Twenty-two seconds. This was the final advantage of Lando Norris’s McLaren over Max Verstappen’s Red Bull in the Dutch Grand Prix. A gap consistent with what was recorded in Budapest, a track similar in type to the Dutch one, but much more significant, considering how in Hungary the world champions suffered from a not particularly happy strategy. At Zandvoort, however, Norris and the MCL38 displayed such a superior pace that they overturned yet another pole position wasted at the start. With nine races remaining, McLaren is absolutely a candidate for the world championship, particularly the constructors’. Ferrari will play the role of a wild card in this chase, relying on the arrival of updates and more favorable tracks to insert itself into the fight at the top.
McLaren infallible in development
What impressed at Zandvoort was the 7 tenths per lap deficit that Verstappen suffered before the stop after losing the DRS tow from Norris. In the second stint, the British driver’s average advantage settled at around 3 tenths per lap, with the uncertainty of how much number 4 was actually pushing without significant pressure. However, it would be premature to generalize the overwhelming superiority of McLaren seen at Zandvoort. One cannot ignore how the Dutch track is among those that best highlight the qualities of the MCL38. “Zandvoort, like Budapest and Barcelona, falls into the category of circuits characterized by long, medium-speed corners, which suit our car’s characteristics very well,” commented Andrea Stella already on Saturday, instilling confidence ahead of the trip to Brazil at the end of the year.
One must also consider the unusual nature of the weekend, influenced by the wind and the actual dispute of only one dry free practice session. The limited preparation time on track confirms the ease of setup of the McLaren, indicating a wide operating window and effective simulation tools. The 20 seconds at the finish line are therefore not solely due to the updates that arrived in the Netherlands, which nonetheless prove to be valid. “Since last year’s Austrian Grand Prix, McLaren has brought updates that have always worked immediately,” observes Toto Wolff. The Zandvoort package and victory offer yet another confirmation of a team infallible in development, used to turn medium-slow corners from a weakness into a strength. This all instills further confidence in the upcoming updates expected by the end of the year, already announced by Andrea Stella.
Red Bull beaten but not out
Never before has the world title appeared an achievable goal for McLaren, particularly the constructors’, but be careful not to consider it a walk in the park. At Woking, there is awareness that in some areas Red Bull is still ahead, especially in efficiency in low-drag configuration and incisiveness in high-speed corners. Therefore, there is reason to expect a Red Bull in better shape at Monza than at Zandvoort, a track among the least suited to the world champions. The RB20 does not stand out in either high-downforce configuration or medium-slow corners, as highlighted in the Netherlands by the repeated complaints of the drivers in the double turn 9-10.
To defend the world title, however, a response in development will be needed to improve balance and widen the competitiveness range of the RB20. In the Netherlands, the Milton Keynes team conducted comparisons with some older floor specifications, only to race with the latest version or at least one not earlier than that of Barcelona. “The positive thing is that now we understand what’s happening in the car. Now it’s all about how quickly we can solve the problems, but we know what they are and what we’re missing,” reports Sergio Perez. A race against time now begins to put Max Verstappen in a position to keep up with the McLarens even on less favorable tracks.
Racehorse Ferrari
In the Netherlands, Ferrari comes back to life in the race, immediately evident from the pressure Charles Leclerc manages to exert on Oscar Piastri during the first stint. The closeness to McLaren opens the door for an undercut, perfectly exploited to gain two positions thanks to George Russell’s slow stop. In the second part of the race, Ferrari continues to show notable pace, with the Monegasque driver initially slower than Max Verstappen but then closing in towards the end, keeping the gap overall unchanged. Carlos Sainz’s comeback is also positive, managing to overtake Sergio Perez’s Red Bull RB20.
The Reds confirm greater competitiveness in the race compared to the potential expressed in qualifying, this time accentuated by the difficulty in getting the tires up to temperature on a cold Zandvoort during the single lap, a recurring problem throughout the 2024 Formula 1 season. “I don’t think it’s about the amount of fuel but about the tires and how we heat them up in qualifying, perhaps favoring their preservation in the race,” confirms Carlos Sainz. “Clearly today we managed to keep them alive and manage them while pushing quite hard, while others struggled a bit more.” – he pointed out.
The goal is to find a better compromise between Saturday and Sunday, despite the fact that Frederic Vasseur argues that the situation, although reversed, is more balanced compared to last year. The podium at the Zandvoort circuit is still a positive result for a Ferrari that continues to have one of its main gaps in medium-slow, long corners. The scenario should be different next month at Monza, Baku, and Singapore. “The fact that we are better in short corners will help us,” anticipates Fred Vasseur.
Red variable
In addition to seeing a theoretically revitalized Ferrari thanks to a more favorable track, the first aerodynamic update package since June should also arrive at for the Italian Grand Prix next weekend. The developments will certify how much the Prancing Horse has clarified the origin of the bouncing problems suffered with the Barcelona floor. “I feel like we’re still a bit behind in understanding it,” says a more cautious Carlos Sainz compared to other voices from Maranello. “Hopefully, this new floor or the updates we’ll bring soon will make the problems disappear.”
It will also be interesting to assess the performance gain, both thanks to increased aerodynamic load and the possibility of adopting lower ride heights without having to contain porpoising. “If we can make a jump of one or two tenths, everything will change. But we also know that everyone is improving,” comments Fred Vasseur. The leap that Ferrari will be able to express will also be relevant for the title fight. A more competitive Red could find itself ahead of Red Bull on some occasions but also take points away from McLaren, as happened precisely at Zandvoort.
And then there’s Mercedes, so convincing before the summer break and now suddenly struggling in the Netherlands. “A box full of surprises,” team principal Toto Wolff defines it. “It doesn’t seem like the car that made a one-two three weeks ago.” If tire overheating had affected qualifying performance, reading the race becomes more complex. Toto Wolff wonders how much the result depends on the track, setup, or updates, with the Spa floor mounted on both cars. Mercedes is seeking answers at a time when the only team without questions seems to be McLaren.
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