According to formu1a.uno, a Formula 1 team indicated that a time of 1.30.5 could be good enough to take pole position in the qualifying session for the first Grand Prix of the new season, which will take place in Sahkir next weekend, based on their simulations. This would indicate a gap of 1.5 seconds, which is much higher than the 5 tenths predicted from the average simulations sent by the teams to Pirelli. F1 experts Giuliano Duchessa and Andrea Vergani explain why:
What worsens the performance of the new Formula 1 cars is porpoising, that particular phenomenon linked to an important separation of the air flow under the car due to an accentuated aerodynamic instability that makes them jump, if not properly balanced in the set-up. A completely new phenomenon for the teams, ‘intrinsically’ linked to the new concept of cars, and which the various teams had not noticed in the factory. Porpoising in Bahrain can worsen performance by even 7 tenths of a second because an “important compromise structure” is required.
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The Sahkir circuit is not the best circuit for porpoising management. The asphalt is particularly bumpy and needs a rather soft set-up in order to gain time in the medium and slow corners. To better manage porpoising, the opposite would be needed: an asphalt that is as smooth as possible and a circuit with many fast corners, therefore also quite rigid set-ups.
Considering these 7 tenths caused by the bouncing, the result is a simulation of 1.31.2, half a second below the time set by Max Verstappen on compound C5 yesterday and over two seconds slower than the 2021 qualifying session. However, drivers will be able to use the C3 tyre in qualifying, which should be one second slower. For comparison, in the 2021 pre-season tests, the Dutch world champion driver had set the same time, on compound C5, as in the qualifying for the Bahrain GP albeit on C3. However, this year given the new generation of cars and with a better understanding, many teams are expecting to fall short of the times they set in the tests.
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