The 2021 Formula 1 season gad started with some very interesting questions. The regulatory change resulted in a more impactful rear load reduction than expected and many teams had in fact underestimated the restrictions imposed by the federation, so much so that most of the technical directors were sure their teams would be able to return to 2020 performances during the first part of the current season.
However, in all conditions, lap times turned out to be slower than last season. The lowest delta, comparing the performances from one year to the next, was in Imola (1.1%) and in Austria with 8 tenths between the 2020 and 2021 poles (1.2%). The highest gap in Hungary, practically 2 seconds (2.7%).
The performance improvements of the power units ended up compensating for some loss due also to the new updated tires, but nothing more. We recall that Pirelli introduced a major update of the front tires in winter, eventually replacing the rear train as well after what happened in Baku.
It is not clear how much slower the 2021 tire is; a technician consulted by Formu1a.uno reports that “once the car was balanced, the tire did not seem significantly slower, also due to the decrease in pressure; it certainly isn’t faster”. And as former Scuderia Ferrari driver Fernando Alonso said a few days ago it is a “more delicate” tire.
In addition to this, remember that the tires impact the way the car performs and how the technicians need to design the aerodynamic platform, as well as how to setup the car.
Even exaggerating and eliminating the tire variable, the deterioration in performance appears very heavy.
It seems unlikely that the teams will be able to progress further, as the work on 2022 has long since started massively. We have seen interesting and continuous updates introduced, especially from Red Bull, which have certainly worked but which have not diminished the gap compared to the previous season, when teams still brought updates to the track, even in the second half of the season (especially Red Bull), something that will not happen this year.
This suggests that the only team that had a certain margin to be less slow was Mercedes. Simply because, in addition to being heavily penalized, it had also taken the wrong path of development. Interrupted after the winter tests in Bahrain and revised between March and April with the updates brought to the track at Silverstone that fixed things a bit.
The Red bull case in Hungary is interesting because Verstappen was 1.0 second slower than in 2020; it would be within the average, but last year he had an unlucky qualifying. The race pace clearly showed that he could have been faster.
Normally Verstappen showed a lot of consistency in performance, remaining on average close to the 1.0 sec loss compared to 2020 from Bahrain to Silverstone. Even only +0.3 sec in Barcelona and 0.4 ″ in Imola. Theoretically in Budapest Max jumped to almost +1.5 seconds of difference, even if the W12 even stopped at +2.0 sec. However, Mercedes remained more or less in line with its average gap even though the track this year was a bit slower due to the very high temperatures.
It was the RBR16B that almost completely missed out on qualifying performance in Budapest; at least 4 tenths of the average. It had already happened in Portimao when Max stayed further than usual from his average.
The point is that Milton Keynes’s car in 9 out of 11 races has shown to lose on average 6 tenths less than the W12 from their previous cars, these were the only two cases in which the loss was almost equivalent.
Formula 1 2022 will be very slow: although it is too early to have precise technical indications on 2022, it seems that the guidelines show less convenience in raising the rake of the cars.
For the moment nothing is carved in stone and there may be different interpretations. On the other hand, the main concerns of the designers seem to be focused on what they will get from the new engines, which will have to compensate for the 8% power reduction due to fuels with ethanol, offer energy available for longer and reduced fuel consumption.
From the simulators, for now, rather disappointing numbers are coming out, especially in terms of performance. There is talk of 2022 cars even 4 seconds slower in this development phase with most of the time lost at high speeds, less in slow corners. With an important criticality in being able to work on the floor due to very deep aerodynamic limitations.
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