Why Ferrari’s aerodynamic advantage may outweigh its engine deficit in Belgium. Ferrari’s Spa package could erase its biggest weakness against Mercedes.

Mercedes increasingly wary of Ferrari as SF-26 could shine at the Belgian Grand Prix despite power deficit

Ferrari heads into the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix carrying strong momentum and growing confidence, with Mercedes reportedly viewing the Scuderia as one of the biggest threats at Spa-Francorchamps. Although Ferrari continues to trail Mercedes in outright engine performance, recent developments suggest that the SF-26 possesses characteristics capable of offsetting much of that disadvantage on one of Formula 1’s fastest circuits.

After victories for Lewis Hamilton in Barcelona and Charles Leclerc at Silverstone, Ferrari has demonstrated that its development programme is delivering consistent gains. Those results have changed the perception inside the paddock, with rivals no longer viewing the Italian team as an occasional challenger but as a genuine contender for race victories across a variety of circuit layouts.

Ferrari still chasing engine performance despite recent improvements

Since the introduction of Formula 1’s new power unit regulations in 2026, Ferrari has faced a measurable deficit in internal combustion engine performance compared with Mercedes. Reports indicate that the German manufacturer continues to enjoy an advantage, while Red Bull is believed to hold an even stronger benchmark in overall engine efficiency.

Ferrari attempted to reduce that gap by introducing an upgraded power unit at the Austrian Grand Prix. Although the revised engine delivered a modest improvement, the increase in performance fell short of the team’s original expectations, with estimates suggesting only a small gain in horsepower. As a result, engineers in Maranello are already working on another evolution of the power unit in an effort to recover additional performance later in the season.

Despite that remaining shortfall, Ferrari has continued to close the competitive gap thanks to major aerodynamic improvements and a steadily evolving SF-26 package, allowing both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc to consistently fight near the front.

Why Spa could favour Ferrari despite the long straights

According to reports from the Italian media, Mercedes has become increasingly cautious about Ferrari’s prospects at Spa-Francorchamps following Charles Leclerc’s commanding victory at Silverstone. Rather than considering Ferrari an outsider, the Brackley-based team reportedly expects the Scuderia to challenge seriously for victory, even on a circuit traditionally favouring powerful engines.

The confidence comes from the Italian side’s aerodynamic philosophy. While the SF-26 may still lack some straight-line power compared to the Mercedes W17, its highly efficient floor and bodywork generate exceptional aerodynamic performance through medium- and high-speed corners. That balance could prove especially valuable in Spa’s demanding middle sector, where overall efficiency often outweighs pure engine output.

Ferrari engineers are also optimistic that the car’s aerodynamic platform will reduce the impact of energy management issues that have affected the team at other venues. Although Spa’s long full-throttle sections naturally place heavy demands on the hybrid system, the SF-26’s inherent downforce allows Ferrari to run less aggressive aerodynamic compromises than would otherwise be necessary.

Key technical change could unlock additional straight-line speed

Another factor attracting attention ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix is Ferrari’s expected technical configuration for the weekend. Recent reports suggest the Scuderia could remove its blown exhaust flap system for Spa in order to prioritise top speed over maximum rear downforce.

The current solution directs hot exhaust gases toward the lower section of the rear wing to increase aerodynamic load, but that benefit comes at the cost of engine performance. Engineers believe disabling the system at Spa could recover several horsepower while sacrificing relatively little lap time, given the circuit’s unique layout and emphasis on straight-line efficiency.

If implemented, the change would allow Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc to improve acceleration along Spa’s longest flat-out sections, including the run from La Source through Eau Rouge and Kemmel Straight, as well as the blast toward the Bus Stop chicane.

Ferrari arrives in Belgium with genuine expectations

Mercedes continues to enjoy an advantage in outright power, but the Maranello team’s recent progress suggests that engine performance alone may not decide the outcome of the Belgian Grand Prix. The SF-26 has evolved into one of the grid’s most complete cars, combining strong aerodynamic efficiency, improved tyre management and increasing race pace.

With Lewis Hamilton growing more comfortable behind the wheel and Charles Leclerc arriving at Spa fresh from his Silverstone triumph, Ferrari has every reason to believe it can fight at the front once again. If the planned technical adjustments deliver the expected gains in straight-line speed, the Scuderia could neutralise one of its biggest weaknesses and put even greater pressure on Mercedes in what promises to be one of the most closely contested races of the 2026 Formula 1 season.