simulations. On paper, a one-stop strategy is the fastest, with the C3/C1 combination preferable to C2/C3: in the first case, the pit stop window can be between lap 24 and lap 30, while in the second, it should start four laps later and end around lap 34.”
In the press conference held by the motorsport director inside the Pirelli motorhome, he added: “The C1 will also need a few laps to get up to temperature and perform at its best. For this reason, the undercut when switching from Soft to Hard may not be so powerful.”
Watch out for the overcut, could this be the key to the race?
Mario Isola highlighted what could be the key strategic factor in the race. On a track like Zandvoort, where overtaking will be very difficult for everyone, drivers will try to manage their tires effectively in the first stint, mostly on Softs or possibly Mediums, before switching to Hards for the final run.
The Soft C3 will certainly offer an advantage over the Medium C2 in the first laps, but it could then be affected by the well-known graining problems, which hit Ferrari drivers on Friday. The green track conditions will increase the likelihood of this happening. Therefore, opting for the yellow compound to tackle the first part might involve sacrificing grip, especially at the start, but it could then provide an extra performance boost when those starting on Softs begin to suffer from graining and/or degradation. Additionally, it will offer that extra speed to exploit when rivals switch to the Hard, which will struggle to find performance in the first few laps.
The overcut could thus prove to be a rather powerful weapon in these conditions, and with relatively fixed strategies, those who manage the Softs better in the first stint, or who opted for the Medium, could take advantage during the hectic pit stop phases.
Given the graining problems seen on Friday, Ferrari might be better off immediately focusing on a Medium/Hard tactic to minimize risks. It will be interesting to see how the battle for victory between Norris, or rather McLaren, and Verstappen plays out.
P.S: Looking at the remaining tire sets available, the drivers won’t lack alternative solutions if the race is neutralized by red flags or a Safety Car. The rain over the weekend has helped save an extra set or two.
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