What upgrades are teams bringing in Budapest? | 2024 F1 Hungarian GP preview and performance prediction

Two weeks ago at Silverstone, fans witnessed the best race of the year. Mercedes, Red Bull, and McLaren fought on equal footing for the win. In the end, Lewis Hamilton narrowly edged out Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. The spectacle was further enhanced by the weather, but it would have promised plenty of action even in dry conditions.

The question is whether the balance of power at the front will remain just as close in Budapest or if there will be shifts. There are several changed variables that could influence performance. First and foremost is the track’s characteristics. Silverstone featured fast corners and long straights, while the Hungaroring is narrow and twisty.

Drivers and engineers must also adapt to the external conditions. In the British summer, teams dealt with cool asphalt, rain, and wind. In Budapest, an extreme heat battle awaits everyone involved. According to the latest forecasts, temperatures will exceed 30°C every day. There is no sign of rain. Cars will have to run much more openly, which will certainly impact some teams more than others.

Lastly, upgrades could also shift the picture. We expect all front-running teams to have new parts. Ferrari plans to try the Barcelona floor again, which was recently removed. If the engineers finally find a suitable setup with maximum downforce without bouncing, the red cars could perhaps be in the mix at the front – as was the case on the streets of Monte Carlo in Monaco.

The Track – Hungaroring
The Hungaroring, located about 20 kilometers outside Budapest, has been a regular venue for Formula 1 since 1986. The track, with its 14 predominantly slow and medium-speed corners, runs clockwise and is one of the slower circuits on the calendar. Eight corners are taken at less than 150 km/h.

Overtaking has always been extremely challenging on this technically demanding course. The long final corner before the not particularly long main straight makes it difficult for the car behind to follow directly in the slipstream. The two DRS zones before Turn 1 and Turn 2 have only helped to a limited extent in the past.

Qualifying and a good start are therefore always particularly important. During practice sessions, drivers and engineers focus heavily on single-lap performance. The time trial on the Hungaroring is a significant challenge. The key is not to overwork the tires in the first two sectors to have enough grip left for the final section. Overheating the tires early results in a disproportionate loss of lap time.

The run from pole position to the first corner is one of the longest of the year. The left side of the grid is on the racing line and offers significantly more grip. When the field bunches up before the first braking point, it often gets very tight. Crashes are more the rule than the exception here.

Setup
In the past, the Hungaroring was often compared to Monte Carlo – a slow track, only without the guardrails. However, in recent years, the character has changed because the cars have gained more downforce. Cornering speeds have increased. Slow corners have become medium-speed, and medium-speed corners have turned into faster sections.

Especially in the second sector, many corners are taken in fourth or fifth gear – unlike the street circuits in Monaco and Baku, which mostly feature sharp turns taken in second or third gear. Nevertheless, corner follows corner. The straights are short. This affects the setup. Maximum downforce is the mantra for the engineers. As the Hungaroring is very smooth and flowing in character, there are no excessive demands on the brakes and tires. However, drivers still need to be mindful of the rubber. In the race, given the expected very hot temperatures, the two harder compounds will likely be used predominantly. Due to the lack of long straights, maintaining a constant supply of fresh air to the power units is not easy. Especially in the lower rev range, a lot of power is needed to get out of the slow corners well. The suspension must also be tuned slightly softer to improve traction, reduce understeer, and smooth out the kerbs.

Technical Updates
The Budapest weekend marks the start of the final doubleheader before the four-week summer break. Many teams have announced new parts to make a final highlight before the holiday. At the Hungaroring, aerodynamic efficiency is less critical, focusing instead on maximum downforce. Air resistance plays only a minor role.

Mercedes arrives in the Danube metropolis with two consecutive race victories. Team principal Toto Wolff announced that they plan to add more technical updates: “We know we don’t yet have a car that can compete for wins every weekend. The team is working hard on further performance steps that we hope will enable this. We will continue these efforts in the next two races and until the summer break.” – he explained.

What exactly is coming is still unclear. We also expect another significant package from Aston Martin. Fernando Alonso recently hinted that after the race in Budapest, they would know where the journey in the second half of the season is heading. After the new front wing in Silverstone, we would now bet on a new floor.

McLaren had announced some time ago that they would introduce small steps in every race until the summer break. Ferrari intends to continue experimenting with the Barcelona floor, which has not yet brought the desired progress. It is quite possible that not only new setup adjustments but also new parts will be tested on Friday practice by the Maranello team.

Red Bull, as always, keeps a big secret about its development. However, the recent upgrade steps did not bring the desired effect. There are also many areas to address in the midfield. Kevin Magnussen at Haas needs to get to grips with the Silverstone package that brought Nico Hülkenberg to sixth place. Toro Rosso recently fell behind the US team because the B-version introduced in Barcelona flopped.

Favorites
Formula 1 has recently been as exciting as it has not been for a long time. In the first twelve races of the year, fans have already seen six different winners. There were as many in the 2012 season. Therefore, predictions are currently very difficult. The highly technical track and the high temperatures in Budapest could swing the pendulum back towards Max Verstappen. The setup demands maximum downforce. The kerbs are not a major issue. Red Bull can play to its strengths here.

We see McLaren as the second force. The MCL38 is always good when it comes to flowing through the corners. The papaya car has also recently shown superiority over the competition in tire wear, which could be an issue in Budapest. Mercedes should not be written off either. The qualifying strength of the Silver Arrows drivers could be a trump card in Budapest. And then, of course, the question remains, how significant the impact of the upgrades will be.

Scuderia Ferrari has had some difficult races. Therefore, we cannot unfortunately consider Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz at the very top of the favorites list. However, the layout of the Hungaroring circuit and the track conditions should suit the SF-24 single-seater much better than Silverstone did. The Maranello drivers and engineers need to reduce their error rate and finally get to grips with the bouncing issues. In this regard, the updated floor should play a crucial role. If it works, then a surprise could be possible for Ferrari.

There have also been many shifts in the midfield area recently. Haas scored heavily in Spielberg and Silverstone, getting close to Toro Rosso in the team standings. However, Budapest is not Nico Hülkenberg’s preferred hunting ground due to its layout. The switch to larger wings should put Toro Rosso back in a better position. We also see Alpine as a serious contender for the last points positions. The power deficit is less of an issue here due to the lack of long straights.