With the spotlight now off the thrilling Dutch Grand Prix, attention has already turned to the upcoming Italian race in yet another back-to-back weekend on the calendar. The “Temple of Speed,” Monza, will welcome the Formula 1 circus in a few days, the stronghold of passionate support for the Scuderia Ferrari. Once again, this year, the Maranello team arrives at their home event with morale low and their focus on the next season, which must finally transform pre-race proclamations into certainties.
Similar to 2022, the performances offered by the SF-23 after the summer break have been quite disappointing. However, thanks to a strong effort and Charles Leclerc’s superb performance, the Prancing Horse secured pole position on Saturday and an excellent second place finish in the race. Comparing this to the observations from the Netherlands weekend, repeating last season’s result might seem utopian. At Zandvoort, the red cars were the fourth/fifth force on the track, once again trailing behind Aston Martin (both in qualifying and the race) and even being overtaken by the Alpine team during the race. We’ll never know how events would have unfolded on dry track conditions, but it’s likely that Carlos Sainz’s fifth-place finish was the best historic Modenese team could achieve on the Dutch rollercoaster.
Yet, Monza has often favored less competitive technical projects than the Prancing Horse. So, what could work in favor of the Italian team?
Monza: Reasons to hope for a “red resurrection”
Firstly, the layout of the Monza circuit, excluding the Parabolica curve, lacks high-speed corners of medium/low radius—this type of bends doesn’t suit the technical design of the 675 project in any of its releases.
The 066/10 power unit doesn’t seem to be inferior to any of its competitors, despite its unquestionable qualities often being hampered by a car with many shortcomings.
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Potentially, the Ferrari drivers could play a wildcard by homologating a fourth complete power unit allowed by regulations without incurring penalties. Naturally, this choice could only be exercised if all of the rivals except Pierre Gasly’s Alpine had already used up their quota.
The aerodynamic package specifically designed for the last speedway on the calendar, after Hockenheim’s removal in 2021, is set to be employed.
In terms of aerodynamic efficiency, the SF-23 should only be second to the Red Bull RB19, as demonstrated in the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa Francorchamps, where Charles Leclerc outperformed the midfield package.
Regarding tire degradation, another vulnerability of the SF-23, the low abrasiveness of the Italian track has led Pirelli to select the softest dry compounds in their range (C3, C4, and C5).
Furthermore, it’s worth noting that during the Italian Grand Prix, the Alternative Tyre Allocation (ATA) criteria will be experimented for the second time in qualifying, already tested in Hungary. The limited number of tires usable for a flying lap and the typically one-stop race should allow teams to use tire compounds more liberally in free practice.
Realistically, McLaren and Aston Martin might struggle on the long straights of the Lombard track, so Ferrari and Mercedes should vie for the title of Red Bull’s primary antagonist.
Everything needs to function perfectly, primarily the on-track operations management, which, even in the Netherlands, was tragically comical during Charles’ pit stop, despite his car being irreparably damaged after contact with Oscar Piastri.
Lastly, there’s Charles Leclerc, who has always thrived at Monza, even with improbable machinery (SF1000, before his crash at the Parabolica). The frustration and anger of the Monegasque driver due to another transitional season could serve as further motivation to bring a smile to the crowd, which this time will be draped in red. Ferrari red.
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