The cancellation of qualifying at Fuji has placed the #36 Alpine on pole position for a 6 Hours of Fuji that promises to be extremely complicated from both a strategic and weather perspective. Alpine will start from the front after setting the fastest overall lap across the free practice sessions, while several rivals now face a race shaped by incomplete preparation, changing conditions and major tyre-management questions.
The result is hardly surprising when considering the pace of the Alpine A424 throughout the weekend. Fuji has historically been a circuit that suits the French prototype, and Alpine was widely regarded as one of the strongest references in both long-run pace and qualifying simulations during the dry practice sessions.
For teams that concentrated more heavily on long runs, however, the rain during FP3 and the subsequent cancellation of the scheduled qualifying session proved costly. Their preparation was based on a different priority, leaving the starting grid and race strategy influenced heavily by the work completed earlier in the weekend.
Toyota endures difficult Friday as BMW prioritises race pace
The competitive order appeared relatively clear during the dry running, particularly across FP1 and FP2. Alpine was identified by many as the benchmark, showing strong performance both over longer stints and during qualifying simulations.
BMW was also quick during Friday’s race simulations. Its programme, however, was focused heavily on consistency with a high fuel load, meaning the rain that arrived for the final practice session did not work in its favour.
René Rast, part of the championship-leading #20 crew, explained that WRT only began seriously considering the possibility of qualifying being cancelled after Friday’s second practice session, despite heavy rain already being expected. As a result, relatively little work had been dedicated to optimising the car specifically for a single qualifying lap.
The #15 BMW will therefore start 14th, while the #20 will line up 17th. That leaves both cars facing a particularly complicated race in which the weather will need to be read accurately and the circuit is highly likely to feature mixed conditions.
Toyota could potentially benefit from that uncertainty. Mixed conditions had already been identified during the opening sessions as something that could help mitigate the difficulties experienced by the TR010 Hybrid.
Ryō Hirakawa’s FP1 lap puts the #8 Toyota eighth on the starting grid. After setting that time, the team moved in an incorrect set-up direction, while the grid position itself ultimately became valuable once difficult weather was expected for qualifying. Ryō Hirakawa acknowledged that the situation was worse than anticipated in terms of race pace, pointing to a lack of basic performance at Toyota’s home circuit.
That made Friday particularly important for Toyota because every minute of track time carried significant value. The problems encountered during those sessions left the Japanese manufacturer’s cars in a less comfortable position than hoped heading into the race.
Kamui Kobayashi explains Toyota’s tyre gamble
Kamui Kobayashi, part of the #7 Toyota crew, explained that FP2 work concentrated on the Medium compound for both race and qualifying simulations. Track temperatures were cooler than during the morning session because cloud cover had reduced the heat on the asphalt, but Toyota continued with the Medium rather than switching its focus.
In hindsight, Kamui Kobayashi suggested that this may not have been the ideal decision. “At the end of FP2, BMW tried the Softs and set very good times. We didn’t fit them because in FP1 they were moving around a lot and the lap times weren’t there,” the Japanese driver explained.
However, the conditions were sensitive enough that even a relatively small change could completely alter the competitive picture. “At the same time, only a small variation in conditions is enough for the situation to change completely, and this time the decision worked against us. When the temperatures drop, we’ll probably try the Softs again,” Kamui Kobayashi added.
The consequences leave the #7 Toyota in 13th place, although it remains relatively close to its championship rivals. Lower temperatures are expected during the race than on Friday, and that should also influence tyre thermal management. Under those conditions, the field is expected to converge towards the Soft compound.
Toyota’s engineers, according to the drivers, understood the direction they needed to pursue with the set-up ahead of the race. At the same time, an unfavourable Balance of Performance cannot be ruled out following the strong performance previously seen at COTA. Significant set-up changes had been prepared on the #8 for qualifying, but the cancellation meant those modifications could not be evaluated on track.
Kamui Kobayashi was encouraged by Toyota’s performance in wet conditions, whereas Ryō Hirakawa offered a more cautious assessment. Either way, the race is shaping up to be extremely difficult to interpret across several different areas.
Could the 6 Hours of Fuji be decided in mixed conditions?
The conditions expected during the race will be largely unfamiliar. Rain has washed the circuit, meaning the track will not have evolved significantly from the practice sessions. Keeping both dry-weather and wet-weather tyres inside their correct temperature windows will therefore be essential.
FP3 proved particularly useful for understanding how to keep the tyres alive, especially through the slow third sector. With cooler temperatures expected, warming up the dry compounds could also become critical. Michelin’s new tyres introduced this season are expected to have addressed this area to some extent.
Antonio Fuoco’s comments after Friday reflected that concern. “We used the Medium tyres in the morning because it will rain over the following days, and it was fundamental to make the most of the dry conditions and try to improve,” the Ferrari driver explained.
Antonio Fuoco added that Ferrari selected the Medium in the morning because grip levels were not particularly good and temperatures remained relatively high. With the conditions not expected to improve, the Italian driver felt it was important to begin testing race solutions immediately.
Antonio Giovinazzi shared the general view, describing the situation as similar to previous seasons at Fuji. The Japanese circuit remains difficult in terms of finding the correct set-up compromise for the Ferrari 499P.
Ferrari’s limited Soft-tyre experience could influence strategy
Mauro Barbieri provided further insight into Ferrari’s Friday programme, noting that aside from the #8 Toyota, the field appeared extremely closely matched. However, Mauro Barbieri cautioned against reading too much into outright lap times because of the rain expected during the remainder of the weekend, describing the competitive picture as broadly similar to previous years.
Mauro Barbieri also highlighted how closely packed the field had become, something that could play a decisive role in race strategy. “It seems that something has been done to keep the group a little more compact in terms of lap times, but overtaking has always been difficult, even on the straight,” the Italian explained.
That difficulty has previously encouraged teams to seek alternative strategic solutions. “That’s why in some races we’ve seen cars adopt different strategies to get themselves out of traffic,” Mauro Barbieri added.
Ferrari’s Friday programme concentrated primarily on the Medium compound. The Italian manufacturer has relatively limited experience with the Soft tyre, which could potentially prove useful on a damp track. That lack of experience therefore implicitly limits how aggressively Ferrari may be able to exploit the compound if conditions make it attractive during the race.
Looking towards the six-hour race, Ferrari and BMW are consequently likely to require aggressive strategic approaches. Track position could become especially valuable, and any neutralisation could provide an opportunity to move forward by changing the timing or structure of the strategy.
Aston Martin, Genesis and Cadillac also enter the Fuji battle
Aston Martin should not be discounted. The Valkyrie again showed encouraging single-lap performance in wet conditions, although its race pace remains a question. Genesis was among the manufacturers to complete qualifying simulations on Friday and made a positive impression on its rivals.
Mathieu Jaminet also described his car as competitive in dry conditions, continuing the positive trend seen over recent races.
The two Aston Martin Valkyries will start fourth and sixth. A penalty for the #007 promotes the #35 to the front row, while the two Genesis entries will line up third and fifth. Cadillac’s two cars will start seventh and tenth, putting them among the potential contenders as well.
More broadly, LMDh machinery has traditionally been comfortable at Fuji, and that trend has continued this year. Toyota and Ferrari currently show similar characteristics in terms of adaptability across different circuit layouts, with both tending to favour higher-speed venues.
With the grid shaped by cancelled qualifying, changing temperatures, limited Soft-tyre knowledge for some teams and the possibility of mixed conditions, the 6 Hours of Fuji promises to be decided as much by strategic execution as outright speed. The race is scheduled to start at 04:00 CET.
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